The Himalayan Republic Must Make Its Domestic & External Environments Trump- & Fool-Proof

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

The Trump Factor

With the election of Donald J. Trump to another tenure as U.S. President, Nepali decision-makers are now confronted with a new, evolving geo-political situation.

We can expect no favors from Trump, who is solely motivated by personal benefits first, and U.S. national interests second. His means to achieve these ends are purely transactional.

The Himalayan Republic will have to tread especially careful in the fault line of the mighty Himalayas.

Considering what Trump has said several times, the U.S.–China relationship in many sectors will be very fraught.

Considering the spectrum of the relationship from cooperation to competition to confrontation – expect the needle to jump wildly to confrontation.

Considering that China is our next door neighbour, and that the United States is very far away with its own selfish interests under Trump, our foreign policy stance will be strictly neutral in the new Sino-American Cold War.

However, in spite of our neutral, non-aligned stance, we will definitely have to consider our long-standing economic, cultural and political relations and, therefore, lean to one side [which side, it is quite evident].

This means that American development projects will be particularly suspect.

At the same time, this does not mean that K.P. Sharma Oli has to go with a begging bowl to Beijing to request the waiver of the Pokhara airport loan.

Instead, the government has to find ways and means to pay off the loan in installments, perhaps partly from the remittances of our migrant workers.

The Indian Dimension

The Himalayan Republic has to consider not only the impact of the Sino-American relationship, but also the fundamental Sino-Indian rivalry.

Considering that Indian PM Narendra Modi has a special relationship with Trump, Nepali decision-makers must be wary of any joint pressures coming their way.

They must consider all aspects of Nepal’s relations with our southern neighbour and avoid unnecessarily irritating it, as has Oli, which is against our fundamental interests. The unnatural state of Indo-Nepalese relations must be repaired. We must strive to make it ‘business as usual’, but keeping them at arms length.

This means that Oli must somehow retreat from his cartographic adventurism vis-à-vis India.

The ‘Hopeless’ Domestic Situation

Unfortunately, like the Americans, we have got the very government we deserve.

The domestic situation is in a horrible mess and the Congress-CPN-UML government is in no position to chart a balanced foreign policy.

There can be no progress if we do not discard our ‘begging mentality’.

We do have the human and material resources to chart our own unique way [not the ‘highway’!].

And even younger leaders are not non-existent who have the necessary innovative spirit and vision – Balen Shah and Gyanendra Shahi come to mind. Hopefully, they will have the courage to step forward to take on a national agenda.

The writer can be reached at: [email protected]