By Sunil KC

The winter session of the parliament began last Friday, and the opposition parties rolled up their sleeves to take on Prime Minister KP Oli. Still, he looks to ward off any onslaught against his coalition government after Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba threw his weight behind Oli.

The Oli government is facing accusations for resorting to ordinances instead of tabling them in the parliament especially the one related to regulating social media and another related to amendment in the land act. Regarding the one related to regulating social media, the government is facing vocal opposition from some within the coalition partner itself and also from outside. They say the ordinance has tried to gag the basic tenet of freedom of expression. Bishwo Prakash Sharma, one of the two general secretaries of the Nepali Congress, said that he was totally against passing the ordinance as it is. The Federation of Nepalese Journalists also opposed several provisions of the ordinance saying it was not consulted while drafting it.

In addition, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the fourth largest party in the parliament, has said that it will make strong demands for a special investigation commission under the present or former Supreme Court judges or a parliamentary committee to look into charges of corruption against all top leaders of the political parties, including those in the coalition government, such as the Giribandhu Tea Estate or the fake Bhutanese refugee case, the Omni or the purchase of wide-body aircraft for Nepal Airlines Corporation among others. Anyway, the current session of the parliament will see a lot of salvos fired between the coalition parties and the opposition. Despite the expected fracas in the parliament, the current coalition looks firm and the one who will be the most disappointed will be Prachanda of the Maoist party who has been frantic to capitalize on any cracks and fractures in the coalition.

While Oli looks pretty much comfortable on the executive chair for now with the full backing of Sher Bahadur Deuba, his chair as head of his own party seems shaky with dissenting voices brewing and those opposing him trying to prop up former president Bidya Devi Bhandari for an active role in the party to take on Oli. Bhandari herself has not denied the possibility of her entering into party politics. She was vice president of the party when she was elevated to the ceremonial position of presidency. In the meantime, Oli has continued sidelining his oppositions in the party to get a firmer grip on the party but the question is for how long he can hold on until the dissention within the party implodes.

The political equation might drastically alter when the Nepali Congress chooses its new leadership of the party. The second four-term tenure of Sher Bahadur Deuba as party president will end next year and the race to succeed Deuba is on. The question is, will the mantle of the party return to the Koirala family again? Dr. Shekhar Koirala, who lost to Deuba in the last national convention by a few hundred votes, is the main contender for the position. He is already on a countrywide tour to garner support in his favour. Many congressmen take Dr. Koirala as a moderate and having not been associated with controversies, unlike another aspirant Gagan Thapa, the current general secretary of the party, seen as brash and loud-mouthed and involved in several controversies because of his reckless statements, including alleged misuse of fund for goat farming. Meanwhile, there are other aspirants for the NC’s top position that may include Dr. Shashanka Koirala, son of BP Koirala. While those aspirants are seeking Deuba’s support for the party’s top position, Deuba might postpone the general convention for at least six months, permitted under the party statute, so that he could become prime minister one more time. Or, he might take a cue from the past by separating the party’s top position and the head of the government like when Girija Prasad Koirala had held the party’s top spot and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai had headed the government.

In the meantime, the tightening of the alliance between UML and NC has left Pushpakamal Dahal, chairman of the Maoist Centre, out in the cold. In addition, Dahal might be feeling the heat within the party as well. Dahal has remained at the helm of the party for almost four decades by quelling any opposition to his leadership either by brushing aside those challenging his supremacy or by pitting one leader against the other, his favourite tactic. He, however, is now under pressure to make way for a new generation of leaders. Recently, Janardhan Sharma raised voices in the party to make way for the second generation leaders for party leadership. In the recent election for the party’s student wing, Sharma’s supporters won 20 out of 33 seats. So, for Dahal, it is imperative to be in the executive power to maintain his hold on the party. In an effort to increase his bargaining power for a possible alliance with either UML or the Nepali Congress, he tried to band together several smaller parties and factions. However, when last week he took in about five dozen party men of Madhav Nepal’s Socialist Party into his party, saying this would not affect Nepal’s party or his relation with Nepal, it raised a red flag among other smaller parties whether Dahal is trying to split other parties. Upendra Yadav of a small Madhesh-based People’s Socialist Party said Dahal can betray or ditch any party or person if that serves his political ambition.

Thus, these kinds of political antics are a never-ending feature of Nepal’s political parties. Be it the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, Maoist Centre or other smaller parties in the parliament or outside, mergers, break-ups, divisions, factions or sub-factions have become the inherent characteristics of Nepalese parties since the country adopted a multi-party system in 2046 BS. This malaise has increased exponentially since the country was declared a republic in 2062 BS. When political parties define a multiparty system or a republican system of governance as a means to gain power by any means, ethical or unethical, irrespective of political ideology and principle, a stable government and stability in the political system is a far-fetched dream.