German Foreign Affairs: New Challenges

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

The conservative Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CDU/CSU), and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) have announced a coalition agreement, bringing Germany that much closer to forming a new coalition government [more the rule than the exception].

It appears international friction and the recent tariff policies imposed by US President Donald Trump pushed party negotiators to reach an agreement, sooner rather than later (DW/Deutsche Welle, Christoph Hasselbach, April 11).

The trepidation caused by Vladimir Putin’s brutal aggression of Ukraine on NATO’s eastern flank also played a significant role.

Presenting the new agreement last week, Friedric Merz of the CDU, the country’s next designated Kanzler [or prime minister], said Germany was currently facing a “situation of growing geopolitical tensions.”

The response of the future coalition to these uncertain times, he said, was that “we want to, and we will, help shape change in the world, for Germany.”

Lars Klingbeil, the co-leader of the SPD, added that “this is a turning point. We are living in truly historic times.”

 When the new government takes office, expected in early May, it will be facing several important challenges on the world stage.

Trade Policies of the Future Government

Trump’s steep import tariffs and the countermeasures some affected countries have adopted in retaliation have sent global stock markets into a downward spiral and sparked fears of a global trade war.

As an export-driven nation, these tariffs have hit Germany particularly hard – and even more so given that its economy has been in recession for more than two years (DW).

The European Union manages trans-Atlantic trade, so Germany cannot act independently in this matter.

That’s why, in light of its economic vulnerability, the incoming German government is hoping to deescalate trade relations with the United States.

The coalition agreement states that Germany will aim for “a medium-term free trade deal with the United States,” while in the short term, “the coalition parties aim to avoid a trade conflict with the US and focus on reducing import tariffs,” on both sides of the Atlantic.

Given Trump’s recent series of volte-face, this approach might prove a bit too optimistic.

The Future of Germany’s Trans-Atlantic Relations

Merz has long been a staunch supporter of trans-Atlantic relations. He chaired “Atlantik-Bruecke” (Atlantic bridge), a nonpartisan organization dedicated to fostering US-German relations, for 10 years.

And while he‘s never actually lived in the United States, he does admit that the years he spent working for the US-based global investment firm BlackRock made him very familiar with the US mindset.

However, ever since Trump retook the White House for a second term, it would appear Merz’s faith in close trans-Atlantic ties has been rudely shaken.

When the US president – undeniably falsely – blamed Ukraine for Russia’s war of aggression, Merz clearly stated that he was “shocked by Donald Trump.”

And he was equally appalled when Trump and his vice president JD Vance, publicly humiliated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in late February (DW).

Germany meanwhile, fell out of Trump’s favour years ago, when former Chancellor Angela Merkel was still at the helm.

This was not least due to her open refugee policy, which apparently was a thorn in the side of the US populist/nationalist and diehard anti-immigration champion [although his own grandfather was an emigrant from Germany, and his third-wife Melania was also one from Slovenia].

But even though Merz has consistently distanced himself from Merkel politically [ rightly so as it now turns out ], a personal meeting between him and German-American Trump would likely be very awkward, to say the least.

Merz will not and cannot make good with Trump as Macron of France and Starmer of Britain!

Nothing has been planned for the foreseeable future.

Will Germany deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine?

Trump’s efforts to secure a peace “deal” for Ukraine have relegated European nations [and even NATO and the European Union/EU] to the role of spectators.

So far, he has only spoken directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin about a possible peace framework.

Ukraine’s Zelensky has remained sidelined from discussions, although it is Ukraine whose sovereignty and territorial integrity is at stake.

For all the world to see, Trump has taken the side of the ruthless aggressor – acting in contravention of international law and the United Nations.

Should an agreement emerge, it’s likely to amount to an imposed settlement for Ukraine – a clear appeasement of Putin’s Russia!

The dilemma for Germany and other EU nations will be whether they will have the stomach to accept such a cowardly result and even enforce it.

The incoming coalition appears to want to continue supporting Ukraine.

“We stand with the brave Ukrainian people. They can rely on,” said Klingbeil.

In reality, the coalition partners have yet to make a final decision on the matter.

Until then, it remains unclear how German military aid will proceed.

While he was still leading the opposition in the previous government under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Merz had advocated sending Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Scholz had consistently opposed the move fearing it could draw Germany into direct conflict with Russia.

It remains to be seen whether Merz is of a very different mettle!

Can Europe defend itself without US backing?

On election night in February, Merz admitted he was unsure whether Trump would honour the US collective defence commitments under NATO’s Article 5, should the need arise.

That’s why, he said, he wanted to strengthen European defence cooperation, “so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the US.”

[This was indeed a revolutionary suggestion, coming from a conservative supporter of close cooperation with the United States, which had guided Germany from the ruins of the Second approval World War to unification and beyond. It would be a political schism of immense proportions with ramifications for the world order].

Merz has already secured parliamentary approval for his esteemed financial pledge of “whatever it takes” to strengthen the Bundeswehr (German armed forces).   

Part of deepening European defence cooperation would mean exploring ways in which Germany and Europe might benefit from the nuclear deterrence offered by the continents two nuclear powers, France and the U.K.

Germany’s plans for military service

The incoming coalition had called for a gradual return to conscription in Germany.

Currently, the Bundeswehr has just over 182,000 active service members – continually decreasing from half a million soldiers during the height of the Cold War.

Should the new German government’s approach to military service – which it describes in the coalition agreement as “initially based on voluntary participation” – fail, it could easily return to universal conscription.

It was merely deactivated by law in 2011, not removed from the German constitution.

Germany’s “Zeitenwende” – Epochal ‘Turning Point’

In a perceptive essay in Foreign Affairs, Michael Kimmage (professor of history at the Catholic University of America) and Sudha David-Wilp (vice president of External Relations at the German Marshall Fund of the United States) make the case that Germany is on the cusp of making a paradigm shift in its foreign policy – the Zeitenwende or epochal ‘turning point’ in history has now arrived (April 11).

Kimmage and David-Wilp accentuate that “German leaders are poised to deliver the [domestic] transformation that [external] circumstances demand.”

Germany’s Autonomous & Joint Policy with the EU & NATO

Thus, the new Germany will be able to support Ukraine without having to follow the United States’ lead.

As the largest economy on the European continent, it can also play a paramount role in underwriting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and in urging the EU to accept Ukraine as a member.

Berlin’s push for autonomy [ from the shackles of a disjointed US policy vis-à-vis Russia, but decisive European leadership ] entails having to take responsibility for deterring Russian aggressive designs in Europe.

A Missing ‘Nuclear’ Umbrella

After the Second World War and for the past 80 years, West Germany and then a united Germany [ after 1990 ] – as also Western Europe had relied on the United States for its security.

The relationship was mutually beneficial, although the two countries always had their disagreements, as in the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Germany saw no mortal enemies on the horizon and viewed its safety as a function of the transatlantic relationship (Kimmage/David-Wilp).

When Vladimir Putin as the head of a newly resurgent Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted that there was “no military solution” to the crisis.

Merkel “wanted to avert a European war, by managing relations with Russia and preserving the U.S. commitment to Europe’s defence” (Kimmage/David-Wilp).

But for all intents and purposes, Merkel’s policies were a naked appeasement of downright Russian aggression in contravention of the UN Charter – and that by a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

This very short-sighted policy would later come to bite German leaders.

Merkel was followed by Olaf Scholz of the SPD.

In 2022, Scholz created a special fund of more than US $ Dollar 100 billion to upgrade German military capacity.

But the constitutional debt brake blocked more ambitious investments in defence and infrastructure.

Germany eventually accepted over one million Ukrainian refugees (more than any other country) and sent billions of euros worth of aid to Kyiv ( second-most after the U.S.).

Yet it was slow to address its own military deficits.

A New Direction

Scholz’s successor, Friedrich Merz of the CDU, is eager to reduce Germany’s reliance on the U.S. security umbrella.

In fact, Germany’s next leader is almost guaranteed to transform foreign and economic policy, a process that has already started.

In March, the Bundestag voted by a two-thirds majority to remove the debt brake, clearing the way for Germany to spend over a trillion euros on defence and infrastructure.

The physical and psychological transformation will have major repercussions for Europe and the world.

It is inevitable that Germany will play a more robust role in the EU and NATO.

It is also possible that it will strive to achieve a triumvirate of power together with the U.K. and France in order to contain the Russian menace – a role formerly taken by the U.S.

The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com