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By Our Reporter

After the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML, which have been forging alliance with the Maoist Centre turn by turn right from the 2017 general elections, forged alliance, people have started predicting the future of the Maoist Centre which emerged as the key political force immediately after the political movement of 2006. The Maoist Centre which emerged as the largest party in the first Constituent Assembly and led a coalition government has been continuously losing its popularity since then. The first party of 2008 elections became third in 2013 polls. Had the UML not forged alliance with the Maoist Centre in 2017 polls, it would have been a tiny party, but in the backing of UML, it won 53 seats in 2017.  In 2022, the party managed to win 32 seats only by forging electoral alliance with the NC. Had NC not forged alliance with the Maoist, the party could have won only less than half of 32 seats. Instead, NC could have won more seats because the party contested elections only in 90 of 165 constituencies under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

Even after forging alliance with NC, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal changed his Chitwan constituency and contested from Gorkha fearing defeat in Chitwan.

Except four Maoist leaders, all others won in the backing of NC. The party garnered only 11 per cent of the cast votes in 2022.

Now if the NC and UML gives continuity to the present alliance till 2084 and if they contest election without forging alliance with any party, the Maoist may win only 10 or less seats in total. In the city areas, the Maoist cannot win the election, while in the rural areas, NC and UML are stronger than the Maoist Centre. Therefore, it cannot win election both in rural and urban areas.

Many of the Maoist cadres of today can join the UML by 2084 polls. Moreover, the Maoist Centre could face split before 2084 polls. As such, the future of the Maoist Centre looks bleak for now.