By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel

On November 4, the Presidential election of the United States of America elected the 47th U.S. President. The election was keenly observed by the global community, as its outcome plays a key role in shaping the global order—both economically and politically. The Republican Party candidate, Donald Trump, defeated his rival Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party becoming the 47th President of the USA. What was projected to be a neck-to-neck fight between Trump and Harris, the just concluded poll was nowhere as such. As a matter of fact, Trump outshined his contender Harris soon after the counting began.

Trump has made one of the historical comebacks in America’s political history. He has silenced his critics, who always view him as an outsider in American politics. His return will certainly play a significant role in the domestic and international political landscape. A leader who speaks his mind and is known for his ‘America-first’ approach, Trump’s historic win has sparked a debate in South Asia.

Immediately after his victory, there were growing voices among the people about what could be the political order in South Asia. The international media are presenting their own assumptions and speculations. Likewise, the experts have their own views and opinions. Similarly, the think tanks have their findings. This clearly illustrates that President-elect Trump, sooner or later, will pay attention to reshaping the political order in some South Asian countries, which hold strategic importance to America.

India, under the leadership of Modi, has several reasons to be delighted over Trump’s return to the White House. Trump, in his victory speech, said that he does not like wars and conflict. This is an indication that he will support India in fighting terrorism along the India-Pakistan border. He also said that he intends to build on his past relations with India, which include building trade ties and opening up more companies for India. The other area from which India may benefit is Trump’s stance on China. Trump, in his first tenure from 2016-2021, initiated a sort of cold war with China, imposing heavy tariffs on Chinese products. He was very vocal about introducing even stronger tariffs on Chinese goods, hinting at 100% tariffs on China.

Many experts say that this could provoke China to retaliate, leading to economic tensions between the two economic giants. It will open a window for India to capitalize on the situation, helping its economy grow further. However, this is not to say that India should solely rely on the US to restore peace along the India-China border. It should work independently to handle its border issues and diplomatic relations with China. Additionally, the Trump administration may continue to support India’s aspiration for a larger role on the global stage, including potential backing for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

In the recent past, China has been trying to expand its influence in the region, be it politically or economically. Through projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, China has been leaving no stone unturned to reduce the West's dominance. Trump is viewed as a person with a hard stance on China. His position could limit China’s ambition for political and economic influence in the region. Consequently, this could contribute to stability along the India-China border. 

Apart from India, Trump’s victory has also had an impact on other South Asian countries, including Pakistan and Bangladesh, which have witnessed political turmoil in the recent past. Pakistan has witnessed the worst political upheaval in the recent past. In 2023, the then Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was arrested in charge of a number of cases that included allegations ranging from corruption to terrorism to rioting. The arrest triggered widespread protests demanding the release of cricketer-turned-politician Khan.

Khan said that it was politically motivated to point his fingers at the West. He alleged that the West plotted the conspiracy to remove him from the government because of his refusal to stand with Washington on issues against Russia and China. Now, Pakistan’s speculate that Trump’s return to power could lead to diplomatic support for the release of Khan. No doubt, under Trump’s administration, the US-Pakistan saw notable engagement with Trump’s South Asian policy sometimes aligning with Khan’s approach. But this should not be taken into consideration that Trump’s victory will affect the political future of Khan.

Just recently, Bangladesh experienced a political upheaval that forced the then Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, to flee her country and take shelter in the neighboring country, India. The new caretaker government, under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus, the Noble Peace Laureate, was formed. The media report says that Yunus has been a longtime foe of now-exiled Hasina. It also says that Yunus has very close ties and relationships with Democrats in the US. Yunus' journey with Democrats began when Hillary Clinton met him through his former American wife in the United States.

Because of his proximity to the Democrats in the US, Yunus is politically vulnerable. During the election campaign, Trump had assured the Hindu Americans that his government would exert pressure on the Bangladesh government to ensure the safety of religious minorities. This means Trump could extend his support in bringing Sheikh Hasina, who is a close ally of India, to power to translate his word into action.

Trump will assume the office on 20 January 2025. He has promised to settle many issues, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, ending Obamacare, and beginning deportation of migrants.