By Sunil KC

The unpredictability of Nepalese politics has come to the fore again. The KP Oli-led coalition government with a two-thirds majority in the lower house of the parliament that looked unshakable just a few weeks ago has suddenly become vulnerable. When the government found that it was just three votes shy in the upper house of the parliament to pass the ordinances the political equation suddenly became fluid.

Like this commentator mentioned in an article in this weekly a couple of weeks ago that in Nepalese politics tail wagging the dog is all too common seems to be coming out to be true. The present government despite having an absolute majority in the lower house is so close yet so far away to pass the ordinances it issued just a week before the commencement of the winter session of the parliament. To get that three votes in the upper house of the parliament the Oli government is wooing the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal making its chairman Upendra Yadav the focus of the present political game.

The JSP Nepal has just five seats in the 275-seat lower house of the parliament, but its three seats in the 59-seat upper house are crucial for the Oli-led government to pass the ordinances. The JSP had supported the current government in the parliament but had refused to join it. Rumours are rife that Yadav has put forth several conditions, like the position of deputy prime minister and a plum ministry either foreign or health if it were to support the government to pass the ordinances. Both these ministries are in the quota of the Nepali Congress party.

However, Yadav denied that he had put forth any condition and that his party had made any bargaining regarding supporting the government in the ordinances. “We do not want any ministry and we are not doing any bargain,” he told reporters earlier this week. He said that the party had not made any decisions and had been studying the ordinances minutely. “We will make our position clear only when the government puts the ordinances before the parliament,” he said. Contrary to the practice of introducing ordinances in the parliament for discussion on the first day of the parliamentary session the government has failed to do it and it will not do so until it is assured of its approval by both the houses of the parliament.

In the arithmetic of the Upper House of the parliament, the coalition partners of Nepali Congress (16), UML (10) and the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party of Mahanta Thakur (1) have 27 seats. Adding to it the two nominees, Bamdev Gautam and Anjan Shakya, by the president make it only 29 – one short of a majority. In the opposition, the Maoist Centre has 17, Madhav Nepal’s CPN (Unified Socialist) has 9 and Rastriya Janmorcha has one seat. That makes Upendra Yadav’s 3 members crucial to pass or fail the ordinances.

With Yadav dillydallying on his decision and the Oli government frantic in finding a majority to pass the ordinances, Barsha Man Pun of the Maoist Centre made a bombshell revelation last week, when he said that the UML has made an overture to his party to support the government in passing the ordinances. “UML general secretary Shankhar Pokharel called me and asked to support the ordinances,” he said at a programme earlier this week. The UML general secretary Pokharel in a social media post called his approach an attempt to seek the possibility of a broader communist alliance. This has raised many eyebrows within the Nepali Congress ranks. Does it mean the UML-NC coalition is about to break up? But the Maoist Center and Madhav Nepal’s Unified Socialist have ruled out of a broader communist alliance with Oli as the head of the UML. Prachanda explicitly said this week that there will be no alliance or any working relation with the UML with Oli at its helm.

But the passing of the ordinances received a further jolt when suddenly several leaders of the Nepali Congress, including Dr. Shekhar Koirala, came out openly against the Oli-led government and its approach to bypassing the parliament in issuing the ordinances and also against NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba for his silent approval of everything Oli has been doing and of being played by Oli. Another Congress member, Sujata Koirala even accused Deuba of being inept and ineffective in running the party and to exert pressure on Oli. This means the simmering discontent and differences within the Nepali Congress have flared up with an eye on the party’s national convention next year to elect a new leadership of the party. Now, there is every chance that a section of the Nepali Congress that supports Dr. Koirala will come out against the ordinances if it is tabled in the parliament.

If the ordinances fail to pass in the parliament Prime Minister Oli will be under pressure to resign on moral grounds. But things have gone beyond the issue of the ordinances with Prime Minister Oli being bogged down in censures and condemnations from all parties, including his own, on many issues of alleged corruption, favoratism and being prejudiced. Political circles are also abuzz with speculations of Prachanda and Madhav Kumar Nepal seeing it as a chance to settle their score with Oli are offering Deuba to head the next government if he breaks up with Oli. With him being barraged by accusations and opposition, it seems the water has started flowing over Oli’s head.