Regional/International Affairs:

By N.P. Upadhyaya Kathmandu: A readout released by the Kremlin, Russian Federation, dated January 17, 2022, reiterates that President of Russia Vladimir Putin and the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan have had a long telephone conversation and the two leaders talked on various contemporary international issues of mutual concerns. Needless to say, PM Khan and Vladimir Putin are in the same political wavelength over these years. Afghanistan peace process and so many other international issues brought the two politicos closer much to the dismay and chagrin of Islamophobe Prime Minister Modi in Nepal’s neighborhood. Who dialed first whom is immaterial, however, what is significant is that the two leaders, one global leader and the other one almost South Asia’s near to a regional power, exchanged their views and the Kremlin claims that the “discussions were focused on the development of the Russia-Pak ties in different areas, including trade, the economy, energy, and the humanitarian sphere, as well as combatting the spread of coronavirus infection”. Afghanistan is missing in Putin’s readout but is registered in the Pakistani readout. To recall, the Bishkek informal talks that took place in the Kyrgyz capital between the two political dignitaries, PM Imran Khan and President Vladimir Putin on June 13, 2019, brought the two “poles apart and estranged” countries together to an unimaginable level over a short period “due to some political compulsions”. Wrote Niha Dagia for the Indian ‘Diplomat’, June 23, 2021, that “a volatile relationship between the US and Pakistan, the mounting confrontation between Moscow and Washington, and the growing U. S.-India strategic partnership have given Pakistan and Russia a Machiavellian cause to reassess bilateral ties”. She has recorded the Russia-Pak ties in its right perspective. It was the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meet in Bishkek that provided the platform to PM Khan and President Putin to inch closer with each other in the “changed” political alignments in the globe and more so in South Asia which has been reeling under the atrocities of the South Asian expansionist heartless force-India- the established regional ruffian. Both the countries have had their own urgencies to patch up their political differences of the past and embark on a new path that was advantageous to both Moscow and Islamabad. And thus the two countries, Russia and Pakistan, have had the pressing demand to come in an organized manner as Pakistan was completely “ignored” by its Cold war ally-the USA and the Indian establishment had left the Russian Federation-the successor of the now-defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), in the deep blue ocean and had joined the US camp. If Pakistan needed a “world power” of the sort of the Russian Federation instead of the USA, then the latter, the Russian Federation -- too was in the dire need to have a trustworthy partner in South Asia which could “substitute” trickster thug India. Both Pakistan and Russia found a suitable alternative to their former Cold War partners. So it is these new political alignments in the world that necessitated both Pakistan and Russia to embark on a new journey of friendship which was given a political boost at the Bishkek meet in 2019. Kyrgyzstan meet thus proved to be a turning point in the ties of Moscow and Islamabad. Since then, Pakistan and Russian Federation have come closer to an unimaginable level which has stunned not only the USA but this newfound relationship also has emerged as a potential threat to the Indian establishment which took the Indo-Russian friendship as private property. To a greater extent, Washington too is now obliged to approach Islamabad in a much more dignified fashion. In international relations, friendship is made to serve its core national interests. This way, the increasing Pakistan and Russian Friendship is the demand of the global situation and such geo-alignments and realignments shall continue till such a bonhomie proves beneficial to both the “contracting” parties. It is this need but not the choice, frankly speaking, which has brought the two “powers” together that is Islamabad close to Moscow and vice versa. Each country has its own political choice and preferences suiting its prime national interests. It is guided by their own national interests which the two countries expect to get served by the friendship with each other. Moscow and Islamabad are closer to each other till their interests converge or get served. If Russia wants to compete with the USA in South Asia by aligning with Pakistan and the latter too wants to exhibit to the world and more so to the USA that it could now join the Russian camp for obvious political reasons. The emergence of the new Pakistan-Russian axis is a natural phenomenon that is now in place to “balance” the global order. On a broader political logic, the proximity that is in existence for a few years or so in between Russia, China, and Pakistan could be taken as to have been obliged by the prevalence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which is a strategic security dialogue partnered by the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. The main political agenda of the QUAD is, as is being interpreted in some interested political quarters, to contain China. The QUAD is talked to be the brainchild of the USA which has the trade/business turnover with China running in billions and billions. As if QUAD were not enough, the US only recently created the AUKUS that comprises Australia, the US, and United Kingdom, and this is also fashioned to “tame or contain” China. This new security apparatus has annoyed France which says that it was betrayed by the countries housed in the AUKUS. Thanks, India, the South Asian bully has been kept out of the AUKUS. South Asia sans India equals permanent peace. However, on the political plane, the US concludes that it is China which if not disciplined on time may supersede its lone superpower status. The hard reality that stands today tells that China is already a world power almost at par with the United States, say knowledgeable sources. China yet is not a reliable partner to smaller countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka. With the advent of liberal President Joe Biden, expectations were high that the “confrontational attitude” in between the two, China and the US, shall be replaced by “competition or at best reconciliation”. But it is not so in practice which is there for all to see which then compels China to befriend Russia. And Pakistan being friendly to both is perhaps a perfect friendly match to both China and Russia for obvious political motives and reasons and the three, if wish to go along, can form much needed “axis” in the contemporary world which is sure to ensure world peace. China, Russia, and Pakistan axis if it takes a formal shape then the strategic power balance is tentatively complete and real. In other words, it could be implied that both Russia and Pakistan are shaping a new era of strategic partnership. Such opportunities make the South Asian region center of attraction of the world powers. It has rightly been said by scholars that the world politics has now shifted to South Asia and if it so, then Moscow-Islamabad increasing cordiality bodes well for the entire South Asian region except the Indian regime. The Indian establishment, on one hand, in essence, has joined the QUAD only to belittle the image of China through the use of its ties with the USA, and on the other hand, the US wants to “use and overuse” India under PM Modi to counter and compete China from all the possible angles. The Dalai Lama’s “permanent” presence in India is a sort of “China card” for both India and the US. Both India and the US would prefer to “tease” China from the Nepalese soil because from Kathmandu, to hit the Chinese underbelly, Tibet, is easier presumably. The effectiveness of the Dalai Lama appears to have gone down because of the quite “advanced” age of the Chinese/Tibetan political personality who cannot harm China’s relations with the outside world by floating the long-forgotten Tibetan issue in a “desired” manner aimed at pleasing other world powers. Not to forget is also the fact that if India uses the China card alias the Dalai Lama then what is also for sure that China will increase its penetration and intrusion in the adjoining Indian provinces more so China will try its best to hit the Chicken Neck, very close to Nepal’s eastern border. Arunachal is close to China from this neck. The rush of India, China, and the US in Kathmandu to increase influence perhaps speaks all these things unspoken. The question thus is Nepal being used just as “guinea pig”? Keep on guessing. Now back to the Russia-Pakistan friendship: To be candid, Moscow and Islamabad ties took an upward swing the day Ambassador Nikolai Kudashev stunned the New Delhi regime, 21 December 2020, when he spoke the Russian mind on Russia’s forthcoming ties with Pakistan, the arch-rival of India. Does this bonhomie signal the ushering of a grand “Islamabad-Moscow” coalition that has the silent endorsement of the Beijing authorities? What hit the Indian regime most was Ambassador Kudashev’s statement wherein he bluntly stated that “Moscow’s relationship with Islamabad is to further develop and that it is “independent” of their ties with India. Ambassador Kudashev spoke about what India doesn’t want to listen even. Let’s for the sake of expediency believe that this Russian political standpoint is taken on Pakistan at Delhi’s press conference molded the impending Islamabad-Moscow ties and gave it a new height. Ambassador Kudashev had said, “Russia’s ties with Pakistan are independent similar to our ties with India. We are going to develop this relationship (with Pakistan) further. We are focused on fighting terrorism, drug smuggling, and other issues. It is based on the same values based on which we have ties with India”. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavarov soon took a flight to Islamabad from Delhi. This was a subtle hint to Delhi. Notably and much to the chagrin of the Indian regime, Russia and Pakistan were an integral part of the Troika plus group which included Pakistan apart from Russia, China, and the US to find peace with the Afghani Taliban in Doha. In every talk designed by Russia for the Afghan peace process, Pakistani presence is there and that was also endorsed by the US and China. Thus Pakistan’s regional and International diplomatic image got enhanced in the process. However, much ahead of Ambassador Kudashev’s “diplomatic” outbursts were made, Khan and Putin have had already forged “comfortable cordial” ties with each other on a personal and country-to-country basis. Now with PM Khan talking over the phone with President Putin tells they are on the same political page on matters about Afghanistan’s “humanitarian crisis”. PM Khan is supposed to have centered his talks with President Putin, January 17, 2022, on providing humanitarian assistance to the starving, and shivering Afghani people, children included. Khan is learnt to have underscored that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan was pivotal for regional stability. Afghanistan is facing dire humanitarian and economic challenges and support of the international community to the people of Afghanistan at this critical juncture remained vitally important, PM Khan hinted Putin. Chances remain fair that PM Khan may meet in person President Putin in Beijing in early February, next month, at the inaugural ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Linda Lew, January 23, 2022, writes for the South China Morning Post that the Russian president is poised to be the first world leader to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in person since February 2020 and that the announcement comes at a time when major countries such as the US and Canada are considering a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics. If everything goes smoothly then it is expected that the TROIKA- Khan, Putin, Xi Jinping, may speak with each other in Beijing shortly. February 4, Putin is expected in Beijing. The meet will be eagerly watched and waited in Delhi as the latter takes China and Pakistan as enemies and concurrently is in a mood to mend its strained ties with Russian Federation. Delhi has now reasons to get disturbed as international media have reported that “Islamabad and Moscow are in serious talks to finalize the plan for what could be a landmark visit of President Putin to Pakistan this year. Delhi’s blood pressure must go up. That’s all.