By Nirmal P. Acharya

The border skirmish between India and Pakistan has flared up again. The cause was a shooting incident targeting tourists that occurred in the Indian-administered Kashmir region on April 22, resulting in at least 27 deaths and several injuries. Subsequently, the Indian side insisted that Pakistan was associated with the shooting incident and announced a series of tough measures against Pakistan on April 23. Pakistan did not give in either and subsequently announced a series of countermeasures of equal strength. The border skirmish between India and Pakistan that occurred on April 24 and 25 indicates that the shooting incident in the Indian-administered Kashmir region has escalated to a dangerous state of potential military conflict between the two countries’ armies.

Behind India stands the US, while behind Pakistan stands China. If India and Pakistan go to war, the US and China will surely intervene.

The conflict between India and Pakistan has always been a highly concerned issue by the international community. Especially when it comes to the possible actions that the US and China behind the two countries might take, the complexity of the situation becomes even more pronounced. The following analysis is conducted from the perspectives of historical background, interests of major powers, possibility of intervention and the methods of intervention.

I. Historical Background and Current Situation

1. Continuation of the Kashmir Issue. Since their independence, India and Pakistan have repeatedly engaged in wars over the Kashmir dispute (1947, 1965, 1971, 1999). In recent years, there have been continuous frictions near the Line of Control (LoC) between the two sides, and terrorist attacks (such as the Pulwama attack in 2019) often serve as the trigger for escalating tensions.

2. Balance between Nuclear Deterrence and Conventional Conflicts. Both countries are nuclear-armed nations (India conducted its nuclear test in 1998, followed by Pakistan), resulting in a “nuclear terror balance”. Although the risk of direct all-out war is relatively low, local conflicts (such as air strikes, and artillery bombardments) and proxy wars (such as infiltration by cross-border armed organizations) may still occur.

II. Strategic Interests and Positions of Major Powers

1. The US’ Attitude

- Role of India in the Indo-Pacific Strategy:  In recent years, the US has been courting India through the “Quad” (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and regards it as an important partner in countering China. In 2020, the United States and India signed the “Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement on Geospatial Cooperation” (BECA), deepening military cooperation.

- Possibility of Limited Involvement:  The US may support India through the following means:

a) Diplomatic Support: Advocating for India’s legitimacy at platforms like the United Nations and condemning Pakistan for “supporting terrorism”.

b) Intelligence and Equipment Support: Providing satellite intelligence, unmanned aerial vehicle surveillance, and precision-guided weapons, assisting India in quickly striking targets.

c) Economic Pressures: Threatening secondary sanctions against Pakistan (such as restricting its financing through international financial institutions).

d) Indirect Military Presence: Deploying aircraft carrier battle groups to the Indian Ocean for deterrence exercises (such as joint military exercises with India).

Considerations for Avoiding Direct Military Engagement. The US is deeply involved in various hotspots such as Ukraine and the Middle East and is wary of a direct confrontation with China in the India-Pakistan conflict. Therefore, it may adopt a “balancing from afar” strategy to avoid direct military intervention.

2. China's Position.

- The “Unconditional Strategic Partnership” between China and Pakistan: China has significant interests in Pakistan (such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Gwadar Port), and needs to support Pakistan to counterbalance India’s influence in South Asia.

- Possible intervention methods include:

a) Diplomatic mediation: Promote urgent consultations at the UN Security Council, call for a ceasefire, and prevent the escalation of the situation.

b) Military assistance: Provide anti-aircraft systems (such as the HQ-9), unmanned aerial vehicles (Wing Loong series), ammunition supplies, and assist Pakistan in defense.

c) Economic support: Maintain the stability of Pakistan’s economy through RMB swap agreements and emergency loans.

d) Border deterrence: Deploy troops at the China-India border (such as in the Tibet Autonomous Region), to contain Indian forces.

e) Red Line and Restraint: China has always advocated the “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence”. The possibility of direct military involvement is extremely low. However, if India attacks the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or threatens Chinese territory (such as the Kashmir Controlling Area), the response might escalate.

III. Possible Paths for Escalation of Conflicts and Major Power Competition

1. Local Conflict Phase: Both sides may retaliate through air strikes or artillery fire. At this stage, China and the US tend to communicate through hotlines to prevent misjudgment. For instance, after the air battle between India and Pakistan in 2019, both China and the US called for restraint.

2. Comprehensive War Risk: If the conflict spreads to densely populated areas or involves nuclear facilities, China and the US might jointly exert pressure to call for a ceasefire, or even promote a “major power guarantee agreement” (similar to the 1965 Tashkent Declaration).

3. Proxy Wars and Regional Impacts.

IV. Summary: Limits and Forms of Major Powers’ Involvement

- The possibility of direct military intervention is low: nuclear deterrence, global economic ties (such as China and India being each other’s important trading partners), and avoiding two-front warfare (the US needing to balance between Europe and the Middle East) will constrain major powers from directly participating.

- Indirect intervention will be the main approach: diplomatic pressure, intelligence support, limited arms sales, and economic leverage will become the main means.

- China’s priority objective: Ensure the security of the China-Pakistan Corridor and prevent India from establishing a “unipolar hegemony” in South Asia.

- The United States’ priority objective: Weaken China’s influence, but avoid getting involved in another Asian war.

Ultimately, the India-Pakistan conflict is more likely to be a “controllable crisis”. Although China and the US will express their positions, they are more inclined to facilitate a ceasefire through multilateral mechanisms (such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the United Nations) rather than getting deeply involved in military confrontation.

No matter how this conflict evolves, India will always have to face this fact: Americans come and go, but they will eventually leave. But China will always be by your side.

This fact is also something that Nepal has to confront as well. The MCC of the US was active in Nepal for several years, but then it suddenly vanished like a cloud. One day, the US will also suddenly leave. But China will always be close at hand.