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By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel

A couple of days ago, a very close friend of mine tagged me on a Facebook post shared by a Nepali journalist in the eastern state of India “Prachanda’s political career is numbered”, he wrote.  No doubt, this was his personal perception and does not reflect the views of the Nepalese diasporas in the eastern state of India. But his comments are really worth discussing objectively here.

Born to Muktiram Dahal and Bhawani Dahal in 1954 in Kashki district in western Nepal, Pushpakamal Dahal “Prachanda” entered active politics in 1979 by joining CPN-M. He became a central member of the party in 1985 and was elected general secretary of CPN-M in 1990.

A key architect of a decade-long people’s war, Prachanda, has always remained a power centre ever since he joined the peaceful politics. He served as the first prime minister of federal democratic Nepal from 2008-2009. Almost a decade later, he became the prime minister for the second time and served as the prime minister from 2022-2024 for the third time.

During the first two decades of his leadership, Prachanda reigned supreme as he was the power centre. His party led a decade-long armed struggle killing over 17000 people. Despite substantial political and economic losses, his party was able to transform the nation from a semi-feudal with an exclusive political system into a more inclusive and secular system.

With the signing of the comprehensive peace accord in 2006 and the subsequent election to the constituent assembly, the foundation for the new Nepal was laid down. Prachanda was given the mandate to steer the nation endorsing his transition from rebel to ruler

Soon after becoming the Prime Minister, he unnecessarily poked his nose into Pashupatinath-related issues. Prachanda announced that his government would remove the Indian priests from the Pashupatinath temple and appoint a Nepali priest. While many hailed his decision to appoint a Nepali priest at Pashupatinath, it annoyed our immediate southern neighbor. A mass protest under the foreign instructions compelled Prachanda to make U-turn telling Indian priests to stay in the temple.

As if this was not enough, he made yet another blunder when he attempted to sack the then-army chief Rookmangud Katwal. His move was opposed by then President Ram Baran Yadav.  Many political pundits said that this was the beginning of the downfall of Prachanda’s political career forcing him to step down from the post on 4 May, 2009.

Fast forward, he became the Prime Minister for the second time in 2016 backed by the Nepali Congress, Madhesh-based parties and other fringe parties in parliament. However, after nine months, he resigns from his office leaving the leadership vacuum just two weeks before the second round of local elections. His exit from the government was expected under a power-sharing deal with the Nepali Congress Party.

Just before the 2017 general election, everyone was taken aback when two communists agreed to form an electoral alliance. Many viewed this as a calculative move of Prachanda whose political career was sinking and he needed Oli to save him from drowning. The move paid off. The two communists emerged victorious and both — Oli and Prachanda — agreed to lead the government on a rotational basis as per the gentlemen’s agreement. Surprisingly, Oli breached his commitment and chose to dissolve the parliament rather than handing over the leadership to Prachanda in 2020. After the Supreme Court stated that the move was unconstitutional, the parliament was reinstated. Two years later, Prachanda became prime minister for yet another time despite being relegated to a third party in the general election held in 2022.

Despite leading the country in and out of transformative political conflict and becoming key signatories of the constitution, Prachanda has always remained an insecure leader. He does not miss any opportunity to remind people of his revolutionary contribution. Perhaps this insecurity is the result of a lack of intellectual credentials like his fellow comrade Baburam Bhattarai who is known as the ideologue of Maoist conflict.

Over the past one and half decades, Prachanda has repeatedly annoyed our immediate southern neighbor. First, he upset New Delhi on the issue of Pashupatinath’s priest followed by opposing Indian interference in the process of constitution promulgation. It is an established fact that no Nepalese politicians have sustained their leadership without New Delhi’s blessing. Though Prachanda has realized that it is unwise to upset New Delhi, many believe that damage was already done and it is very unlikely that New Delhi is eager to foster its ties with Prachanda. With no support from New Delhi, Prachanda’s political career is at high risk.

His relationship with Baburam Bhattarai, who abandoned Maoism, is at its lowest point. Other senior leaders of the party are also not happy with him over his constantly changing position compromising the party ideology for his personal benefit. The Party insiders often say that Dahal is torn between his two selves: an insidious and crafty Prachanda who will go on the offensive to get what he wants and a gentle and pragmatic Pushpa Kamal who can placate opposing factions and win over media.

With the ousting last week, Prachanda now finds himself in a very treacherous position. He has lost all the strength to influence and shape the perception of the people. He now relies on other parties to become PM which is very unreliable as no one knows when his supporters withdrew their support forcing him to step down.

Gone are the days when people easily fall prey to the design of politicians. The people cannot be fooled by revolutionary talks and hollow agendas of politicians including Prachanda. With the changed political context, the people are now empowered with knowledge and critical thinking. How will Pranchanda re-convince the people asking them to give him yet another mandate?

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.