By Nirmal P. Acharya

Recently, direct flights between Pokhara and Lhasa have been launched. This is a landmark event marking the reconfiguration of the geopolitical landscape of the Himalayas after the US stopped providing funds for the MCC project.

After the US withdrew from the MCC project, there are almost no projects in Nepal or even in the Himalayan region that are supported by its “hard power” anymore. What remains are only “soft projects” under the concept of “democratic values”, and with the current Trump administration not being enthusiastic about promoting “color revolutions” and having disbanded the International Development Agency, the decline of the Americans' influence in the Himalayan region is foreseeable.

Then, the Himalayan region will enter a period where China and India compete for influence.

The competition between China and India in the Himalayan region is a multi-dimensional game involving geopolitics, economic strength and cultural influence. The differences in the advantages and disadvantages of both sides determine the differences in their strategic paths. The future trend may present the following characteristics:

1. Geopolitical landscape: Coexistence of long-term confrontation and local easing of tensions

- Limitations of geographical advantages: Although India enjoys geographical convenience in the southern foothills of the Himalayas, its lagging infrastructure has weakened its actual control capabilities; China has gradually compensated for its geographical disadvantages through the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, border road networks, and airport facilities, forming a strategy of “gaining space through infrastructure development”.

- Stalemate in border issues: Territorial disputes between the two sides are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, but neither side intends to escalate them into large-scale conflicts (such as the cooling-off after the Galwan Valley incident in 2020) and may maintain a “cold peace” by establishing more confidence-building measures.

2. Economic Influence: Structural Advantages of China vs. India’s Pursuit of Catch-up

- China’s “Infrastructure Diplomacy”: Through the “Belt and Road Initiative”, China is promoting projects such as the China-Nepal Railway and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in South Asia, using economic ties to bind Nepal, Pakistan and other countries, thereby weakening India’s traditional sphere of influence. China’s industrial production capacity and capital-output capabilities far exceed those of India, forming a “model of exchanging investment for influence”.

- India’s Passive Defense: India counters with the “Priority to Neighbors” policy, but is limited by insufficient funds and bureaucratic inefficiency, and its regional economic integration (such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for the Poorest Countries) has achieved limited results. In the future, it may obtain external funds through the US-Japan “Global Infrastructure Plan”, but its autonomy may be compromised.

3. Soft Power of Culture: India’s Accumulated Advantage and China’s Incremental Penetration

- Cultural Bonds of India: The cultural heritages of Hinduism and Buddhism, as well as historical ties with South Asian countries, still exert influence. However, the vigilance of Bhutan and Nepal against India's “dominant intervention” provides a breakthrough point for China.

- China’s Gradual Strategy: Through tourism cooperation (such as opening border ports in Tibet), educational exchanges (scholarship programs), and digital media (TikTok, short-video culture) to penetrate young groups, gradually dilute India's cultural monopoly.

4. Internationalization of the Camp: India’s “Westward Strategy” and China’s Countermeasures

- India Joining the “Anti-China Alliance”: The Indo-Pacific Strategy (QUAD) has enabled India to obtain security endorsements from the US, Japan, and Australia, but excessive reliance on the West may lead to the loss of strategic autonomy, especially in the context where Russia and India's relations are suppressed by the US.

- China’s Breakthrough in South Asia: Strengthening the “All-weather Partnership” with Pakistan, deepening cooperation with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and leveraging multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to contain India.

5. Internal Development: The Key to Long-Term Victory or Defeat

- India’s Challenges: If the caste conflict, regional separatism, and economic structure imbalance (such as the manufacturing sector accounting for less than 15%) cannot be resolved, its “great power ambition” will be constrained by internal strife.

- China’s Risks: Slower economic growth and population ageing may weaken its projection capabilities abroad, but the centralized system still shows advantages in crisis response (such as the rapid advancement of border infrastructure construction).

Scenario Projections for the Future

- Probable Scenario: Limited Cooperation amidst Normalized Competition

Both sides engage in limited cooperation in areas such as border control and climate change, while economic and security competition persist. China's influence in South Asia expands slowly, while India strengthens its maritime strategy relying on the QUAD (such as militarizing the Andaman Islands) as a countermeasure.

- Risk Scenario: Third-Party Crisis Leading to Proxy Conflicts

If the political situation in Nepal or Bhutan deteriorates, triggering proxy competition between China and India, or if the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is attacked by India across the border, it may trigger local conflicts.

- Long-Term Variables: Success or Failure of India's Internal Reforms

If India completes land and labor reforms and increases its manufacturing share, it may narrow the economic gap with China and reshape the competitive landscape.

Conclusion:

The essence of the competition between China and India is the collision of the paths of a “land power superpower” and a “regional hegemon”. In the short term, China enjoys the upper hand due to its economic strength and infrastructure capabilities, but India's geographical buffer and cultural ties remain resilient. The competition between the two sides will shape the Asian power structure in the long term, and the Himalayan region will become a key battlefield that tests the strategic patience of both countries.