• State of the US Presidential Race
  • Bangladesh Consolidates
  • Sri Lanka’s Close Presidential Election
  • Assembly Elections in Kashmir
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla U.S. Nov. 5: Another Violent Election? America has been warned. In 2020, as then-President Donald Trump sowed doubt about US elections – notably, questioning the validity of mail-in ballots – some, even then, wondered if he would accept a loss. Fareed Zakaria, the well-known CNN-host had observed presciently in late September 2020 that Trump might lose the election, refuse to admit it, and try to stay in the White House anyway. The violence of January 6, 2021 at the Capitol [the seat of both houses of Congress] was predicted too, although not so widely. For instance, writing in the centrist publication The American Interest, Stephen John Stedman and Thomas Westphal had warned in June 2020: “Even when evidence and consensus points to a clear loss at the polls, an incumbent may refuse to accept the verdict and urge followers to resist forcefully.” All of the forms of political violence they acknowledged as possible during or after the 2020 vote “result in broken lives and begin a cycle of violence that will be difficult to deescalate,” Stedman and Westphal had written in prognostic fashion. This time around, everyone – pundits, commentators, interested observers around the world, and above all, Americans themselves wait with bated breath about what will happen. The Economist insists the US will see power transferred, but the magazine also warns of danger. If Trump wins in November, Democrats could mount legal challenges. According to Zakaria that’s a normal post-election development, usually undertaken by both major parties after various state and federal contests. But it usually does not reach the scale of 2020s myriad claims by Trump supporters of outright fraud (Fareed’s Global Briefing, Sept. 13). Defeated Democrats could also follow Republicans’ January 2021 precedent and attempt to block certification of the presidential result. But Harris will likely  concede if she loses, the magazine conjectures. “If Ms. Harris wins,” The Economist writes, by contrast, “Mr Trump will not be so gracious. In that…scenario, the complexity of America’s voting system collides with the MAGA conspiracy machine…. “As a legal strategy this would probably fail again, as it did in 2020…. “Yet a new ‘stop the steal’ movement could fail legally while succeeding politically…. “In the last election a shocking number of House Republicans voted to reject the result. Since then the party has only become more beholden to Mr Trump…. “Members either sincerely believe the other side wins only when it steals elections, or go along with that idea in public…. “One possible consequence of this myth is political violence…. “The Capitol will be so well policed in January 2025 that there will be no repeat of the riots on January 6th. But local police, the Secret Service and the FBI will have to prepare for protesters descending on statehouses, and for the risk of assassination attempts against lawmakers.” A solid margin of victory for either candidate would probably minimize the risk. But, as The Economist notes, that’s not how this election is shaping is shaping up. Polls indicate a near-even race both in key swing states and nationally. Harassment and threats have taken their toll on election workers. At Foreign Policy in June, Bruce Hoffman and  Jacob Ware cited militant threats on both the right and left. At Axios this month, Zachary Basu, Erin Doherty, and Sophia Cai wrote that five factors are producing a ‘perfect storm of election chaos’ this year:
  • Trump’s wild claims about election integrity
  • A close race
  • Lawsuits already filed by the Republican National Committee
  • The violent recent history of 2021, and
  • A cesspool of disinformation.
Impact of Second Assassination Attempt American commentators are clear that the new apparent Trump assassination bid is another dark moment with unpredictable political consequences. CNN’s Stephen Collinson writes this is “the latest twist to a political season defying precedent and highlighting the nation’s deep polarization” (Sept. 16). Bangladesh After Sheikh Hasina: Dhaka Confronts Rohingya Challenge Muhammad Yunus, the head of Bangladesh’s interim government, has called for the expedited resettlement of Rohingya refugees to third countries. Bangladesh hosts nearly 1 million Rohingya today, many of whom fled military and ethnic violence in neighbouring Myanmar in 2017. Many reside in massive refugee camps in the city of Cox’s Bazar. Intensifying conflict in Myanmar has likely prompted Yunus’s urgency: Around 8,000 Rohingya refugees have crossed the border into Bangladesh in recent months (FP/Foreign Policy: South Asian Brief, Sept. 11). Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, notes that the Rohyingya issue is one of many daunting policy challenges for Yunus and the interim government, which is also grappling with restoring law and order following the forced resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last month, stabilizing a sputtering economy, and initiating large-scale institutional reforms. Kugelman is convinced that Bangladesh has a fighting chance at addressing the refugee crisis, in large part because of Yunus himself. Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist and microfinance pioneer, enjoys close ties with Western governments and the international donor community. His prominence and reputation overseas lend him the credibility to make effective pitches for increased humanitarian aid for Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh – the first and most immediate step needed to tackle the crisis. Sri Lanka Nears Critical Election Sri Lanka is gearing up for a presidential election on September 21. The Sri Lankan presidency is a powerful post, not a ceremonial one [like in Nepal]. Among the 38 candidates vying for the presidency, the race is essentially between three leaders: incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe , who is running independently; Sajith Premadasa, a former Wickremesinghe ally who formed his own party, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya; and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, from the National People’s Power, whose anti-corruption messages resonate with young Sri Lankans. Namal Rajapaksa of the Sri Lanka People’s Front and scion of the former ruling dynasty is also running. Bhavani Fonseka, a lawyer and senior researcher at the Centre for Policy Alternatives, a Colombo-based think tank, views the election as a critical moment for voters seeking a leader who can not only drive economic recovery but also address pressing issues of crime and corruption. Members of the country’s ethnic minority groups are particularly focused on finding a ‘political solution and reconciliation’, she said. Election Modality To win, a candidate must secure more than 50 % percent of the votes from around 17 million eligible voters in a country of 22 million. “It looks like it’s going to be a very tight race,” Bhavani Fonseka, the researcher said, highlighting the potential importance of “ second and third preferences” in Sri Lanka’s version of preferential voting in which electors rank candidates. These preferences are then counted alongside the primary votes to determine the eventual winner. Fonseka said this will make overall election turnout voter awareness of candidates, and the preferences of first-time voters crucial in determining the outcome. Prospects “The winner will be decided by the floating votes and how the elderly communities are going to cast their vote,” said Isun W. Siriwardhara, a senior researcher at the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies in Colombo. She told This Week in Asia the contest was primarily between Dissanayake and Premadasa and emphasized that, despite the youth-led mass protests of 2022, Sri Lanka’s ageing population – about 12.3 % percent of people were 60 or older in 2021 – still holds significant influence in determining the outcome (SCMP/ South China Morning Post, Sept. 13). Namal Rajapaksa has little chance of winning, according to Siriwardhana, who views his candidacy as a bid to gain “experience”. The 38-year-old is the eldest son of the popular wartime leader Mahinda Rajapaksa and the nephew of former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Public Mood Professor Ratnajeevan Hoole, a former member of the elections commission, pointed out that Dissanayake’s corruption-free reputation has contributed to his rapid rise, especially as Sri Lankans have expressed disallointment with the previous Rajapaksa regime and Wickremesinghe’s crackdown on protests in 2022. “Bringing out the army, bringing out water cannons, no one likes that, Hoole said. Gaps in Gender Parity This year’s election also lays bare glaring gaps in gender parity within Sri Lanka’s current political landscape. Despite a legacy of prominent women politicians – such as the late Sirimavo Bandaranaike, the world’s first female prime minister, and her daughter Chandrika, a former president – the latest presidential candidate list features no women. Siriwardhana argues that this absence reflects broader challenges within the Sri Lankan party system when it comes to nurturing women leaders [The situation is just as glaring in Nepal]. There exists a local government quota system designed to promote gender parity in politics, she noted, but such initiatives do not yet extend to the parliamentary/national level. “I think it’s a long-term fight,” Siriwardhana said (SCMP). India’s Modi Campaigns in Kashmir Assembly Elections Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi says “ terrorism is on its last legs” in Indian-administer Kashmir while campaigning in the disputed territory, a day after two soldiers were killed in a gunfight with suspected militants. Indian-administered Kashmir has seen an upsurge in fighting between rebels and security forces before the region’s first local assembly polls in a decade. Voting begins this week. This Himalayan region in India has been without an elected regional government since 2019 when Modi’s Hindu nationalist government at the centre cancelled the region’s semi-autonomy. “The changes in the region in the last decade are nothing short of a dream,” Modi told thousands of supporters effusively at a rally last Saturday in Doda, a town in the Hindu-majority southern area of Jammu (Al Jazeera, Sept. 14). “The stones that were picked up earlier to attack the police and the army are now being used to construct a new Jammu and Kashmir. This is a new era of progress. Terrorism is on its last leg here,” he said. Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) claim the government’s changes to the territory’s governance have brought a new era of peace and rapid economic growth. However, the implementation of those changes in 2019 was accompanied by mass arrests and a month’s-long internet and communications blackout to forestall protests. Many Kashmiris are resentful of the restrictions on civil liberties that followed, and the BJP is fielding candidates only for a minority of seats concentrated in Hindu-majority areas. Modi pledged at Saturday’s rally that his party would “build a secure and prosperous” Indian-administered Kashmir “that is free of terrorism and a haven for tourists”. But this year’s regional polls, which begin on Wednesday before results are announced next month, follow a spike in gunfights between security forces and militants in so-called “encounters”. In the past two years, more than 50 soldiers have been killed in clashes with rebels, mostly in the Jammu area. The Indian army said another two soldiers died last Friday during a firefight in the Kishtwar area as it paid tribute to the “supreme sacrifice of the brave hearts” in a post on the social media platform X. Muslim-majority Jammu & Kashmir [which originally included the vast area but sparsely populated region of Buddhist Ladakh, now  independently and centrally administered ] has been divided between arch-enemies India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947 and is claimed in full by both countries. [Part of the formerly semi-autonomous state is claimed by China – the Aksai Chin plateau – and part has been ceded by Pakistan to China] Rebels have fought Indian forces for decades, demanding independence [which would neither be realistic nor viable] or a merger with Pakistan [which begs the question of the status of Hindu Jammu and Buddhist Ladakh, or even Pakistan-administered Kashmir]. [Peace and tranquility in the region could perhaps be achieved by all parties abandoning maximalist claims and recognition of the status quo by India, Pakistan and China]. About 500,000 Indian soldiers are deployed in the region, battling a 35-rebellion that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and militants since 1989. India accuses Pakistan of backing the region’s rebels (including with training and supply of arms and ammunition) and cross-border attacks inside its territory, claims that Islamabad denies. The nuclear-armed neighbours have fought several armed conflicts for control of the region since 1947. [India also has an unresolved border conflict with China in Ladakh, and the east in Arunachal Pradesh]  The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com