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By Devendra Gautam

As a country, what did we learn from a limited 12-day war between Iran and Israel that could have easily escalated—first into a regional and then into a global war—with the United States throwing its weight behind a party to the war before acting as a peacemaker with facilitation from Qatar and Oman?

As a tenuous peace holds between the Mideast’s two nemeses, it will be worthwhile to ponder over the lessons for Nepal without delving much into the history of their relations. 

For better or for worse, remittances have become the mainstay of the national economy, constituting 22-26 percent of the GDP in recent years, thanks, per estimates, to more than two million Nepalis living and working abroad, around half of them in Mideast and North Africa (MENA). For instance, in 2023, Nepal received around $11 billion in remittances, accounting for more than 26 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, exceeding the combined inflow of official development assistance and foreign direct investment, according to IOM Asia-Pacific. 


In the first nine months of the fiscal 2024-25, Nepal received around $8.707 billion in remittances, representing a 10 percent surge compared to the same period in the previous fiscal, but the growth rate has decreased compared to the previous year. Statista projects the total transaction value in the remittances market to reach $13.35 billion in 2025, with an expected annual growth rate of 11.35 percent until 2030. 

With the national economy not in the pink of health, imagine the impact of return, en masse, of migrant workers from the Mideast, to say the least. This is not an improbable situation, given the recent return of Nepali nationals from the global economic superpower, the United States, with sacks behind their backs. 


The immediate focus

With proper planning and execution, the return of Nepali youths may lead to rejuvenation of the national economy in the long run. Before the realisation of that pie in the sky, the focus should be on the immediate.

Amid reports of Iran-Israel hostilities spiralling up, with America involvement in bombing nuclear facilities in Iran using its B2 Stealth bombers, the government faced the immediate challenge of bringing back Nepali workers caught in the war home. Bereft of any means, the government approached India, which pledged to rescue Nepali nationals while rescuing its own nationals from the warzone. 

A friend in need is a friend indeed. 

A standing mechanism

Still, given that a significant number of Nepalis have been working abroad, does it not make sense to put in place a standing mechanism for a swift rescue of Nepali migrant workers that may be caught in wars of national, regional and global dimensions, domestic unrest, natural disasters, hate crimes and all other kinds of emergency situations? After all, we have a government that collects taxes under different headings, partly for the welfare of the taxpayer, right?

The chokepoint

Amid heightened hostilities, Iran had made it quite clear that it will shut the Strait of Hormuz if push comes to shove. 

The shutting of the world’s busiest shipping channel, through which 20 percent of global oil and gas flows, could have significantly impacted our ill-prepared national economy, which ‘runs’, though quite sluggishly, on fossil fuels. India, the sole supplier of petroleum products to Nepal, imports these products from diverse sources such as other Gulf states, Russia and the United States, meaning we could also have escaped a debilitating impact of the Iranian move. 

Still, it makes sense for a country with a significant hydropower potential — at least enough to power its economy through the development of industries and transport systems, etc that run on hydropower — to lessen its dependence on dirty fuels, also in view of the fact that the import of such fuels accounts for a chunk of our trade deficit. For example, in the fiscal 2021-22, petroleum products alone accounted for 17.4 percent of Nepal’s total import bill. 

But we appear bent on creating an economy that relies heavily on dirty fuels, what with the operation of the Motihari-Amlekhgunj petroleum pipeline (South Asia’s first cross-border pipeline), its extension to Kathmandu via Lothar of Chitwan and the development of the Siliguri-Charali cross-border pipeline.

Conclusion

While a standing mechanism for the rescue of Nepali nationals caught in emergency situations can prevent loss of lives, the government, together with the private sector, must channelize its energies in creating jobs and a conducive environment for retaining youths within the country and reaping the population dividend. Here’s hoping that global headwinds against migrant workers provide the government a much-needed impetus.

Gautam is a desk editor and columnist based in Kathmandu.