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Washington, DC, Jan 6: Soon after the United States announced it had seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid sent a pointed message to Tehran. He said Iran should closely watch what unfolded in Venezuela.

Maduro’s forced removal came days after President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned of fresh strikes on Iran. The disputes Washington has with Caracas and Tehran differ in origin, yet analysts say the move against Maduro sharpens the risk of a wider conflict with Iran.

Jamal Abdi, head of the National Iranian American Council, said the action signals a breakdown of norms. In his view, this makes global politics less stable and raises the chance of war. He argued that Trump may grow fond of quick regime change operations or give Israel a green light for similar steps. Either path, he said, gives momentum to voices pushing for another war with Iran. Abdi also warned that Tehran could respond in ways that spark military action, such as building stronger deterrence or striking first to stop US or Israeli attacks.

Negar Mortazavi of the Center for International Policy shared that concern. She said the Venezuela operation shows Trump’s maximalist approach and weakens already slim hopes for talks. From Tehran, she hears no appetite for talks with an administration seen as demanding total surrender. With diplomacy stalled, she said, the road leads toward confrontation, placing Israel, Iran, and the US on a collision course.

Abdi added that the move deepens Iranian mistrust. It strengthens hardline claims that engaging Washington brings no gain and that Iran must secure itself through stronger defenses, even nuclear ones.

The raid followed months of harsher US rhetoric toward Caracas. American officials accuse Maduro of leading a drug network, and Trump has argued that Washington has a claim to Venezuela’s oil wealth. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also highlighted Venezuela’s links with Iran, alleging, without proof, that Caracas has helped Hezbollah gain ground in the region.

Iran and Venezuela have built close ties under heavy sanctions, expanding trade worth billions. With Maduro gone, Iran’s already small group of allies may shrink further, after the fall of Syria’s Bashar al Assad and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Tehran swiftly condemned the US action, urging the United Nations to step in. Iran’s foreign ministry called the raid unlawful aggression that threatens regional and global peace and damages the UN based order.

Rubio later said the operation sent a message to all US rivals: Trump follows through on his threats. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei responded with defiance, vowing not to yield and promising to defeat the enemy.

The warning to Iran fits a pattern. Trump recently threatened to bomb Iran again if it rebuilds its missile or nuclear programs. Israel and the US struck Iran in June, killing senior commanders, nuclear scientists, and civilians, and hitting major nuclear sites. Trump claimed success, yet Iran’s system held. Tehran fired hundreds of rockets at Israel, breaching air defenses until a ceasefire took hold.

Critics say regime change has long been Israel’s aim, an idea Trump seems to accept more openly. He has since warned that the US stands ready to strike Iran if authorities kill protesters. Abdi noted that Israel already tried to assassinate Iran’s top leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, raising the question of whether Iran could face a Venezuela style decapitation attempt next.