• The Election Farce in Russia & the Future of “Putinism”
  • US Intelligence: Annual Threat Assessment
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla   Putin’s Elaborate Effort to Make His Leadership Look Legitimate Why does Putin bother holding elections? Russians had begun voting in a three-day election since last Friday that President Vladimir Putin was certain to win. Analysts are of the opinion that he’s using the 2024 poll to give the illusion that democracy exists in Russia. Critics have regularly said Russia is a dictatorship but nonetheless between March 15 and 17, the country held a presidential election (DW/Deutsche Welle: Sergey Satanovskiy, March 15). And the outcome was certain long before the polls opened: Vladimir Putin who has led the country for the past 25 years, would win a fifth term. That means he would remain in the Kremlin until at least 2030. If Putin, 71, completes his next six-year term, he’ll eclipse Josef Stalin’s 29 years to become Russia’s longest-serving leader in centuries. Czar Nicholas I held power for 30 years from 1825. The only clear opposition figure, liberal politician Boris Nadezhdin, had been barred from running by Russian courts, including the Supreme Court, on appeal. Other candidates include Nikolai Kharitonov, 75, who represents the Communist Party. The party’s candidate usually comes second to Putin – albeit a distant second. Kharitonov has criticized some of Putin’s domestic policies but supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.. Vladislav Davankov is also in the running. At 40, he’s one of the youngest candidates and has presented himself as more of a liberal when it comes to curbing of individual freedoms in Russia. According to the Reuters news agency, Kharitonov and Davankov might each receive between 4 % percent to 5 % percent of the total vote. Election demonstrates that Putin & the Russian majority ‘are united’ But although all Russian pundits – or Kremlinogists – have said Putin is definitely poised to win, the Russian presidential election does actually serve a purpose. Its actual objective is to address internal and external challenges faced by the Putin regime, said Kinstantin Kalachev, a political analyst and former Kremlin adviser. Inside the country, the election allows for the legitimation of the president’s power and demonstrates that the Russian people are united around their leader, he said. “And externally, it’s to show that Putin is implementing [foreign] policy based on people’s demands,” Kalachev told DW. “It demonstrates that the president and the Russian majority are united and dispels any illusions in the West [to the contrary]. In a country where everybody assumes the outcome is preordained, it can be difficult to persuade people to go out and vote. But as Meduza, an independent news website based in Latvia, wrote earlier this month, Russian authorities are taking measures to ensure that the presidential election looks as legitimate as possible. The goal is a voter turnout of 80 % percent. This is done, Meduza reported,” by mobilizing the electorate dependent on the government: public sector employees, employees of state corporations and large companies, loyal to the government, as well as their relatives and friends.” Members of Putin’s own party, United Russia, are encouraged to bring at least 10 people with them to the polling stations, the news outlet said, citing contacts close to the political party. Government and party officials can see exactly who turns out because of electronic voting or digital codes used to identify voters. In his state of the nation speech to Russia’s Federal Assembly in late February, Putin also offered ordinary Russians a number sweeteners before the elections, including a pledge to boost the economy. However, he also repeated his resolve to continue the self-styled special military operation in Ukraine. Russians did come out and protest Even though the only genuinely anti-Putin candidate, Nadezhdin, has been barred from participating, there were still some form of protest vote. There were multiple reported instances of arson and vandalism, including by elderly women, and in crucial cities like Moscow and St. Petersberg. There was also the ‘noon against Putin’ protest endorsed by Navalny shortly before his untimely death, i.e. encouraging folks to show their discontent by arriving at booths en masse at the same time (noon Sunday). That day, there were indeed long queues at noon, despite earlier attempts at confusion, distraction, and intimidation. Most Russian opposition forces have fled the country, but they have called upon their supporters to take action during the elections. The widow of recently deceased Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, had called on supporters to turn up at voting booths en masse at midday on Sunday, March 17 as a tribute to her late husband. “You can ruin the ballot, you can write ‘Navalny’ in big letters on it,” Yulia Navalnaya said in a recent YouTube video.” And even if you don’t see the point of voting at all, you can just come and stand at the polling station and then turn around and go home,” she suggested, adding people should vote for “anyone but Putin.” Having large crowds turn up to polling booths all at once won’t change the final result, but it could certainly disrupt the impression that Russians overwhelmingly support Putin, said Nikolay Petrov, a visiting fellow in the Eastern Europe research division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. That’s quite likely to irritate Putin, he added. “It’s a mistake to think that it’s easier for authoritarian regimes to have elections than for democracies,” Petrov said. “It’s very important for Putin to demonstrate to his political elite that he is supported by the vast majority of Russians. “That’s why the Kremlin wants to demonstrate very good results and also avoid any scandals.” (DW/Stanovskiy). Forever “Putinism” Few commentators around the world believe the just concluded Czar of self-inspired modern imperium. Putin’s re-coronation comes at a compelling time. Last spring, the shocking Wagner rebellion briefly exposed cracks in his grip on power. Were Putin to actually lose that grip, Russia expert Jade McGlynn noted to CNN Opinion at the time, Russia’s oligarchic elites would be the ones to decide what came next. “We know who the elites are. They’re not nice guys, and they’re going to want to defend their wealth and their interests” (Fareed Zakaria: Global Briefing, March 15). Now, leading opposition figure Alexei Navalny is dead, and Putin has used his war on Ukraine to launch a broad crackdown on dissidents at home. “The human rights organization OVD-Info says that 19,855 activists have been detained (in Russia) for protesting against the war,” Christian Caryl writes in the current issue of The New York Review of Books. “Thousands of others – including those members of Navalny’s team who were able to escape – now live in exile abroad.  .  .  . Navalny’s loss is a shattering blow to the dream of a free Russia. But those who continue to pursue that dream can take valuable lessons from his example.” Still, Putin appears to be legitimately popular in Russia. The independent Levada-Centyer, considered by many to be the only Russian polling outfit worth citing, recorded Putin’s approval rating at 86 % percent last month. At The New York Times, international correspondent Valerie ,"Hopkins cites “ a cognitive dissonance many Russians have adopted, celebrating the motherland and accepting the government’s triumphal narrative – even as Mr. Putin has become a pariah in much of the Western world, domestic prices rise and the Russian army suffers a staggering number of casualties in Ukraine.” In  a Foreign Affairs essay, Michael Kimmage and Maria Lipman ponder whether Putin’s style of rule will continue forever in Russia. “Any regime that promises to live forever cannot let itself be perceived as failing,” they write. “To endure, Putin’s regime must maintain the illusion not just of its inevitability, which it has already achieved, but also of its own immortality, which it cannot achieve. Visible cracks in the muth have the potential to undermine the myth itself. Putin’s presentation of himself as an omnipotent savior –the only one who can steer Russia’s destiny – thus presents a long-term risk for the regime.” World Affairs & Threat Assessment The 2024 annual threat assessment released by the US intelligence community (or IC) not only lays out how the US establishment perceives the world, but also portrays succinctly the current state of international affairs. It contains some pretty blunt assessments on the world. The Seven Bluntest Projections
  1. “The United States faces an increasingly fragile global order”
This is one of several sobering references to the state of the world, the West’s struggle to respond, and the space left for “rogue governments” to act as unscrupulous, untrustworthy and disruptive as they do. The report also captures the dilemma facing the U.S., whose responses are often seen by rivals “to contain or weaken them”. On other words: in an uncertain world, it’s a fine line between deterrence and destabilization (International Intrigue newsletter, March 13).
  1. “An ambitious but anxious China”
This is the neat description of a nation which the intelligence pundits say is “undercutting US influence” and “driving wedges between the US and its allies, in an effort to shape a world more favourable to China’s authoritarian system. Domestically, the assessment says China’s growth will “almost certainly” keep slowing due to its shrinking population and a collapse in sentiment. And externally, the report describes China’s efforts “to induce Taiwan to move toward unification” and “intimidate rival claimants” in the South China Sea.
  1. This deadlock…is increasingly shifting the momentum in Moscow’s favour”
Separate to Russia’s momentum – helped by uncertainty around future US support – the intelligence experts note that Russia has suffered its heaviest losses since World War II, with two results: --  first, it will take Moscow years to recover, making it “more reliant on nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities, in the meantime. -- And second, it means Putin “continues to face domestic challenges, including support from elites.” The report is thought-provoking that it also notes that China is supporting Russia just enough, but “without incurring risks’, i.e. Western sanctions. In return, the report notes China gets cheap gas and greater access to the resource-rich Arctic.
  1. “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device”
This determination, along with the finding that Iranian leaders didn’t “orchestrate” or get a heads-up before the Hamas attack against Israel, lowers the report’s heat a little. However, the document does highlight Iran’s role in pushing more regional attacks by its proxies; says Iran has put itself in a “better position” to produce nukes if it so choses; and Iran “seeks to target former and current U.S. officials” as retaliation for the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 in Baghdad.
  1. “Pyongyang’s cyber forces have matyred and are fully capable”
In addition to reiterating Kim Jong Un’s zero-interest in negotiating away his nuclear-programme – which he sees as a “guarantor of regime security and national pride” – the report highlights his penchant for “cryptocurrency heists” to raise cash. It is also a reminder that sanctions can produce some unintended results!
  1. “Netanyahu’s viability as leader...may be in jeopardy”
The assessment notes Israel “remains focused on destroying Hamas” though the Gazan population “broadly supports” the group, which will mount “lingering armed resistance…for years to come”. Thus, the report in addition to questioning the US ally’s political future, also effectively questions his strategy. This in indeed significant coming from a US threat assessment.
  1. The risks to U.S. national security interests are increasing as the physical effects of climate and environmental change intersect with geopolitical tension”
This isn’t a new conclusion and it is indeed a world-wide phenomenon – impacting all countries and all the people. Other Takeaways:
  • The report also says 74 governments have bought commercial spyware – often to spy on dissidents.
  • “Many Coastal West African governments are facing potential coups”, in part because competition between world powers will presumably limit any international condemnation.
  • The assessment flags the potential for more India-China, India-Pakistan, and Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts ahead.
  • In addition, the report highlights the risk of further internal turmoil in the Balkans, Sudan, Ethiopia, The Sahel zone, Haiti, and Venezuela.
The Greatest Threat: The United States Itself! None other than Richard Haass, a leading US public intellectual, a foreign policy luminary and the president-emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, has pertinently pointed out that the report was written by the intelligence community, which means it is not allowed to survey or access anything domestic. Thus it leaves out what might be the greatest threat to U.S. national security: the United States itself! More specifically, it is the US domestic political polarization that has made it difficult, and all too often impossible, for the U.S. to meet those aforementioned international threats (Richard Haass: Home & Away, March 15). Haass writes that the most glaring current example is the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ refusal to provide additional military support for Ukraine. “The United States is pulling the rug out from under Ukraine. And it is doing so for domestic political reasons, not for serious, much less sound, reasons of foreign policy.” Haass argues that defeating Russian aggression, degrading its military so it cannot launch another war in Europe, and helping Ukraine defend its sovereign territory should be something that has broad support across party lines. The fact that it does not is a true scandal. The China Connection Haass also points out that U.S. support over the past few years has made war with China over Taiwan less, not more, likely, as it demonstrated to Chinese leaders the West’s willingness to back its friends and allies, the reach of economic sanctions, and the risk that China would be taking if it were to call on its untested military to conduct a highly complex operation to seize Taiwan. Abandoning Ukraine would teach China and Taiwan the lesson that the West cannot be trusted for the long haul and consequently increase the odds that, one way or another, Taiwan would come under China’s sway. And if Russia defeats Ukraine, it would be a terrible day for Taiwan and further destabilize the Taiwan Strait. The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.