* Turkey: Erdogan Takes A More Authoritarian Turn

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

The New Strongman/Sultan of Eurasia

Turkey straddles both Asia and Europe, and Turkey’s President is taking advantage of the country’s geopolitical location in the crossroads of Eurasia and its role in the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to project a stronger persona.

The imprisonment of Istanbul’s mayor and the resulting protests have put the focus back on Erdogan’s political evolution. One considered a reformer, he has more recently mostly monopolized power (DW/Deutsche Welle, Stephanie Hoeppner, March 28).

Erdogan served as Turkey’s prime minister from 2003 to 2014, and since then he has been the country’s president uninterrupted.

The arrest and removal from office of popular Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has caused great consternation in Turkey.

Tens of thousands of people have been taking to the streets on a daily basis to protest against Erdogan’s anti-democratic moves.

There has also been international criticism [ although muted ] of the arrest of Imamoglu, a long-time political rival of Erdogan’s and the increased repression against the Turkish opposition and independent media.

The European Commission called on Turkey to “uphold democratic values” and the German Foreign Minister said that political contests “must not be conducted through the courts and prisons.”

Experts say Turkey has been on the path towards autocracy for some time now.

Since surviving an attempted coup in 2016, Erdogan has expanded his presidential powers and cracked down on opposition and political dissent.

Yet when he first took office, Erdogan was praised as a reformer.

Erdogan is from a working class neighbourhood

Erdogan was born in 1954.

His father was a coast guard and the family lived in Istanbul’s working-class and socially conservative neighbourhood of Kasimpasa.

He attended a religious vocational high school and soon made a name for himself as someone with a gift for public speaking.

The President himself has said that he graduated from Istanbul’s Marmara University in 1981, but according to the university’s website it only acquired its university status in July 1982.

So there has been some debate as to whether Erdogan actually has a university degree. This is, in theory, a prerequisite for the office he currently holds (DW).

Erdogan worked for the local transport authority and played semi-professional football.

In 1978, he married Emine Gulbaren; they have four children.

Erdogan’s political career began in the 1970s when he joined a religious and conservative party led by Neomettin Erbakan.

In 1994, he was, to the surprise of many, elected mayor of Istanbul, although he was not really well known in local politics.

In 1998, he had to resign the post after being sentenced to prison for reading a nationalist poem in public that was seen as incitement to religious hatred (DW).

Founding of the “Justice and Development Party” (AKP)

After his release Erdogan and other politicians founded the conservative and right-wing populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001.

Just one year later, the AKP garnered 35 % percent of the votes in a general election.

Although Erdogan was initially unable to serve as prime minister due to his conviction, in 2003 he was appointed to this office after a change in the law.

Erdogan’s Tenure as PM

During his three terms as prime minister, Erdogan managed to boost economic growth and was even praised internationally as a reformer.

So much so that negotiations with the European Union (EU) officially began in 2005 and the process led to Turkey modernizing laws and regulations at an unprecedented pace.

Erdogan pushed ahead with the development of infrastructure and the Turkish middle class expanded.

Gezi Park Protests: The Turning Point

The 2013 Gezi Park protests in Istanbul marked a turning point.

Although they started as a small demonstration against an urban development project 

For the park, they soon became a wider movement against Erdogan’s authoritarian policies and the increasing restrictions on freedom of expression.

The government reacted with a heavy hand, using tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets.

Eight people died and thousands were injured.

Erdogan described the protests as an “attempted coup” and used them to further consolidate his power.

Erdogan Expands Presidential Power

Erdogan has been president of Turkey since 2014 and ever since then he has continuously expanded his powers.

In 2018, he was given far-reaching powers when the current presidential system was introduced.

It abolished the office of the prime minister, making the president, who previously had had a more symbolic role, the head of the executive.

Another step was the drastic restriction of press freedom.

Numerous media outlets were shut down or placed under state control, making it increasingly difficult to criticize Erdogan and his entourage.

Journalists who dare to criticize the government are often intimidated or even imprisoned.

At least nine reporters covering the current protests about Imamoglu have been arrested already.

In the past decade, there has also been an increase in arrests of opposition politicians.

After the failed coup attempt of 2016, thousands of political opponents and academics were arrested of supporting terrorist organizations.

On the night of July 15-16, 2016, parts of the Turkish military (allegedly) attempted to overthrow the Erdogan-led government.

The government mostly blamed Fethullah Gulen, a reclusive US-based cleric, who has since died in exile, and his followers.

Since then thousands of civil servants, judges and public prosecutors were dismissed.

It is still unclear how the imprisonment of Istanbul mayor Imamoglu will affect Erdogan in the long term.

Turkey analyst Huercan Asli Aksoy at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (GIISA) says this is the “million dollar question”.

In an interview with the German media outlet Tagesschau, she explained that she thought Erdogan’s logic was working.

“Not necessarily because his approach is going down well with voters. But because he can rely on the entire state system, not only the political apparatus but also the judiciary” (DW).

What are the pundits saying?

Turkey’s arrest on corruption charges of popular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, viewed as the leading political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been met with protests – both internal and external – against the country’s authoritarian turn.

Imamoglu has a history of facing prosecutions and scrutiny that have hindered his political fortunes.

In 2019, Erdogan’s party contested Imamoglu’s mayoral victory, forcing a rerun, in which Imamoglu won again.

In December 2022, before Turkey voted in May 2023, a court barred Imamoglu from politics for allegedly insulting electoral judges – just as Turkey’s opposition parties were struggling to unite around a candidate to challenge Erdogan (CNN/Fareed’s Global Briefing, Fareed Zakaria & Chris Good, March 25).

Al-Monitor’s Amberin Zaman writes that the arrest of Imamoglu looks like a political mistake for Erdogan’s administration.

“If presidential elections were held today, few doubt that Imamoglu…would prevail in a landslide,” Zaman writes.

“For five nights running, giant crowds have assembled around the Istanbul municipality building in scenes reminiscent of the 2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine that forced pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych to step down….

“While Erdogan may well continue to hold on to power for the foreseeable future, the Erdogan who once inspired  hopes for a better, freer and more prosperous Turkey is now firmly buried in the past.”

The Economist writes that Turkey’s ongoing authoritarian slide  Erdogan retained power in 2023 and his renewed administration turned to more orthodox economic policies.

“Behind the scenes, Turkey’s authorities are going to great lengths to shield the economy from the country’s biggest political earthquake in years,” The Economist writes.

“Turkey’s capital-markets regulator has banned short-selling on the stock market….

“And in only three days last week, the central bank is estimated to have burned through up to US $ Dollar 26 billion of foreign-currency reserves to prevent a major run on the Turkish lira….

“The central bank has the means to defend the lira in the short term, and a green light from Mr Erdogan….

“But down the line, the bank might have to pause or reverse the easing of [interest] rates to protect the currency and avoid a new surge in inflation….

“Continued protests and brutal repressive measures by Mr Erdogan would further shake confidence in the economy….

“Ordinary Turks may end up paying the price for Mr Imamoglu’s arrest….

“The demonstrations show no sign of slowing….

“That suggests Mr Erdogan may pay one as well.”

The Economist may very well be very prescient….      

What next for Turkey?

The signs are not good, say Turkish experts.

After the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, the repression of protests, and the ongoing arrests of journalists and lawyers, Turkey seems headed for even more authoritarianism (DW/Burak Uenveren, March 30).

“What we are seeing today is the justified anger of the young generation, whose future has been ripped away from them as a result of prolonged authoritarianism and persistent poverty,” explains Turkish political scientist Begum Uzun, who teaches at MEF University in Istanbul and is also a co-coordinator at the Istanbul Youth Research Centre.

What the regime is doing against Ekrem Imamoglu goes beyond anything we have seen before,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University, who has conducted research into authoritarian trends in Turkey.

He said there had been an “unprecedented authoritarian escalation” and added that although journalists and academics had been arrested in the past, what was happening today brought a “new dimension” to the repression.

Esen says Turkey is no longer a “competitive authoritarian” regime, in which the opposition can, at least in theory, still win an election.

Now it is a “hegemonic and authoritarian” regime, similar to Russia or Venezuela, where a change of system seems almost impossible.

Despite all the pessimism, Esen believes there could still be a turnaround.

“Imamoglu has become a political symbol….

“Social resistance is strong because young people have nothing left to lose….

Esen anticipates a long, rocky road ahead and further deterioration, before things improve.

And until then, Esen concluded, “anything can happen. Really, anything can happen” (DW).

The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com