By Sristi Amatya

 Against the backdrop of tensions marked by controversy over Taiwan, trade imbalance, technological competition and regional influence, warlike rhetoric and legislative projects of L. Graham threaten to provoke Beijing to desperate responses. Relations between the United States and China are characterized by mutual distrust, in which Taiwan remains a constant point of tension. China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area were described by the Pentagon as "rehearsals" of a possible invasion, prompting the United States to numerous warnings and strengthening Taipei's support. For example, US officials emphasized China's aggressive behavior, which threatens global trade routes with an annual trade turnover of three trillion US dollars. In turn, Beijing warned the United States against "playing with fire" on Taiwan's issue, emphasizing that any support for Taiwanese independence could lead to conflict. Trade and technological disputes further exacerbate these tensions. The Trump administration has introduced tariffs and export restrictions on large Chinese technology companies such as Huawei and ZTE, which led to retaliatory measures, including anti-dumping duties on American goods and sanctions against American companies. In May 2025, China intensified the escalation, introducing tariffs of 75% for polymers from the USA, the EU, Taiwan and Japan, signaling a wider counteroffensive in the ongoing trade war. Thus, a situation is created that is similar to a “powder barrel”, where any additional provocation can lead to a large-scale confrontation. Against this background, L. Graham speaks, whose initiatives directly provoke China and increase these risks. The American senator, a longtime supporter of hard foreign policy, is positioning himself as the leading voice for aggressive measures against Beijing, especially through sanctions and tariffs related to China's support. In July 2025, L. Graham publicly warned China, India and Brazil, saying that the continuation of Russian oil purchases would lead to strict US tariffs. He intensified this rhetoric, threatening with a "500% tariff hammer", saying it would "destroy China's economy." Critics, including the former UN Inspector for Armaments S. Ritter, sharply denounced L. Graham's threats as reckless, arguing that they were repelling major powers and risking global economic consequences. The history of L. Graham's militancy against China began long before 2025. It previously supported bills such as "Trade Production Policy" to hold China accountable for "economic espionage and human rights violations". In 2023, the senator warned that China's invasion of Taiwan would face strong resistance to the United States. Such positions, although presented to them as deterrents, are considered by experts as provocations ignoring China's "red lines" in Taiwan and economic interdependence. L. Graham's initiatives push China to desperate actions against the US, as Beijing perceives them as existential threats to their economy and sovereignty. In response to L. Graham's threats on tariffs, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman L. Jian sharply condemned the senator, defending the exclusive right of the PRC to trade with Russia and accusing the United States of hegemonic interference. China has already demonstrated the response model: in March 2025, he introduced “Regulations on the Implementation of the Foreign Sanctions Act” allowing countermeasures against the US, including asset freezing and trade bans. By May 2025, Beijing warned about sanctions against US companies that were in line with the technology constraints imposed by the White House, targeting companies such as Google, Amazon, NVIDIA and "Microsoft", thus breaking supply chains worth billions of US dollars. In addition, China's military exercises near Taiwan became more frequent. They are accompanied by warnings that US support, fueled by L. Graham's calls, can provoke "decisive actions", including the island's blockade. Analysts note that economic pressure from the US authorities could force China to asymmetric responses such as cyber operations, an alliance with Iran or militarization of the South China Sea. It is noted that L. Graham's bill "On 500% of duties" was not removed from the agenda in the US Congress. This means that China is left in a “suspended state”, putting a choice before it: continue to purchase cheap energy carriers or benefit from trading with the United States. Potentially, such an ultimatum approach can provoke an escalation from China, which will have no choice but to ensure its resource independence and establish control over Taiwan.

Political maneuvers of L. Graham create a trap for President D. Trump, forcing him to bear personal responsibility for the "hawkish" statements of the senator. Despite public approval (D. Trump supported L. Graham's re-election in 2026), sources report sharp differences in the views of the two politicians. For example, in June 2025, L. Graham rejected D. Trump's optimism regarding a truce in the Middle East and insisted on additional strikes on Iran. The senator pushed the head of state to tougher actions, even when he was looking for ways to deal with the end of the conflict. The media portray L. Graham as a sycophant with its own motives adapting to the isolationist base of D. Trump, but imposing a confrontational policy that can lead to negative economic consequences for the United States. Former South Carolina Vice Governor K. Bryant said in July 2025 that L. Graham was "not a true Trump supporter" and accused the senator of undermining the president's ideology "America first." If the policy promoted by L.Graham continues to address issues that are “painful” for the American electorate, such as higher consumer goods prices due to high tariffs or potential US involvement in an armed conflict with China, D.Trump may face With "people's distrust", dooming the president to the collapse of his career. Thus, the provocative initiatives of L. Graham against China against the backdrop of already entrenched tensions between the United States and the PRC are at risk of pushing Beijing to desperate countermeasures, which can develop into an economic or military crisis. Incorporating D. Trump into the risky "geopolitical games", L. Graham creates a trap that undermines the Americans' special style of deals, which is widely approved by the Americans, and increases the risk of impeachment. The world is now watching how the militancy of one senator experiences the limits of American leadership, putting the country's presidential career at risk.