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  • India’s BJP-led Coalition Heads for Landslide Win in Bihar State
  • Two Superpowers Revamping Their Militaries

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

Elections in Bihar State, India

People in India were following the state election campaign in India’s Bihar state closely for various reasons.

Now Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – at the centre and also in Bihar – is on track to win a key state election in a vote seen as a crucial test of his overall popularity in one of the country’s poorest yet most politically influential states (Rajesh Roy/ Associated Press, No. 14).

Leads and partial results from the Election Commission of India show Modi’s ultra-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party  (BJP)-led NDA headed toward a landslide victory in the 243-member state legislature in the eastern state of Bihar.

A simple majority to form the state government is 122 while Modi’s alliance was poised to cross the 200-mark with the BJP alone taking about 90 seats.

The final counting was still on, but the leads were substantial.

A victory in Bihar, the country’s third-most populous state with nearly 130 million people, is crucial as it sends 40 lawmakers – the country’s fourth largest contingent – to the 543-seat Loksabha or lower house of parliament.

Its control strengthens the party in power as the state is seen as a political bellwether setting political trends across India’s Hindi-speaking heartland (comprising the states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh).

This year, the two-phase election was held amid widespread public concerns over unemployment, law and order, and alleged irregularities in revision of electoral rolls (AP/Associated Press).

Bihar matters much to Modi

The election in the agrarian state was ahead of key state elections in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Assam over the next two years, and national elections in 2029.

The victory boosts the federal government, which has governed without a full parliamentary majority since last year’s national election forced the ruling BJP to rely on regional allies.

Modi’s BJP fofged an alliance with Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) to form the federal government.

These alliances are also Modi’s key partners in Bihar.

“It will give a great comfort to Modi to get Bihar under his belt. It will provide more stability to the government at the centre,” said Neerja Chowdhury, a political analyst (AP).

Celebrations have erupted in the state capital, Patna, with supporters waving party flags, dancing to the beats of drums and setting off firecrackers.

“This resounding public mandate will empower us to serve the people and work with new resolve for Bihar,” Modi said on ‘X’.

Modi’s alliance gets stronger

The BJP leads Bihar’s ruling alliance, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) at the helm.

Kumar, 74, has governed for nearly two decades, and is credited with improving the state’s infrastructure and ending its law-and-order problems.

Once an opponent of Modi, Kumar later joined the BJP-led NDA.

There was apprehension that a loss in Bihar could split Kumar’s party and threaten Modi’s federal coalition, which relies on 12 of his MPs.

Kumar’s party is set to win a little over 80 seats.

“The victory renews Modi’s and NDA’s political capital .  . . .

“India can be reasonably optimistic about political and chair at the US-based advisory firm, The Asia Group (AP).

The opposition falters

The NDA’s key opposition, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which allied with the Congress and other smaller parties performed poorly.

 A new group, Jan Suraaj, floated by Modi’s former poll manager Prashant Kishor faltered too.

Revision of Electoral Rolls

Before the elections started, the opposition led by Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi denounced the state’s revision of electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India, calling it politically motivated.

Nearly 10 percent of the state’s 74 million voters were removed from the lists since June, with opposition parties saying this disenfranchised poor and minority voters.

The poll commission insisted the revision was needed in the wake of large-scale migration of laborers, young citizens becoming eligible to vote and non-reporting of deaths in the state.

The election outcome suggests the issue did not resonate widely with voters.

Women voters turn game changers

In September, Modi made a move to appeal to wowmen voters, doling out cash transfers of 10,000 Indian rupees each to 7.5 million women as part of an employment programme.

Women form an important voting bloc as men migrate to metropolitan areas and bigger cities for work.

This was possibly the “game changer” for Modi and his team, said analyst Rasheed Kidwai.

He argued that the opposition overplayed issues of letter relevance to voters, while Modi and his allies appealed to people’s “hopes and aspiration”.

“They have cracked the art of winning election,” he said (AP).

U.S & China

Nuclear anxiety is building up in the international arena as China and the United States both reshape their armed forces (David Peterson/The New York Times, Nov. 14).

And Xi Jinping’s purges of the various branches of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are adding to the volatility.

China’s nuclear forces are expanding at a fast pace.

Yet behind that rise, the top leader Xi’s sweeping purge of generals, admirals and military leaders has exposed deep-seated corruption and raised questions about the country’s ability to manage its growing arsenal.

The uncertainty adds to domestic and international concerns about a new era of volatility in global nuclear politics, as President Trump has suddenly called for renewed U.S. nuclear testing [technically outdated] and as Washington is also pushing through major changes in its military.

Trump’s defence secretary [or cabinet minister], Pete Hegseth, has fired or sidelined at least two dozen generals and admirals over the past nine months, actions that are without precedent in recent decades and have come with little explanation.

“The shake-up has raised fears of growing political interference in a military that has long prided itself on peing apolitical” (Pierson/NYT).

In Beijing, Xi’s purges in the PLA cut far deeper.

He has carried out a clean-up that has shaken the Rocket Force, the branch that overseas China’s nuclear forces and is a crucial part of Xi’s ambition to build a “world class military by 2049.

Top commanders have disappeared.

Others have been jailed.

And defence contractors have been stripped of their party titles and detained for investigation.

Xi’s purges stem from a lesson he has drawn from history: that the communist party survives only when the army obeys one leader without question.

The writer can be reached at: shashimalla125@gmail.com