By Shanker Man Singh

The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States of America marks a significant shift in international relations affecting both Nepal and the volatile Middle East. America is the world's superpower and everyone admits it. So any political change or upheaval that may happen there affects the entire world.

There are many US investments around the world. Politics in the US will affect business and stock markets around the world, as business is purely a guessing game. Any small political wave primarily affects business which reacts to it positively or negatively, depending on the nature of the wave. Nepal is no exception.

The question of changing the name in the American presidential election is the same and will remain the same. Clinton to Barack Obama to Trump to Biden to Trump again for the second time to Tom, Dick and Harry.

Nepali politicians and people should understand as soon as possible, that Americans are very strategic and they put American interests first. Therefore, although Trump's relationship with Nepal is a very small part of the context of his world relations, it will be relevant to ask if he will be friendly since Nepal is a country between India and China.

Trump's return to the US presidency in 2025 will reshape foreign policies with particular impact on South Asia and the Middle East. Known for his unpredictable diplomatic style, his second term is expected to usher in a period of tension, strategic realignment, and diplomatic changes affecting countries in the region.

South Asia's Tense Prospects

Trump's return brings both hope and anxiety to South Asian countries. His unconventional diplomacy, characterized by often bold moves and aggressive stances, will create another atmosphere in the region. South Asian countries, especially Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan, are closely watching how Trump's second term will affect their future political and diplomatic landscape.

Sri Lanka and Nepal:

Trump's policy towards Sri Lanka and Nepal may follow his broad pattern of limited engagement unless there are immediate geopolitical concerns. In Sri Lanka, as his administration may respond to any shift in Chinese influence, Trump's focus will likely be on maintaining strategic alignment rather than directly interfering in their internal affairs. While Trump is trying to curb China's influence in the region, he thinks that Nepal's complex balancing act between India and China can draw constant attention. Nepal may face difficulties with immigration policies and possible cuts in development aid, which could affect Nepalese students, businessmen and investment opportunities in the US.

 Also, Trump's strong partnership with Israel and the support of leaders like Modi could strengthen Netanyahu. Hamas' position, potentially leading to an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. This dynamic raises questions not only about the shape of regional alliances but also about the future of peace efforts in the Middle East. The Trump administration may strengthen the US-centric strategy in global affairs, which will affect Nepal's relationship with the US and overall regional stability.

At first glance, Trump has broad plans for a second administration. Here's what he's proposed -- the president and now-president-elect often skimped on the details, but more than a year of policy announcements and written statements outlined a broad agenda that tilts traditional conservative approaches to business and populism on tax, regulation and cultural issues.

Changing America's International Role

Trump's agenda would scale back the federal government's efforts on civil rights and expand presidential power. Market watchers believe Trump victory could boost spending in the United States, potentially keeping inflation up. In addition, a stronger dollar and higher trade barriers can also be expected. The fundamental strength of neighboring country India is strong.

An outflow-led correction or adjustment in the past month should therefore be reversed. In the medium to long term, positive results should emerge from India's constructive relationship with both the United States and Trump. According to some analysts, a Republican administration under Trump could significantly reshape trade dynamics with increased tariffs and a more protectionist stance on international trade.

What Trump Victory Means for Nepal:  

With Trump's return to politics, his potential second term could reshape Nepal's economic landscape through changes in trade, immigration, and defense policies.

Trump's "business-centric" approach to politics and his strong relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has significantly impacted India-US relations, although his policy preferences create both opportunities and challenges. During Trump’s second term, his administration's trade, immigration and defense policies could transform India's economic landscape. While Trump's policies may initially strain India-US trade, they may also provide opportunities.

As the US continues its "China plus one" strategy aimed at diversifying supply chains away from China, India could attract more investment and trade as an alternative manufacturing hub.

Immigration:

Impact on India's Workforce Indian professionals, especially those in the tech sector, may face challenges under Trump's immigration policies.

After Trump's election, the dollar strengthened, most stock markets turned green, and the bitcoin market hit an all-time high. Regarding Nepal, the US dollar reached its highest level in four months. The dollar index reached 105.5 while counting was underway. The value of the US dollar in Nepal has reached its highest point yet. On October 20, the price of the dollar reached 134.89 rupees. On November 7, the selling rate of the US dollar reached a record high of Rs 135.16.

Nepali rupee has fallen to the lowest level due to the US election the Indian currency became weak. An increase in imports for consumption leads to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Due to this, the media has analyzed that the demand for the dollar has increased.

Generally, when the dollar value increases, the money sent by Nepalis working abroad increases the remittance income. A rise in the dollar will provide relief to the export trade. But because the export of goods is limited, it is difficult for Nepal to take advantage of the exchange rate. Nepal's relationship with America is from time immemorial and after the establishment of diplomatic relations on April 25, 1947, Nepal's economic relations have been strengthened. The exchange of high-level visits has also made a significant contribution to smooth Nepal-US relations. The United States of America has always supported the development of Nepal's socio-economic situation.

 The Treaty of Commerce and Friendship in 1947 and the General Agreement for Technical Assistance in 1951 have contributed to strengthening the bilateral relations between the two friendly nations. In recent times, the US has invested in the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in Nepal. It has also invested through MCCC.

Nepal has always considered the American market as an important market for Nepali products. Many handicrafts, paper products, jewellery, gems, and stones are exported to America. For the past decade, the US has been our leading importer of ready-to-wear, an industry that has a history of helping to reduce poverty and create high employment rates.

Apart from hydroelectricity, Nepal also has great potential for tourism. The best market that Nepal can provide in the international arena is tourism. Therefore, the development of the tourism sector can bring a big change in the livelihood and economic status of Nepal.

With or without duty-free and quota-free provisions, Nepal currently exports nearly 200 items to international markets including the US. If this part of export is measured by the modern trend of trade, it seems that Nepal needs to do more homework to promote its products. Nepal signed the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the US in April 2011.

The U.S. has said it is committed to deepening ties with Nepal and breaking down all barriers that could hold back Nepali producers and exporters. American support and assistance are also needed to achieve the national goal of bringing Nepal from the least developed country to the group of developing countries.