US, China meet in Nepal

By P Kharel

Nepal attracts intense interests from its two neighbours, India and China, which is not the least surprising given their ideological differences, populations, big border disputes and stiff competitors for trade and market.

But what is it that interests the mighty United States to Nepal? The answer should not tax any reasonable mind much. It is the China factor, the next top technological superpower, too. If the World Bank’s indicators are of any guidance, the Central Asian nuclear power should overtake the US within the next six years.

Contain China move is planted also in Nepal to distract and unsettle the oldest and largest existing communist country whose economic pace and progress at a breathtaking speed in the last three decades has made the world sit up for envious attention, if not raging anger.

Washington has used the Tibet card for more than 60 years since the 14^th Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959 and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru gave him asylum. The Buddhist spiritual leader was given land to build his headquarters, Dharmashala, in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh.  The Americans are believed to be contributing to the Dharmashala’s upkeep and more.

PATRON & PATRONAGE: With the Dalai as the patron of the Central Tibetan Administration, the Dharmashala stands as a reminder to Beijing and the rest of the world that the fight for independent Tibet is far from over.

That banner has suited fine for the West. The situation now serves it even better, what with China set to emerge as a globally dominant power rivalling the US, Europe’s benefactor and security-provider.

Delhi’s persuasion to allow the Dalai Lama’s visit to Kathmandu Valley and other Buddhist pilgrimage centres in Nepal did not work because of China’s sensitivity. Sometime in 1988, the Dalai was allowed to pay a visit to Lumbini, Lord Buddha’s birth place, for about 90 minutes.

The Chinese were pre-informed about the short trip and the Dalai was escorted by Nepalese security personnel from the Nautanwa border to and back from Lumbini on the condition that no programme would be organised or press meet held. Originally, the allotted time for him was one hour but it stretched by half an hour just the same.

The Dalai belongs to the “Yellow Hat” Buddhist sect, founded in the 14^th century in addition to three other already existing groups.

Nepal hosts about 18,000 Tibetan refugees since the first flock arrived here in the early 1960. Pressure is on Nepal for the last four decades to allow Tibetan refugees to settle in Nepal from whichever part of Central Asia they might arrive.

One of the demands is to issue Identification Cards to them without cumbersome procedures—a strategy some suspect is to enlarge Tibetan presence, bribe their way to obtaining citizenship, if possible, in a corrupt-ridden setup.

PUSHING HARD: Activities in which foreign communities of Western origin participate are at gumbas and at Tibetan gatherings constitute efforts at taunting the communists up North. In Kathmandu Valley, members of Western community turning up at functions to mark the Dalai’s birthday at Baudhnath and other gumbas, for instance, is aimed more at fuelling China’s fury than having anything to do with the spiritual aspect of the day considered special by his followers.

That’s how big power diplomacy works—not refraining to discretion but exhibiting defiance and disdain toward an “unfriendly” target. The approach is not confined to the West, though. Others on other continents join the bandwagon even if less loudly.

Since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022, the American embassy at Kathmandu’s Maharajgunj, a few hundred metres north of former King Gyanendra’s residence, flaunted its support for Ukraine against Russian troops into the former Soviet territory after Volodymyr Zelensky sought to join NATO military alliance.

But lo and behold, as soon as Joe Biden’s presidency ended and Donald Trump stepped into the White House on January 20, things changed. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump had claimed he would end the Ukraine conflict within three days after he became president a second time.

He won the November 2024 polls, and reiterated the boast that he would settle the Ukraine war in three days. As soon as he moved into the White House, and the US embassy in Katmandu conspicuously removed the East European flag from public display in deference to the just sworn-in president’s policy that is drastically different from the one the Biden administration pursued.

SHIFTING SIGNALS: The Ukraine flag display and its withdrawal must have been reported by other embassies in Kathmandu with their own inputs on what the implications were for local consumption.

If it’s the US entering, invading or engineering the installation of a proxy government, a trail of trouble cannot be far behind even if it quits the place in the face of prolonged and persistent problems left unaddressed. Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan are some of the recent examples.

Having dominated the international scene for so long, including the 1990s when humanity witnessed a unipolar world, Washington will throw all its weight, money and muscle power around to stem the slide in its global power and presence.

Among the 14 neighbours that China shares common land borders, Nepal is seen as the most vulnerable to INGO allurements to and dollar power on a whole crowd of political activists and intellectuals. On the surface, American interests in Nepal do not necessarily clash with India’s. Unlike the US, India cannot afford to confront China head on without risking grave consequences.  

Balanced relations maintained at an even keel are of prime consideration, especially for a small country like Nepal, flanked by giant neighbours that are at loggerheads with each other for six and a half decades. But cultivated options should never be lost sight of in order to meet contingencies in these times of fast changing global political landscape and associated unpredictability.