+Nepali Politics  +Germany’s Role in World Affairs  +Ukraine Peace? By Shashi P.B.B. Malla   Nepali Politics after Elections The current ruling alliance is short of a working majority, but is determined to take the reins of power by hook or by crook. After all, without power at the centre, there can be no bhagbanda – the division of the spoils. The “Gang of Five” increased by one other party to the “Gang of Six” to reach a majority, must after all be recompensed for their toils and the enormous election expenses. With the results at hand, they can argue that the Nepali people have given them a mandate to rule again with impunity – democracy has triumphed! Unfortunately, the Nepali electorate has sent a mixed message. On the one hand, the role of the two major parties – the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML – was again established. On the other, the demand for change was definitely apparent with the rise of smaller parties and independents. The major question is whether these smaller and new parties and independents will join the political establishment or agitate for change from the outside. Another burning question is who will be the prime minister? Sher Bahadur or Prachanda would both be terrible choices – but the choice is out of the   hands of ordinary folk. The country needs firm and competent leadership – whether PM or ministers. The country has to get rid of its image as a pseudo electoral democracy or worse still as a kleptocracy. The ministers must be up to the job. As an example, we cannot have the minister for the environment officially attending the COP 27 conference at Sham el-Sheik, but actually enjoying the sights of Cairo! Join the Nepal government and see the world! Germany’s Foreign Policy In a major, wide-ranging and succinct essay in Foreign Affairs (Jan.-Feb. 2023), the German chancellor (prime minister) Olaf Scholz laid out the basic tenets of his Global Zeitenwende (the epochal tectonic shift in international relations). Chancellor Scholz postulates that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has ended an historical era and ushered in a new one. New powers in international relations have emerged or reemerged – including an economically strong and politically assertive China [the reemergence of the Middle Kingdom, no less]. In this new multipolar world, different Countries, systems and models of government are competing for power and influence. Germany Redefines its Foreign Policy In the first instance, Germany’s new coalition government (composed of Social Democrats, Greens and Liberal Democrats) is putting a new spin on Germany’s foreign policy. It is a new beginning at how Germans look at themselves and the world. It is indeed a change to a new epoch, a new era – only encompassed by the German “Zeitenwende”. Germany has arrived in age, so to speak. As the largest country (population-wise) and the biggest economy in the European Union (EU), it will no longer play second fiddle and will adopt a robust leadership role. This does not mean that it will assume the role of ‘first among equals’. Rather recognizing the eminent role of France and its former leaders and its unenviable position as the only nuclear power in the EU, Germany strives to establish a Franco-German entente. As Scholz writes, Germany will do everything to defend and foster an international order based on the principles of the UN Charter: “Its democracy, security, and prosperity depend on binding power to common rules.” Germany: Fully Integrated in Europe At the same time Germany is fully anchored in the European system – enmeshed in the myriad economic, political, social and security networks. Scholz strives for Germany to becoming the guarantor of European security that its allies fervently expect, and a bridge-builder within the EU. Germany: Champion of Multilateralism Scholz also advocates multilateral solutions to global problems. He sees this as the only way for Germany to successfully navigate the geopolitical rifts of the new era. Thus, the Zeitenwende goes beyond the current war in Ukraine and beyond the issue of European security. Scholz is acutely aware that Germany’s recent history gives it a special responsibility to confront the malignant forces of fascism, authoritarianism, and imperialism. Germany’s experience of being split in half   [like Korea still today] during the ideological and geopolitical confrontation immediately after the Second World War, gives it an exceptional appreciation of the risks of a New Cold War. The Empire Strikes Back After Russia attacked Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, a revisionist Russia slammed the doors of diplomacy fully shut. Then the second aggression against Ukraine in February 2022 ushered in a fundamentally new reality: imperialism had returned to Europe with a bang. Putin shattered the European and international peace architecture that had taken decades to build after the implosion of the Soviet Union. Above all, Putin defied even the most basic principles of international law as enshrined in the UN Charter: the renunciation of the use of force as a means of national policy and the pledge to respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of all countries. Acting as a neo-imperial power, “Russia now seeks to redraw borders by force and to divide the world, once again, into blocs and spheres of influence.” By redefining its national security policy, Germany is determined to counter Russia’s revanchist imperialism. No Peace on Putin’s Terms The small state of Estonia has come out emphatically against peace at any price, and especially on the terms set out by Vladimir Putin. Estonia (capital: Tallin) is a very small country in the north of Europe, bounded on the north by the Gulf of Finland, on the east by Russia, on the south by Latvia, and on the west by the Baltic Sea. Ms. Kaja Kallas, the very resolute prime minister, set out her country’s stance in the Ukraine conflict in a powerful essay in Foreign Affairs (Dec. 8). Ms. Kallas made a very strong case for why Russia must definitely be pushed out of Ukraine completely. Taken in context, Russia’s war of aggression has never been solely about Ukraine. It is also about the international rules-based order and the security architecture of Europe. Now in the tenth month, Russia has rained terrible horrors on Ukraine thought to have belonged to past history. The Estonian prime minister describes the ‘art’ of Russian warfare: “Russia is waging a genocidal war in Ukraine, shocking the world with the magnitude of its war crimes. It is targeting civilians, destroying civilian infrastructure, and using mass killings, torture, and rape as weapons of war”. Putin’s main purpose is to wipe Ukraine off the map – if not now, then later. With its false claim of “de-nazification” , it is actually inciting its troops to commit genocide. Russia’s War Strategy Ms. Kallas points to two weapons in Russia’s Ukraine/European strategy: pain and fear. First, the Kremlin aims to inflict pain on Europe by withholding energy. Second, it stokes fear of a nuclear war, which would have devastating effects, not only in Ukraine, but by the fallout also in parts of Europe [as also in Russia!]. Pain is not a problem for Europe, claims Kallas. It can definitely endure, and even prosper. With regard to fear, she refers to US President Franklin D. Roosevelt who famously said: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” in the midst of the Great Depression. Bowing down to Putin’s nuclear blackmail even once, would be tantamount to opening the doors to a much more dangerous world. A Premature Peace Kallas also rejects the notion of peace negotiations at the current stage of the war. This is because unless and until Russia abandons its goal of conquering new territory in Ukraine, it is absolutely futile starting negotiations and a lasting peace is an illusion. The lessons of history are surely that appeasement only strengthens and encourages aggressors and that aggressors can only be stopped by force: “The only path to peace is to push Russia out of Ukraine.” Thus, the disgraceful Munich settlement (1938) effected the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia and gave Nazi Germany virtual command of Eastern Europe. Great Britain’s appeasement of dictatorial Adolf Hitler symbolized the sacrifice of principle – the sovereign independence of a small state for expedience – placating Der Fuehrer and buying time. Placating Putin at this juncture would be signaling weakness and cowardice. Instead, the West should pursue a policy of uncompromising firmness – like Ukraine is doing. Russia’s “Liberation” Policy Russia has cloaked its hostile external actions with claims of “liberating” people. But the fact is that these people without exception have not in any way requested liberation! In this connection, the Kremlin proudly reminds the world of the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Nazi Germany. However, it remains silent on the indisputable fact that the Soviet Union, together with its then-ally Hitler Germany colluded in the start of World War II. Russia’s Imperialist Ideology Although the Soviet Union eventually collapsed, its imperialist ideology did not. The Soviet Union had subjugated the whole of Central Asia and most of Eastern Europe. For this reason, US President Ronald Reagan referred to the Soviet Union as an “evil empire”. Russia which succeeded the Soviet Union as a permanent member of the UN Security Council continued its imperialistic policies unhindered and unchallenged. It used force for its own interests in Georgia, Moldova, Syria and Ukraine when it was duty-bound to undertake resolute action “with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression” (Chapter VII/UN Charter). However, there is a real Western culpability also for not taking timely action [or any action at all] in the face of Putin’s depredations. The more reason to remain resolute this time around. Estonia & Russia: A Troubled Relationship Estonia shares a border and a long troubled history with Russia. As a small country, it has realized that in order to survive, it doesn’t have the luxury of making mistakes, forget major ones. For Estonia the primary need to halt Russian aggression in Ukraine is an existential matter. After WW II, “Estonians lost everything to Soviet terror: we lost our territory, our freedom, and a fifth of our population. We were forgotten and abandoned behind the Iron Curtain for half a century” (Kaja Kallas). From this experience, Estonians learnt first, that you need to fight for your freedom, whatever the odds, because not fighting brought about the worst-case scenario. [This is also Ukraine’s experience in real time] Second, Estonians realized, ‘if you want peace, you must prepare for war’. It has, therefore been spending robustly in its national defence. Third, Estonia concluded that it is extremely perilous to be without friends and allies – especially for a small country. It, therefore, joined the European Union (EU) and NATO, as did many central and east European countries. This eastern expansion was not “escalation” or “provocation” vis-à-vis Russia, but for the countries’ own legitimate national security. Estonia Supports Ukraine Wholeheartedly Estonia may be a very small country, but because of its experience with Russia and the Soviet Union, it is at the forefront in supporting Ukraine militarily, economically, and politically. The United States is, without doubt, Ukraine’s largest supporter in total dollar terms, but Estonia is its largest supporter in per capita terms! It has also sought to increase the cost of aggression by isolating Russia and by leading the call for accountability – for insistence at the International Criminal Court. Even before the start of the war, Estonia had sent arms that played a key role in the crucial battle of Kyiv a few months later. Later, heavier arms if supplied, would have saved many lives. Realizing this grave mistake, Estonia and other European countries have sought to make amends. Peace: Not at Any Cost! Kallas, therefore, pleads for stepping up military support for Ukraine – even with heavy weapons and in the deep of winter. The Free and Western world must not seek to freeze the conflict in order to pursue so-called ‘peace talks’. Any pause in the fighting now would only serve Russia’s military interests. It would allow Russian military forces to rest and regroup and then continue their aggression with renewed energy later in the spring of 2023. The Path Ahead Such a course of action would mean, to paraphrase Winston Churchill both dishonor and war. Ukraine has amply demonstrated that it is capable of winning the war. To again quote Churchill: give them the tools and they will finish the job. Europe must strive to achieve freedom from dependence on Russia which means freedom from Russian blackmail. Which is now within grasp. Ukraine’s struggle for freedom has ramifications for the wider world: “What is at stake in Ukraine is not just Ukraine’s existence but Europe’s security architecture, with its core principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and prohibition of the use of force.” The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com