By Nirmal P. Acharya

The air battle between India and Pakistan on May 7 saw Pakistan successfully shoot down 6 Indian fighter jets without any losses of its own, achieving an impressive 6:0 victory. Pakistan downed 3 Indian "F/A-18s", one Su-30MKI, one MiG-29 and one "Lark" drone.

This air battle between India and Pakistan marked the first time that China’s advanced military technology had defeated that of the West. Although China has already comprehensively surpassed the West in civilian products, the confrontation of advanced weapons was still unprecedented and of extraordinary significance. This air battle between India and Pakistan might be the first large-scale air battle since the Bekaa Valley air battle in 1982. According to the Pakistani side, 125 fighter jets engaged in fierce combat in the air for over an hour, with the maximum combat distance reaching more than 160 kilometers. In contrast, in the Gulf War, the war in the former Yugoslavia, and the Ukraine War, there were only zero-star air battles, and in the anti-terrorism wars, there was no air combat at all.

Therefore, this air battle can be regarded as a milestone, indicating China’s weaponry has surpassed that of the West. Pakistan’s victory was achieved in this way: The J-10CE is equipped with an active phased array radar, with a detection range of up to 180 kilometers or even further, while the F/A-18 has a range of only about 150 kilometers. Modern air combat is primarily beyond the visual range. Whoever locks onto the target first and launches the missile first wins, and in this regard, the J-10CE clearly outperforms the F/A-18. Additionally, the PL-15E medium-range air-to-air missile has a maximum range of 145 kilometers, which can form a kill chain loop of “enemy detection first - enemy lock-on first - enemy destruction first”.

There is a video on social media that was posted by local people in the Aklianakaran village of Punjab, India, showing that the aircraft wreckage was scattered all over the place, and the French “Mika” missile was still on the launch pad. This proves that the aircraft did not have time to launch the missile before being shot down.

This air battle will have a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. We will witness the decline of India’s regional hegemony and the acceleration of the multi-polarization trend in the region.

This is because India’s military deterrence has been weakened: The French “Falcon” fighter jets that India purchased at a high price were shot down, exposing its tactical system and technical flaws, and undermining the trust of regional countries in India’s military superiority. India may accelerate the promotion of domestic weapons (such as the “Aurora” fighter jet) and military equipment upgrades, but its weak industrial foundation cannot support India’s military ambitions.

Under such circumstances, regional countries will naturally develop a “de-Indianization” tendency. Countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka may take the opportunity to adjust their diplomatic strategies, reduce their unilateral dependence on India, and turn to greater cooperation with China, the US, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), or even push for the resumption of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to balance India’s influence.