- Saudi Arabia & UAE Locked in a Bitter Feud
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
In a news analysis, the New York Times writes of a ‘strategic split’ between the two regional neighbours Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (Vivian Nereim).
“For years, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates opted to resolve their disagreements and border disputes quietly, behind the scenes . . .
“Now it appears as if a dam has burst, with the consequences rippling across the region and beyond.”
This rupture between the two powerful and oil-rich Persian Gulf neighbours, both of which have cultivated vast global influence, has the potential to markets and exacerbate wars.
[Besides the vast differences in land area, GDP and natural resources, both are immensely rich. Saudi Arabia is undoubtedly a middle power, whereas the UAE is a small power attempting to play in the same league as the Saudis].
The unequal tug-of-war is most apparent in Yemen, where an Emirati-backed separatist group led a failed offensive last December to seize control of the country’s south, a region located along crucial global trade routes from the Western Pacific through the Strait of Malacca and the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.
The Saudis have pushed back forcefully, wrestling influence from the Emirates and declaring that the Kingdom alone will take responsibility for Yemen’s future.
Yemen has thus been mired for more than a decade in a civil war that involves a complex interplay of sectarian and tribal grievances and the involvement of regional powers (AP/Associated Press, Feb. 7).
Saudi Arabia sees this part of the Indian Ocean as its area of influence and considers the Islamic Republic of Iran as its main antagonist, especially as it is the supreme protector of the Sunni world and Iran that of the Shia.
To buttress this stance, it has signed a security pact with nuclear power Pakistan.
According to H. A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, the Saudi-Emirati quarrel is “a strategic split over what stability means in the Middle East.
Analysts say the bilateral tensions are spreading to other countries in the region, where the brotherly rift could worsen raging conflicts and fracture fragile alliances.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the ruler of the United Arab Emirates, have long been viewed as natural partners by their allies in Washington.
In 2015, their countries teamed up in Yemen, mounting a disastrous military intervention to beat back the rebel Houthis – supported by Iran – who had taken over the capital Sanaa.
However, in recent years they have diverged, supporting opposing groups in Sudan’s civil war,
Pursuing differing oil policies and entering into a heated economic rivalry.
Before the confrontation in Yemen, the Emirati and Saudi governments had publicly maintained a façade of brotherhood and cordiality, built on cultural and tribal ties.
But over a span of a few weeks, those niceties have descended into an ugly war of words.
Saudi commentators and state-owned media platforms now display open contempt for the Emirates, accusing decision makers in the capital Abu Dhabi, of seeding chaos around the region by supporting rebel armed militias in Sudan and Yemen.
They say that Emirati ambitions have become grandiose, and that it is time to cut the country down to size.
The UAE is, in fact, trying to punch above its weight. It is a small power behaving like a middle power.
However, in turn, Emirati elites grumble that Saudi Arabia is behaving like a domineering ‘big brother’.
In the past, the Emirates paid the salaries of some Yemini fighters, but Saudi Arabia has now pledged to cover salary payments for all Yemini government employees, civilian and military, for the foreseeable future.
This is a financial commitment of more than US $ Dollar 1 billion per year (Nereim/NYT).
This shows that the Saudis want peace and tranquillity on their southern borders.
On the other hand, Emirati officials have consistently denied financing or arming regional militias, including in Sudan, despite extensive evidence to the contrary.
They have also spoken of the split with the Saudis in oblique terms only.
“The Emirates have been the target of an unprecedented media campaign,” Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati official said at a recent conference.
“Differing opinions are normal. What’s not normal is wickedness in a dispute” (NYT).
In a news briefing on January 26, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said the kingdom’s relationship with the Emirates was “critically important” but highlighted a “difference of view” in Yemen, noting that the Emirates had “decided to leave” the country.
“If that indeed is the case, and the UAE has completely left the issue of Yemen,” said foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, then that would be a “building block” to keep the Saudi-Emirati relationship strong.
He put emphasis on the word “if”, appearing to underscore the level of discord and distrust between their two governments.
The Saudis’ concern with Yemen is understandable, since the UAE does not have a common border with Yemen, whereas Saudi Arabia shares a long land border with that country and wants it to severe its ties to Iran.
So far, the Trump administration has shown no desire to take sides.
Both countries are key players from which Trump hopes to win support for his Middle East policies, and both have nurtured substantial business ties with the president’s family.
As the bilateral crisis deepens, Saudi Arabia is moving aggressively to counter Emirati interests.
“As Riyadh sees it, trust with Abu Dhabi has been exhausted,” said Salman al-Ansari, a Saudi political analyst. “Words and reassurances no longer matter” (NYT).
A New Zone of Bilateral Conflict?
The conflict will most probably play out next in the Horn of Africa, the war-torn region located across the Red Sea from the Arabian Peninsula in the north-eastern extremity of the continent.
In Sudan, the two antagonists have backed opposing sides in a brutal civil war, with the Emirates supporting the rebel paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Saudi Arabia backing the official Sudanese Army.
Sudan plunged into chaos in April 2023 when a power struggle between the military and the paramilitary RSF exploded into open fighting in the capital Khartoum, and elsewhere in the country, leaving tens of thousands dead and millions displaced.
The devastating war has so far killed more than 40,000 people, according to UN figures.
It has created the world’s largest humanitarian crisis with over 14 million people forced to flee their homes.
It has fuelled disease outbreaks and pushed parts of the country into famine that still spreads as the war shows no sign of abating (AP, Feb. 7).
In November last year, the Saudi crown prince urged the Trump administration to broker a peace deal in Sudan, intensifying an international spotlight on the Emirates’ conduct there.
And in Somalia (on the north-eastern coast of Africa on the Indian Ocean), where Saudi Arabia has been a firm supporter of the central government in Mogadishu, the Emirates has cultivated deep ties to the breakaway region of Somaliland, bordering the Red Sea.
On January 12, Somalia announced that it was ending “all agreements” it had with the Emirates, citing “hostile and destabilizing actions” by the Emirati government (NYT).
Whenever the two (unequal) Gulf powers stand behind opposing sides, tensions are likely to rise, according to most analysts.
“We are bracing for the impact,” said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group (ICG), a research organization focused on resolving global conflicts.
“We expect this to escalate the war in Sudan and further divide Somalia.”
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