By Sunil KC

Nepalese politics never ceases to astonish by its unpredictability and volatility. If you take the most recent change of government, which was six months ago, with the two largest parties in parliament forming a coalition with almost a two-third majority, it was thought that it would have smooth sailing for the remaining three years, until the next general election.

However, the UML and Nepali Congress leaders, with Prime Minister KP Oli at the forefront, suddenly started denying in unison that the government was in trouble and almost shouting hoarse that it will not collapse soon is a telltale sign that the government is in a very shaky ground.

The government is battling one controversy after another following a series of missteps it has taken in the last six months. The latest is the government resorting to ordinances instead of calling the winter session of the parliament and the opposition parties accusing the government of trying to run away from the parliament.

One of the most contentious ordinances is to amend some clauses related to the law related to land. The main accusation is that it was actually a ploy by Oli to provide government and public lands to its party workers and supporters. But Oli’s government is saying the bill was to provide land ownership certificates to tens of thousands of landless and squatters many of whom are settling in government or public lands. The oppositions counter if so, why the government doesn’t table such an important bill in the winter session, dubbed as bill session, of the parliament?They are accusing Oli of trying to sneak in new laws through the back door in connivance with crooked real estate agents and the land mafia.

Again, there was growing disapproval within the Nepali Congress when Oli said that amendment in the constitution would not take place until 2087 BS well after the coming election in 2084 BS. Amendment in the constitution was one of the main agenda the two parties had agreed upon when their coalition was formed. Now, Oli is backing away from the agreement, senior Congress people say. They even say the rationale of this coalition is now over. This has made President Sher Bahadur Deuba caught in the middle. He has a burden to keep on carrying Oli on his shoulders - be it to justify his decision to break the coalition with the Maoists and other parties six months ago his greed to head the government in the coming election or to save top leaders of the coalition partners against many charges of corruption. That might be the reason he called the Congress ministers in the government, in the name of looking at their progress report, and gave them a stern warning not to utter or say anything against Oli or the coalition. But Congress ministers were reported to be saying in the meeting that they were finding it difficult to work under Oli’s administration.

However, not surprisingly, breaches of trust and the illusion of unity are far too common in Nepalese politics. When none of the government in the last three-and-a-half decades has been able to complete a full five-year term tell so much about government stability. When political parties feel that completing a full term in the government is an achievement to be bragged about, it tells a lot about the political system and the system of governance.

In the meantime, Ravi Lamichhane's case is increasingly being seen both by the public and even within the Nepali Congress ranks as a political vendetta to finish off their political rival and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) party he heads after the new party suddenly emerged as a potent force to challenge the political domination of the three biggest parties that have ruled the country, in various coalitions in the last twenty years.

Another controversy that has resurfaced relates to an attempt by the Oli government to give a license for a new stock exchange company in the private sector. The Maoist leaders, Prachanda and Barsha Man Pun, the then Finance Minister in Prachanda’s government, said this was one of the bones of contentions when their party was unified and was in the government. The Oli government two months ago appointed Santosh Narayan Shrestha, one of the proponents of establishing a new stock exchange company in the private sector, as chairman of the Security Board of Nepal. He said in an interview that he wanted a new stock exchange company in the private sector to expand the capital market in Nepal. The opponents say this will undermine the Nepal Stock Exchange, in which the government has a majority stake, virtually killing it off like the many industries the past governments after the establishment of the multiparty system sold and are no longer in existence. They accused that it was a deal worth billions of rupees in Oli supporting the establishment of a new stock exchange company.

Even on the foreign policy front, the Oli government’s incompetency and ineptness came to the front when Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba was completely cold-shouldered during her visit to New Delhi, following Oli’s near-disastrous visit to China. This means both China and India have looked at Oli as an amateur and imprudent leader. New Delhi’s annoyance with Oli and this government can be gauzed by the incident, as reported in the media, that Ram Madhav, a senior official of India Foundation, a think tank in New Delhi, sought an explanation giving political space to Arzu Rana Deuba, by meeting her, during her recent visit.