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By Our Reporter

Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda shifting constituencies before every general election no longer surprises anyone. It has turned into a habit, shaped less by political vision and more by a simple instinct to avoid defeat. His decision to contest the March 5 House election from Rukum East fits that habit perfectly. A leader who once drew crowds across the country during the insurgency years now looks for ground where the risk feels lower. That alone says a lot about how much his base has thinned.

Since stepping into electoral politics in 2008, he has never returned to the same seat. Rolpa and Kathmandu in 2008, Kathmandu and Siraha in 2013, Chitwan in 2017, Gorkha in 2022, and now Rukum East. Each move came wrapped in explanation. Sometimes it was duty, sometimes party need, sometimes symbolism. Strip away the language and one concern stands out. Losing an election would hit him hard. Not just publicly, but inside his own party and across the left camp where authority depends on the ability to win.

His exits from earlier constituencies also hint at fading appeal. Kathmandu shut the door on him in 2013. Chitwan, once promoted as his home base, became risky by the next election. Gorkha worked because alliances made the math safe, not because of deep local backing. These choices suggest a party leadership that no longer trusts its strength in places where it once felt confident. When fear of embarrassment grows, leaders push their top figure toward areas where loyalty still runs strong and questions are fewer.

Rukum East offers that sense of comfort. The district carries memories from the conflict period and still holds goodwill for former Maoist leaders. Prachanda’s promise to stay connected with both Rukum East and West is meant to tighten that bond. It also sends a message to cadres that this is a seat they are expected to protect at all costs. Still, nothing is guaranteed anymore. After the Gen Z protests, the mood has shifted. Younger voters care less about past struggles and more about work, fairness, and day to day pressures. Old reputations do not carry the same weight they once did.

The party changes after the protests add another layer to his move. A new name, fresh attempts at unity among communist groups, and Prachanda placing himself as coordinator all point to one thing. Anxiety. These steps came out of pressure, not confidence. The Maoist Centre has kept shrinking, surviving mainly through alliances. Standing alone now feels unsafe. In that sense, Rukum East is not only a constituency. It is cover from a wider slide.

There is also the personal risk Prachanda knows too well. Another defeat like the one in Kathmandu would follow him for the rest of his political life. His influence depends on the belief that he can still win elections. A loss would weaken his hold over allies and invite challenges from within. That fear explains the careful choice of terrain.

The real question is how long Rukum East stays safe. If anger keeps rising and young voters turn out in force, even familiar ground can shift. Prachanda has a long record of moving before trouble fully arrives. If signs turn bad, he may still search for another refuge. His survival in politics has always relied on sensing danger early and staying one step ahead of it.