By Our Reporter
The second elections to the House of Representatives and Provincial Assemblies after the promulgation of the constitution in 2015 are being held across the country in a single phase on Sunday.
The Election Commission has said that it has completed all preparations for the elections.
Approximately 250,000 employees and 302, 700 security personnel including 115,000 temporary police have been mobilised across the country to hold the polls. The EC has designated 22,227 polling centres in all 165 constituencies of 77 districts to hold the elections. According to EC, the eligible voters for the November 20 polls are 17,988,570
Earlier, the first elections held in 2017 were swept by the left alliance of the CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre, which were unified later in 2018 creating the Nepal Communist Party, which split into three—CPN (UML), Maoist Centre and the CPN (Unified Socialist)-- in 2021, and two of them have forged alliance with the Nepali Congress and are contesting the elections with the UML.
Obviously, when the third largest party forges alliance with the first or the second largest party, the alliance benefits. It was evident from the 2017 polls as well. Thus, the NC as well as the Maoist Centre are likely to benefit from the alliance this time. However, unlike in 2017, a new party -- Rastriya Swatantra Party led by journalist Rabi Lamichhane -- is posing a challenge to the traditional parties, especially in the urban areas while the Rastraiya Prajatantra Party that failed to get recognition of a national party in 2017 has strengthened its presence across the country under its new chairman Rajendra Lingden, making it more difficult to make any prediction on election results. A clear picture will be seen only on 22 November when the results of many constituencies will be out.
However, the results will not be as expected by the big parties. The UML has claimed to win 100 of the 165 seats under the first-past-the-post category and 50 under the Proportional Representation category, which looks next to impossible because of the split in the party. Even when the party was unified, it had won only 120 seats with 41 under the PR category. Altogether 275 members—165 under the FPTP category and 110 under PR -- will be elected in the House of Representatives.
The NC which had fielded only 91 candidates in all 165 constituencies to be elected under the FPTP category has argued to win 77 seats, which is also impossible. The Maoist Centre has argued to win 30 seats and the CPN (Unified Socialist) 13. However, the ruling coalition can garner a simple majority as it has five parties in total. Rastriya Janamorcha and Loktantrik Samajwadi Party led by Mahantha Thakur will also win a few seats on behalf of the ruling alliance.
As the parties have not fared well over the decades, there is frustration among youth and they are backing Rastriya Swatantra Party which could impact the results in Kathmandu, Chitwan and Jhapa districts.
Again, the ruling alliance as well as the alliance led by UML have several rebel candidates to alter the poll results.
Now that the silent period is beginning from Thursday midnight, the big parties could influence the voters by distributing money and goods and applying other measures to bring the results in their favour. Moreover, when the local administration works in favour of the ruling and big parties, such manipulation becomes widespread reversing the situation in many constituencies.
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