Security factor in foreign relations
By Rabi Raj Thapa
In the latest political change, the Nobel laureate came to power and replaced the so-called dictator in our neighborhood Bangladesh. The question is whether he was assured and anticipated to fall upon him or was that just a windfall or an accident? Last month’s color revolution in Bangladesh was a great surprise and excitement to the world. It proved once more that even a five-time elected prime minister can fall from grace in no time and be forced to flee the country she ruled for 15 years when she dared to defy the demand and desire of a superpower and address the sentiments of her people timely and adequately.
In today’s world, revolution against the foreign occupier of colonial rulers has become obsolete. The political change in Bangladesh was not different from any color revolution of other countries in Asia, Africa and Europe. Politics and political life around the world have become bizarre and cruel around the globe. Ukraine and Palestinian Gaza are the two living examples today.
In Nepal, in particular, whenever a foreign secretary or minister pays a visit in Nepal, prominent political party leaders start queuing up to meet him or her. This second unspecified traditional belief in Nepal is that any new Nepali prime minister or the head of the state has to begin his or her first foreign visit from India! It sounds somehow awkward and absurd to think that way. But that holds some truth.
Recent news of new Nepali Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Dauba’s first visit to India and red-carpet hospitality has once more rocked Nepali politics. It has given new meaning and significance to the Oli-Deuba mid-night coalition government. It has also raised hope of a new dimension of a good relationship between Nepal and India.
However, there seems to be lacking something. Since the rise of China and India’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific Strategy, QUAD and AUKUS, the US and the West are more interested in the South Asian regional security strategy. Recently India has earned prominence and dominance due to its Global South strategy and BIMSTC. It is assumed that the fall of Sheikh Hasina's rule was due to regional security concerns of the U.S.
Indian and Nepali leaders neither take any border and security experts in their entourage nor hold bilateral talks on border security and cross-border issues and agendas seriously. For example, Nepal may have thought little about the effect of India’s policy strategic paradigm shift on Strategic Autonomy and deviation from its old traditional Non-Aligned policy and political philosophy of Panchasheel and its possible impact on Nepal’s foreign policy strategy.
Without timely and accurate appraising Nepal’s security policy strategy, how Nepal can protect, preserve; and maintain its strategic autonomy that is crucial for its survival as a sovereign independent nation in the world? Nepal’s reactive and rudderless foreign policy dwindling from West to South to North, back and forth is full of risk and vulnerability that is certain to lead Nepal into more political uncertainty, instability and chaos that Nepal will never be able to balance properly and adequately in the future to come. Therefore, Nepali political leaders must show maturity in their diplomatic dealings to win the trust and confidence of all their foreign counterparts as much as possible. Many past experiences have shown that Nepal cannot endure the wrath of strong nations for long when it creates suspicion and contradictions with any of our important, valuable and strong neighbor.
Leaving politics aside, climate change is a national, regional and global issue. The time has come to start thinking about non-political scientific and green revolutions too. In the year 2024, Nepal has lost many people and destroyed infrastructure by natural disasters than the war conflict. Nepal being a mountainous country can lead the world due to its unique geo-climatic, and geo-strategic value, can play a pivotal role as a pioneer in such an endeavor.
Let us think, therefore, for a different type of revolution to change than the color political revolution of any kind.
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