By Nirmal P. Acharya

In recent decades, Nepal has experienced continuous political instability. The recent outbreak of intense social unrest is mainly attributed to the fact that the country lacks a strong political party with the mission of serving the people.

Many people once placed their hopes for the prosperity and strength of the country and the nation on the left-wing communist parties. But what they witnessed instead was the fragmentation and internal strife of the communist parties.

The Communist Party of Nepal has numerous factions, such as the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center). Although they successfully merged into a unified "Communist Party of Nepal" in 2018 and formed a stable government for a while, the good times did not last long. Internal power struggles led to the dissolution of the merged party by the Supreme Court in 2021, returning the country to a divided state. This "when things are stable, they will eventually split" cycle makes it difficult for any political blueprint to be consistently implemented. Power struggles take precedence over national governance: even during the coalition government period, the various factions often had disputes over "power distribution" rather than focusing on national governance. This resulted in the government being unable to implement long-term policies, such as constitutional amendments and disaster reconstruction, which were often delayed for a long time due to this.

The 27-year-old IT engineer, Sangir Shakya, participated in the entire protest against the government. He said, "The demands of everyone were simple and direct: Just knock down this table. This group of people can't keep this up anymore." The "this group" referred to by Sangir included the leaders of the three main political parties in Nepal: the Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), Oli; the Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center), Prachanda; and the Chairman of the Nepali Congress Party, Sher Bahadur Deuba. Since May 2008, when Nepal abolished the monarchy and established a federal democratic system, a total of 10 people have held the position of prime minister. Excluding the two former chief justices who led the transitional government, the other eight were all from these three parties. And if we specifically look at the above three individuals, the first two have held the position of prime minister three times each, while Deuba not only served as prime minister twice since 2008, but also served three times during the monarchy period, and can be called a "prime minister professional". Among the 13 prime ministers in the past 17 years, none completed a full five-year term. Only Prachanda completed his 10-month term when he was in office for the second time, in accordance with the rotation agreement reached with the Nepali Congress Party.

For Nepal, the gradually unfolding new era picture is constantly being marred by dust and smog. On one hand, since 2008, the federal government has been led by the Communist Party for 80% of the time, and the mass base of the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) is undoubtedly extensive. On the other hand, during the period of intense national transformation and geopolitical changes, the two parties of the Communist Party have been unable to create a new political ecology and culture, and their core base has been increasingly unstable in recent years. Both the two parties and the Congress Party have been unable to secure a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, and the mutual boycott, defamation and attacks among the major political parties have been frequent, making it extremely difficult to implement plans for improving people's livelihood and economic growth at the parliamentary level, and the dissatisfaction of the people has thus accumulated year by year and deepened.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which entered politics with a "political clean stream" image, was unable to implement large-scale projects and land reforms during its previous terms of governance. Issues such as the return of its members' assets seized from landlords and entrepreneurs during the civil war became a prolonged verbal battle among the parties and the media, causing the leadership to gradually split and frequent internal disputes within the party.

In this immature political environment, the joint governance and rotational leadership of the three major political parties eventually degenerated into the "personal schemes" of the chairmen of the three parties. In Nepal, where the median age of the population is only 25.3 years old, the members of the "Prime Minister Trio" are 79-year-old Deuba, 73-year-old Oli, and 70-year-old Prachanda. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), which has undergone several integrations, has long become the "established party" in Prachanda's pen.

This protest began on September 4. The Oliphant government announced a ban on 26 social media platforms, including WhatsApp, Meta, and WeChat, restricting the freedom of speech of 30 million citizens in Nepal. However, the protesters generally believe that the prevalent corruption and economic decline in society are the deeper reasons for their participation in the movement.

Nepal will hold new elections in March 2026. However, analysts generally believe that the three major political parties will attempt to postpone the election date. Currently, Deuba, Oli, and Prachanda are all under great pressure within their respective parties and have been asked to resign as party chairmen. All three parties also plan to complete the leadership reshuffle by the end of the year. On September 26, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) made a decision on reshuffling. Prachanda said on the same day that he would no longer hold the position of the party chairman and would instead become the coordinator of the Party's General Assembly Organization Committee. Just two days earlier, Prachanda's former comrade, who also served as the Prime Minister of Nepal, Bhattarai also announced his resignation from the position of the leader of the Nepali Socialist Party, becoming the first Nepali political leader to resign after the "Z Generation Protest". 71-year-old Bhattarai said that the younger generation within the party should take over now.

Apart from the three major political parties, the two independent candidates who might run for election also have little chance of winning: Sudhan Gurung, the leader of the "We Nepal" organization and a 36-year-old man, has no political background. The representativeness, transparency and funding sources of his organization have also been questioned by some members of the Z generation. Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old rapper who has been the mayor of Kathmandu for three years, is seen by some observers as often acting "too hastily", and some even suggest that he has little connection with the protests. Bandari believes that no matter who wins the election in 2026, it will be difficult to bring about systematic changes. "From the end of the kingdom to the present, the bureaucratic system in Nepal has remained largely unchanged. Although the political system has changed and political parties always change, the entire bureaucratic system, from personnel to operation, from logic to substance, is still the same as it was decades ago. It will quickly corrupt any new faces. And if new people are in charge of the political situation, their governance will be weaker than that of the three old political leaders, and they will need more united forces, and the corruption speed will also be faster," he said.

In conclusion, within the current political framework of Nepal, the political party battles will continue, and the social unrest will persist until a great political party emerges in Nepal and a political path suitable for Nepal's actual situation is forged.