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By Our Political Analyst

With the 11th general convention of the CPN-UML just two days away, the party finds itself at a critical crossroads, exposed to a high-stakes internal contest that could reshape its leadership and influence over Nepalese politics. The party is split into two clear factions, one led by former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, whose support includes several top leaders like former Mayor Bidya Sundar Shakya, Thammaya Thapa, Krishna Thapa, and Navina Lama, and another led by senior vice-chair Ishwar Pokhrel, who has garnered support from leaders opposed to Oli, notably including voices aligned with former President Bidya Bhandari. The divide reflects deeper tensions over leadership style, policy priorities, and the distribution of power within the party, amplified by the strategic maneuvering ahead of the convention.

Oli’s camp has sought to consolidate its base and appeal to undecided delegates, who are expected to play a decisive role in the leadership vote. While the central committee figures initially suggested an advantage for Oli, the distribution of office-bearer positions has created potential vulnerabilities. Many of his supporters are themselves ambitious for posts, which could dilute their allegiance and shift voting dynamics. In some provinces, particularly Koshi and Bagmati, senior members have displayed a willingness to reconsider their loyalties if it benefits their political advancement, signaling emerging dissent within Oli’s faction.

Pokhrel’s camp has capitalized on these internal frictions by presenting a structured counter-proposal aimed at challenging Oli directly. The faction emphasizes collective leadership and collaboration, appealing to delegates and committee members seeking a balanced approach after years of perceived centralization under Oli. Senior figures like vice-chair Surendra Pandey have openly endorsed

Pokhrel, framing his leadership as experienced and capable, citing his tenure as general secretary and senior vice-chair as credentials that justify a credible claim to the party chairmanship. This positioning has resonated with members who have remained undecided, including those who previously advocated for controversial party decisions such as granting membership to former President Bhandari.

The numerical dynamics highlight the delicate balance within the party. Of the 354-member central committee, 293 members, including 12 office-bearers, currently align with Oli, while Pokhrel’s faction claims 43 members and six office-bearers, with a dozen members in contact with both camps likely leaning toward Pokhrel.

Delegate counts further underscore the uncertainty: about 45% of geographically selected delegates support Oli, 33% back Pokhrel, and 22% remain undecided, making these undecided votes potentially decisive in determining leadership outcomes. Both factions have already begun active campaigns, with Oli promoting “Save the Nation, Preserve KP Oli’s Leadership,” while Pokhrel emphasizes “Wisdom, Collaboration, and Collective Leadership under Ishwar Pokhrel.”

The complex delegate structure—including representation from eight provinces, 32 departments, mass organizations, electoral constituencies, and international delegates—adds layers of strategy to the convention. Delegate elections largely concluded smoothly, though minor disputes emerged in districts like Okhaldhunga and Dhankuta. With about 2,200 delegates, including confirmed central committee members, discipline commission representatives, and advisory council members, the convention is poised to be a rigorous test of influence, negotiation skills, and coalition-building.

The unfolding scenario suggests that the UML convention will be less a ceremonial event and more a litmus test for internal democracy, where factional maneuvering, office-bearer allocations, and undecided delegates could redefine the party’s leadership hierarchy. Oli’s prominence and track record make him a formidable contender, but Pokhrel’s organized challenge and appeal to collective governance indicate that the leadership outcome is far from predetermined. The next few days will be crucial, as every alignment and negotiation could tip the scales in this high-stakes contest.