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By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel

In less than a week, the South Asian nation of Bangladesh will conduct its general election, almost two years after a student-led uprising. The two main contesting parties—the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami—will compete for power. The election is expected to ensure political stability in Bangladesh, a country that has witnessed repeated political upheavals. However, given Bangladesh’s strategic location, its immediate neighbors—India, Pakistan, and China—will be closely watching both the election and its outcome.

Since gaining independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh has experienced several political transitions. It has passed through phases of parliamentary democracy, military coups, and populist authoritarianism. Founded by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, popularly known as Bangabandhu (Friend of Bengal), he is widely regarded as the founder and father of the nation. Bangladesh also witnessed the assassination of its founder before finally establishing a relatively stable parliamentary democracy in 1991. Like many South Asian countries, Bangladesh has been affected by external interference in its internal affairs, leading to chaos and prolonged political instability.

At present, Bangladesh is governed by an interim administration under the leadership of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. This interim government was formed following a nationwide student uprising against poor governance and corruption. The student-led protests spread across the country and eventually ousted the Sheikh Hasina-led government, paving the way for an interim administration whose primary mandate was to conduct elections. Sheikh Hasina, currently in exile in India, was found guilty of allowing the use of lethal force against protesters, during which around 1,400 people reportedly died. She was tried in absentia by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal in November last year and sentenced to death, though India has refused to extradite her.

Now, nearly two years after the student-led uprising, Bangladesh is heading to the polls. Many domestic analysts believe the elections will ensure political stability, thereby laying the foundation for rapid economic growth and lasting peace. However, they also argue that the election results will be crucial in determining whether Dhaka aligns more closely with India or strengthens its ties with Pakistan and China.

Bangladesh’s relations with its immediate northern neighbor, India, have reached a historic low, in contrast to its warming ties with Pakistan. Until the ouster of Sheikh Hasina—widely regarded as pro-India—relations between Dhaka and New Delhi had been largely smooth. India has long viewed Bangladesh as a key strategic partner in maintaining regional security in South Asia. Economically, India is also Bangladesh’s largest trading partner. Between April 2023 and March 2024, India exported goods worth USD 11.1 billion to Bangladesh, including textiles, tea, coffee, auto parts, and agricultural products, while importing ready-made garments and leather goods worth USD 1.8 billion. However, following Hasina’s removal, both countries imposed restrictions on each other’s land and sea exports amid rising tensions. Addressing a gathering in March 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had remarked that India and Bangladesh had scripted a “golden chapter” in bilateral relations. Anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has since gained momentum following Hasina’s ouster.

Post-election, relations between Dhaka and New Delhi are likely to deteriorate further if the BNP—widely perceived as being close to China—comes to power. A BNP-led government is expected to scrap several agreements signed between India and the Awami League government under Sheikh Hasina. Moreover, it is likely to strengthen ties with Beijing as a key development partner and as a geopolitical counterbalance to India.

Highly placed reports suggest that Indian diplomats are reaching out to leaders of both the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, which are locked in a close contest. In an interview earlier this month, Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman revealed that an Indian diplomat had met him in December last year. However, New Delhi’s outreach efforts may prove futile, as Jamaat has consistently advocated for stronger ties with Pakistan.

While India seeks a government in Bangladesh that is receptive to its concerns and resistant to hostile external influences, Pakistan has also been actively engaging with Bangladeshi political leaders. In 2024, Pakistan’s prime minister met Muhammad Yunus with the objective of enhancing military and economic cooperation. Through such engagements, Pakistan aims to heighten India’s security concerns along its eastern flank by developing closer strategic ties with Bangladesh. For Islamabad, a BNP- or Jamaat-led government would help advance its regional agenda.

Amid this strategic contest between India and Pakistan, the emerging global power China has expressed its willingness to strengthen both economic and military ties with Bangladesh. In the current political context, stability in Bangladesh is crucial for China, particularly in safeguarding its investments in the region. It is widely believed that China has no explicit political favorite and will support whichever party secures a parliamentary majority, primarily to prevent US influence over the future government.

Regardless of who wins the election, the next administration in Dhaka will face immense pressure to maintain cordial relations with all its neighbors—India, China, and Pakistan. Bangladesh has already suffered from prolonged political transitions exacerbated by external interference driven by narrow geopolitical interests. It cannot afford to allow foreign actors to meddle in its internal politics, as this would risk plunging the country into another cycle of instability and crisis. It is hoped that the party which genuinely represents the people and addresses their concerns will come to power and work toward the socio-economic upliftment of Bangladesh’s beleaguered population.