By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel

Not long ago, a public event organized by the UML and attended by Prime Minister and UML Chairperson KP Oli in Kathmandu featured a placard that reads, we love you, KP Ba (Father Figure). The participants, mostly the party cadres, were seen donning a t-shirt featuring KP Oli in the gathering. However, things have now changed. At the just-concluded final match of the KP Oli Cup football, organised by an affiliate organisation of UML, the slogans rang against him. Is it justifiable to conclude that Oli’s heydays are over, marking the end of his political career? At the same time, who is posing a threat to his political career? We have to assess the ongoing political developments across the country to find the answer.

UML chairman and Prime Minister, KP Oli, has always hogged the attention of people from all walks of life. He stood by the people while the nation was struggling to respond to the consequences resulting from India's imposed economic embargo in 2015. His swift action to fight the economic sanction made him the darling of the masses, which catapulted him to prominence. But it is very interesting to note that, of late, the public anger against Oli seems to be growing.

Given the declining popularity of Oli within the party, Bidya Bhandari, after a successful tenure as the President of the country, has become politically active in the recent past. She has been reaching out to the anti-Oli leaders within the party and fostering ties with them. One who follows the Nepalese political spectrum easily understands why former President Bhandari is leaving no stone unturned in strengthening her ties and relationship with anti-Oli factions.

Bhandari became the second president of the country and the first female president from 2015 to 2023. She had a successful career, though she was criticised for allegedly taking the side of UML over some decisions. Now, after her retirement and even without an official political position, she remains one of the most powerful political figures in Nepalese politics. Leaders across the UML spectrum, whether allies, critics or emerging politicians, view the leader as the one to reckon with. After becoming the President, she distanced herself from the UML.

After her retirement, Bhandari has been desperately looking for the opportunity to make a strong comeback. While Oli’s influence appears to be fading within the party, Bhandari took it as an appropriate opportunity to make her presence felt within the party. Many political pundits say that Bhandari understood the situation and capitalised on it to the core for her personal interest. At a time when a former president has become politically active, some are raising questions over legal provisions. They argue that the constitution of Nepal is silent on whether the former head of the state can engage in politics after leaving office.

Amidst this constitutional ambiguity, she has been touring several provinces of the country with the sole objective of strengthening her relationship with the local and provincial leaders who are upset with Oli for disregarding them. The other objective of the tour is to bring them into confidence, assuring them that their political career will take a new shape under her leadership. In plain words, the tour is to set the stage to woo the local and provincial leaders to vote for her as the party chairperson during the upcoming general convention.

Bhandari is the widow of the late communist leader Madan Bhandari, who provided the ideological line to the UML. Many leaders – irrespective of their political ideology – acknowledge the role of Madan Bhandari in advancing the communist cause in the country.

While Bhandari is fostering her ties at the provincial and local levels, political observers in Kathmandu are claiming that Oli is sweating hard to please the senior leaders within the party. According to them, Oli committed a blunder when he suspended senior leaders and expelled Bhim Rawal from the party and stripped him of the party’s membership. This led to the tension within the party questioning his growing autocratic tendency.

Oli’s autocratic tendency is evident in both the handling of party affairs and his approach to governance. Oli is known to marginalise political rivals and consolidate power. His decisions often involved bypassing party structures and making unilateral decisions undermining the collective decision. Such modus operandi often upset the party rank and file and senior leaders and the opposition. One of the telling examples of autocratic tendency was his attempt to dissolve the parliament in 2020 – a move that was widely criticised.

The growing popularity of the former president certainly poses a threat to Oli, as he has been projecting himself as the sole architect of national progress. The rise of Bhandari within the party challenges Oli’s leadership and his working style. Given the existing situation of the CPN-UML marked by growing attack and counterattack among the leaders, the change in leadership seems the only option.

But Oli has the capability to turn the challenges into opportunities. He has done it in the past and could do it in the future as well. The party insiders close to Oli say that they do not see the former president as a threat challenging his leadership within the party.

As things stand now, one can say that the days ahead for Oli will not be a bed of roses. As a matter of fact, it will be fraught with innumerable challenges. The prominent one is the rise and growing popularity of the former president. So how he will tackle it remains to be seen. I wish him good luck.