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By Arnika Bhandari

When Nepal’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Arzu Rana Deuba declined to attend the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Beijing, the reason given was her participation in the Gaura Festival in far-western Nepal. On the surface, it seemed like a routine cultural observance. Yet, in the world of South Asian geopolitics, such absences are rarely accidental. Rana’s decision revealed more about Nepal’s foreign policy dilemmas than the excuse suggested, reflecting her political leanings, her international connections, and the internal dynamics of Nepali politics.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s decision to attend the SCO highlighted his traditional tilt toward Beijing. Yet Rana’s absence softened the optics, ensuring that Nepal’s foreign policy did not appear to drift entirely into China’s orbit. This divergence between Oli and Rana is not accidental but reflective of Nepal’s internal political spectrum: Oli more Beijing friendly, Rana and her husband, former prime minister and soon to be the next prime minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, more inclined toward India and the United States.

Dr. Rana has long been regarded as a politician with stronger ties to India and the West. Educated abroad and deeply networked internationally, she represents the Nepali Congress faction that prefers alignment with democratic powers rather than authoritarian ones. Her absence from Beijing sent a quiet message to Delhi and Washington that Nepal was not marching in lockstep with China, even as Oli posed for photos in the Chinese capital.

But Nepal’s balancing act is not only about high diplomacy, it is about sovereignty. One of the most sensitive flashpoints in recent years has been the Lipulekh issue. Both India and China have signed agreements to develop trade and transit routes through Lipulekh, a territory Nepal claims as its own. Neither country consulted Kathmandu when making these arrangements.

China’s position has been particularly revealing. Beijing has publicly stated it does not wish to take sides in the Lipulekh border dispute between Nepal and India. Yet at the same time, it is willing to open a trade route through Lipulekh, effectively legitimizing its use without addressing Nepal’s sovereignty concerns. For many in Nepal, this shows that while China avoids overt confrontation with Delhi, it is happy to benefit from arrangements that sideline Kathmandu.

For ordinary Nepalis, sovereignty is non-negotiable, however, these maneuvers raise deeper questions. They see a troubling pattern: agreements signed over their heads, borders redrawn without consent, and leaders too cautious to confront the violations directly. If leaders attend summits but cannot defend Nepal’s claims over Lipulekh, is Kathmandu really protecting national sovereignty? If Nepal accepts Belt and Road projects but hesitates to confront Beijing and Delhi on border issues, can it be trusted to safeguard its territorial integrity? The anger seen in Lipulekh protests reflects this frustration, as citizens feel Nepal risks becoming a pawn in larger power games.

This is why leaders of Nepal tread cautiously. On one hand, they cannot afford to alienate China, which brings investment, infrastructure, and forums like the Belt and Road Initiative and the SCO. On the other hand, India remains Nepal’s largest trade partner, closest cultural ally, and the gatekeeper for much of its international commerce. The United States and Japan, meanwhile, see Nepal as part of their Indo-Pacific strategy and are offering increasing aid and investment.

Caught in this geopolitical triangle, is Nepal using internal political diversity as external strategy? The Gaura Festival excuse is a convenient cover rooted in culture but serving a diplomatic purpose. What this episode ultimately shows is that Nepal’s diplomacy rests on ambiguity. It cannot openly side with China, nor can it align exclusively with India or the West. Instead, it needs to maneuvers through cultural justifications, symbolic gestures, and divided leadership, leveraging uncertainty as its main survival tool.