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Kathmandu, Sept 1. Meteorologists have warned that from the day after the Dashain Tika, Nepal is likely to see heavy to very heavy rainfall. The rain may trigger floods, landslides, inundation, riverbank erosion, and crop damage.

All three global forecast models show that a weather system starting on Friday, October 3 (Ashoj 17), could bring heavy to very heavy rainfall in Nepal and neighboring countries. The European model (ECMWF), the German model (ICON), and the American model (GFS) all signal the same pattern.

According to these models, the impact will begin in eastern Nepal on October 3, intensify on October 4 and 5, and bring heavy to very heavy rainfall in some areas.

Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has also issued a special bulletin, warning that rain on October 3, 4, and 5 could disrupt both air and ground transport due to floods, landslides, inundation, and riverbank cutting.

The DHM bulletin states:
“Monsoon winds are expected to remain active throughout this Dashain, and may even intensify toward the end of the festival. The resulting rain could cause landslides, floods, and disruptions to both road and air transport. Everyone is advised to stay alert and keep track of updated weather information.

According to DHM, a low-pressure system forming in the Bay of Bengal is expected to move inland through Odisha, India, and then toward central India. This will push moisture-laden monsoon winds into Nepal.

October 3 (Ekadashi): Monsoon activity likely to pick up in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces. Rain expected in hill and plain areas of these provinces, and light to moderate rain in other provinces. Some areas in Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini could see heavy rainfall.

October 4 (Dwadashi): Widespread light to moderate rain in Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces, with heavy to very heavy rainfall in a few areas.

October 5 (Trayodashi): Light to moderate rain in many parts of the same provinces, with heavy to very heavy rain in some areas. Extremely heavy rain is possible in one or two locations of Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, and Gandaki.

The DHM has officially forecast rainfall only up to October 5. But international models indicate rain may continue until October 7 (Ashoj 21), with Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces likely to be hit hardest.

Climate expert and disaster risk researcher Dr. Dharma Raj Upreti said, “Bagmati province looks most vulnerable. Based on current data, the impact could be severe.”

The system is expected to weaken by the evening of October 7, and rainfall across Nepal should taper off by night.

On average, monsoon enters Nepal on June 13 and exits on October 2. This year, Dashain Tika falls on October 2 (Ashoj 16), but the monsoon will still be active afterward, meaning its withdrawal will be delayed by a few days.

This year, monsoon arrived earlier than usual, entering Nepal on June 29 (Asar 16), about 15 days ahead of schedule. Forecasts had suggested above-average rainfall, but distribution was uneven. Madhesh province faced prolonged drought, drying up water sources, and forcing the government to declare several areas crisis-hit.

Meteorologists now say that from Dashain Tika day onward, even Madhesh province will see rainfall.

People’s News Monitoring