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By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel

January 20, 2025 was a very special day for many countries across the globe. It was the day when Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States of America amidst big fanfare. Unlike in the past, this ceremony was a little different because Trump has been viewed as the President making many wrongs right.

Trump became the President defeating his rival, Kamala Harris, in the election held last November. It was fraught with many challenges. He survived an assassination attempt during the election canvassing in Pennsylvania last year. Likewise, he faced many baseless allegations. But this did not deter him from contesting the election, and he eventually won it.

Following his inauguration at Capitol Hill on 20 January 2025, the President immediately signed several executive orders. Key among them were the withdrawal from the World Health Organization, tighter immigration rules, and exit from the Paris Agreement. Likewise, increased tariffs on Mexico and Canada and deregulation of AI, etc., were the other major orders.

It is believed that these policies are in line with his Make America Great Again slogan in the run-up to the presidential election last year. The ripple effect of these policies will be felt in every nook and cranny of the world. Nepal cannot be an exception. As a matter of fact, there are already telltale situations emerging from it.

The Nepalese students who were spending their vacation at home were back at their universities based in the US, though their university classes would begin after three weeks or even later. Not only this, many undocumented Nepalese immigrants living in many parts of America are already feeling the music. While campaigning for his election, Trump had said loud and clear that he would implement strict immigration laws to tackle the menace resulting from illegal immigrants from across the globe. As things stand now, many Nepalese living in the US could face mass deportation, threatening the livelihoods of many who support and contribute to their families back home.

The Trump administration will be very strict when it comes to H-1B visas and family-based immigration pathways. Likewise, it is very likely to reduce the asylum quotas. Further, its policy will certainly risk programs like DACA, leaving undocumented Nepalese students and workers in uncertain situations.

Economically, Nepal is likely to be hit hard. With strict immigration rules, the Trump administration is very unlikely to extend the temporary protected status, which is set to expire in June this year. The move can directly impact the 19,000 Nepalese beneficiaries. As a result, the inflow of remittances will be reduced, which will hurt the already ailing Nepalese economy.

While Nepalese contribution to global pollution is almost negligible, it is bearing the brunt of the activities of the developed nation leading to changes in global climate. It is a fact that Nepal is very vulnerable to climate change. The Nepalese are experiencing adverse climatic conditions, thanks to so-called developed countries. The September flood that swept away 244 people in Kathmandu is a case in point. As the Trump administration has exited from the Paris Agreement—a legally binding international treaty on climate change—it could face indirect consequences like that of the September flood in days to come as well.

Apart from climatic and economic challenges, Nepal faces challenges from a geopolitical perspective as well. Nepal comes under the US radar owing to its geopolitical location between India and China—the two emerging powerhouses of Asia. The Trump administration will certainly keep a close tab on Nepal with an objective to assess the activities of these two countries. On the other hand, the Millennium Challenge Corporation with USD 500 million to support Nepal’s infrastructure has been viewed as a strategic American plan to monitor the Chinese and Indian activities via Nepal. Under the Trump administration, the project is likely to intensify in the days ahead. Many believe that US-Nepal ties are expected to improve under the Trump administration. However, it calls for optimum maturity and diplomacy to avoid risks and maximize benefits.

Along with challenges, the Trump administration will also pave the avenues for many opportunities for Nepal. No doubt, his policies reflect a focus on US interests. But its global outcome will spur Nepal in taking proactive engagement on issues of bilateral ties and trade agreements and Nepal’s immigrant’s plight and grievances. 

Under Trump’s second inning, the US is likely to adopt a more protectionist approach emphasizing the America First principle. According to the World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution data for 2022, Nepal’s total exports amounted to approximately USD 1.3 billion. The primary exports to the US included carpets and other textile floor coverings. If the US imposes tariffs on imports from countries like China, Nepal could become an alternative supplier for US companies, potentially boosting its vital textile and garment company.

At the same time, Nepal should strategically leverage its geopolitical position through capacity-building efforts. A balanced foreign relations approach engaging both the US and China can maximize benefits while minimizing risks. The Trump administration is very likely to engage with Beijing, and this is where Nepal can benefit given its geostrategic location.

During this new era of US leadership, Nepal needs to make careful diplomatic moves that will serve to safeguard its not very well-articulated national interest. In plain words, it should focus on transforming challenges into opportunities and subsequently bolstering US-Nepal ties and relationships, be it politically or economically.