By Nirmal P. Acharya
At present, China's Tibet is experiencing a severe COVID-19 outbreak and the outbreak has also spread to Sichuan, Qinghai and other provinces.
Despite China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy, strict border control and border crossings, some believe that the recent outbreak in Tibet might have been imported from Nepal, forcing the Chinese government to enforce a strict lockdown and completely shut down its borders closed for the past few weeks. Nepal and China share a long border of more than 1,300 kilometres, including nine trading routes and of these, only Rasuwagadhi and Tatopani were the most crucial allowing only a few containers to cross for the last two years.
Sharing a border of 1,300 plus kilometers means that Nepal and China are destined to be interdependent on mountains and rivers and naturally a community with a shared future. Interestingly, India is also naturally part of this community by destiny.
In the near future, the world's largest and second-largest economies are likely to be China and India (currently second and fifth respectively). Between the future first and second economies, the existence of Nepal is a stroke of God. China and India, two of the most promising countries in the world, exist and continue to exist because of Nepal.
For instance, let us stand in front of a giant map of the world and imagine what the scenario would be if Nepal was not positioned in between the two countries. The two giants, each with a population of nearly 1.5 billion would face off nearby. Physical contact, friction and scuffles seem inevitable, and both sides could even reach for the nuclear button provided things got heated.
The "Thucydides trap" that the US and China now face can be overcome and resolved because there is the Pacific Ocean between the two countries. In the future, China and India will also approach the "Thucydides trap", which can still be crossed and defused, because there is Nepal in-between the two giants.
Therefore, China and India should protect Nepal's existence as if their own, and safeguard Nepal's sovereignty and independence as pure in their own eyes. Without Nepal, it will be hard for China and India to avoid hand-to-hand confrontation.
Thereupon, both China and India should stand up against the MCC landing in Nepal. Since the MCC has stripped Nepal of some of its sovereignty, this might put Nepal on a slide towards disintegration, leading to a catastrophic breakdown and consequently putting China and India in a real "Thucydides trap".
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