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By Nirmal P Acharya

The hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River officially started construction in Nyingchi City, Xizang Autonomous Region, China, this year. China’s ability to undertake such large-scale projects is unparalleled in the world. Once started, the speed is always faster than people’s expectations.

This project is definitely worthy of Nepal’s close attention. It is necessary for Nepal to thoroughly understand the impacts it will have on the Himalayan region and take appropriate preparations.

The project is not only a super hydropower station, but also a major variable that will exert complex impacts on the Himalayan region and even the whole of Asia. Its relationship with the future of the Himalayan region is multi-dimensional and profound.

Core Features of the Project

For ease of understanding, the key information about this “project of the century” is summarized as follows:

1. Basic Information

– Full Name: Hydropower Project on the Lower Yarlung Zangbo River (Yaxia Project)

– Commencement Date: July 19, 2025

– Investment Scale: Approximately 1.2 trillion yuan

– Development Mode: “Straightening bends and diverting water through tunnels”, with 5 cascade hydropower stations to be constructed

2. Project Scale

– Installed Capacity: Nearly 60000 MW, equivalent to 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Project.

– Annual Power Generation: Approximately 300 billion kWh

– Power Transmission Direction: Mainly transmitted to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Chengdu-Chongqing region, with concurrent supply for local use in Tibet

– Construction Period: Expected to take 10 years, with full completion scheduled for 2035.

3. Unavoidable Geological and Ecological Risks

The Himalayan region is among the most geologically active areas in the world. The project is located in a high-seismicity zone, making seismic risk a severe challenge that must be addressed head-on. Experts warn that the heavy load imposed by the massive hydropower project may trigger additional risks during earthquakes. Ecologically speaking, the dams will alter the natural hydrology of the river, exerting far-reaching impacts on sediment transport, biodiversity, and the downstream agricultural ecosystem. Although the project plan claims to have avoided high-risk areas and includes ecological compensation measures, the long-term ecological impacts of such large-scale development in a highly sensitive ecological zone still require careful assessment.

4. Complex Geopolitical Links

After flowing into India and Bangladesh, the Yarlung Zangbo River is known as the Brahmaputra River, which serves as a lifeline for hundreds of millions of people downstream. Therefore, countries such as India have deep concerns about water resource security regarding China’s construction of dams on the upper reaches of the river. This requires China to demonstrate a high degree of transparency and a spirit of cooperation in the project’s future operation. Chinese media have pointed out that China has precedents of successful cooperation with downstream countries (such as the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation) and emphasized that the project is in line with international law.

Future Outlook

Overall, it is a megaproject where development opportunities and risks coexist:

– Positive Direction: It may serve as a catalyst for regional development, drive economic leapfrogging and energy transition, and accumulate experience for ecological governance.

– Core Challenges: Its success hinges on whether we can address geological risks to the highest standards, minimize ecological disturbance to the greatest extent, and through sincere and transparent cooperation, transform the project from a potential flashpoint of international disputes into a model for regional cooperation.

In summary, the relationship between the Project and the future of the Himalayan region is a profound proposition about how a massive human-engineered project can coexist with one of the most fragile and sensitive regions on Earth. It not only embodies the ambition for development but also tests the wisdom to balance and manage complex risks.

Having written this far, my personal insight is that no matter how high and vast the Himalayas are, they will inevitably be traversed by China’s superlative infrastructure capabilities. I still remember that when President Xi visited Nepal in 2019, he promised that China would help Nepal transform from a “landlocked country” into a “land-linked country”. Now, we increasingly feel that this promise is of profound significance.