By Nirmal P. Acharya

Our northern neighbor, China, after 40 years of arduous efforts, has grown from an agricultural country into the world's largest industrial power. Currently, China's industrial output value alone is equivalent to the total industrial output value of the rest of the world. This is an unprecedented phenomenon in human history. What does this mean?

1. Reconstruction of the economic and global landscape

- Core position of the global supply chain: China has become the “hub” of global manufacturing, dominating from low-end consumer goods to high-end electronic products. For instance, China produces approximately 80% of the world's air conditioners, 70% of mobile phones, and 60% of steel. This scale effect makes it difficult for the global supply chain to "de-Chinaize" in the short term.

- Double-edged sword effect: An economy overly dependent on exports may be impacted by trade frictions or fluctuations in external demand (such as the Sino-US trade war, and the decline in exports during the early stage of the pandemic). Meanwhile, China is promoting consumption upgrading by implementing the "domestic circulation" strategy to reduce its reliance on external demand.

2. Upgrading of Geopolitical Influence

- Technological Competition and Blockade: China's industrial strength has raised concerns among Western countries. The US has curbed China's technological upgrading through measures such as chip bans and entity lists. However, China has already established local advantages in areas like new energy (photovoltaic, lithium batteries) and 5G.

- New Model of “South-South Cooperation”: Through the “Belt and Road Initiative”, China exports its production capacity and infrastructure to developing countries (such as Southeast Asia and Africa), reshaping the global industrial chain division of labor and weakening the traditional Western-dominated economic order.

3. Historical Comparison: Uniqueness of Scale and Speed

- Surpassing the Industrial Revolution and Post-War America: In the 19th century, British industrial output accounted for approximately 20% of the global total. After World War II, it accounted for about 50%, but China's current scale far exceeds historical precedents, and its industrialization was completed in just 40 years (compared to a century for Britain). Such speed is attributed to policy guidance (such as the Five-Year Plans) and demographic dividends.

- Success of the “Non-Western Model”: China's industrialization path differs from the Western model dominated by free markets. The government concentrates resources through state-owned enterprises and industrial policies to break through key technologies (such as high-speed rail and ultra-high voltage power transmission).

China is undoubtedly worthy of Nepal’s meticulous attention and research. Another country worthy of Nepal’s careful study is the US. The US still exerts a tremendous influence on Nepal. Over the past few decades, while China has been undergoing rapid “industrialization”, the US has carried out rapid “deindustrialization”. Due to this deindustrialization, 200 million American industrial workers lost their livelihoods, and they were actually the backbone of American society. At the same time, the US also lost its national will, its national system was riddled with holes, and the government was fragmented. Along with this, there was also financial capitalization. The state only served and obeyed a few wealthy people. Extreme corruption phenomena such as "Lolita Island”, “Bragging Grandpa”, and “The President Grants Pardons to Whomsoever He Wills” emerged one after another.

Currently, China, which has achieved “industrialization”, is engaged in all-round competition with the US, which has achieved “deindustrialization”. What will happen next is bound to be shocking. We should observe and reflect at the same time, and find the correct positioning and direction for our own country from this. The average person across the world is equally ignorant, however, our ignorant politicians and influencers pose the real threat to Nepal by supporting policies that have led to endless wars and chaos everywhere. Our politicians and influencers seem to have a hard time accepting China’s rise and accomplishment because of ignorance or the payroll.