• Nepal
  • Sri Lanka
  • U.K.
  • Japan
  • G-20
  • Russia in Ukraine
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla Nepal: Chinese Interference in Domestic Affairs? An 8-member Chinese delegation led by the new head of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Liu Jianchao arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday for a 3-day official visit. The nature of the delegation and the timing of the visit has raised speculations (TKP/The Kathmandu Post, July 9 & 11). The government newspaper, The Rising Nepal has even designated Liu Jianchao as “Minister” (July 11). It must be emphasized that, in fact, it is a delegation of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and not a government deputation. Thus, according to strict rules of protocol, there was no need for Liu to meet the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister or the Foreign Minister. However, considering the close relations subsisting between Nepal and China since ancient times, the rules could have been bent a bit, and Deuba could have received him as president of the Nepali Congress – but not at Baluwatar, but at NC headquarters. There was no need for the Protocol Division of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) to become active and make a hash of the whole affair. The visit was at the level of political parties and it should have been the respective ‘international departments’ of the CPN-UML, CPN-MC, and possibly NC to make the necessary arrangements and not state institutions. The fact is that Liu and his delegation are in Kathmandu for a specific purpose – to arrange a reunion of the main Communist parties by hook or by crook – and counter the NC, the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and other democratic and patriotic forces in a grand design. This will culminate just before or just after the parliamentary and provincial elections on November 18. This could very well be a repetition of the events before and after the last elections. Deuba and his close advisers must be very wary of the machinations of his close and dear comrades and allies and also his frenemy Oily. It is not the business of the resident Chinese ambassador or a visiting party dignitary to meddle in the internal affairs of another sovereign country. This is very much like the ‘micromanagement’ of Nepali politics by the Indian establishment! If Deuba perceives that the Communists of all possible hues are up to their old, nasty tricks, he does have an ace up his sleeve. To counter domestic Communist threats and external Chinese interference, he can dissolve parliament, assemble a caretaker government of mostly technocrats and fight the elections alone or in alliance with democratic forces and independents. This will not only be the coup de grace but he will also have the last laugh! Japan: Assassination of a Great Patriot and Statesman For once, PM Sher Bahadur Deuba acted promptly by sending a strong message of condolence on the senseless killing of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to the Prime Minister of Japan Fumio Kishida. Deuba’s cabinet also upped the ante by declaring that Nepal would observe last Saturday as a national day of mourning. This was a fitting tribute to the longest-serving leader of modern Japan and former President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It also highlighted Japan’s enduring partnership in Nepal’s ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development. Shinzo Abe was groomed to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi. Abe became Japan’s youngest prime minister in 2006, at age 52, but his nationalistic first stint abruptly ended a year later because of health issues. He strove to make a clean break with the past and his political with a stronger military and bigger role in international affairs (AP/Associated Press, July 8). Then followed six years of annual leadership change, remembered as an era of “revolving door politics” that lacked stability and long-term policies. His return to office in 2012 also ushered in a period of regeneration. He revitalized the nation and got its economy out of its deflationary doldrums with his “Abenomics” formula, which combined fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. He won six national elections and built a rock-solid grip on power, bolstering Japan’s defence role and capability and its security alliance with the U.S. He also stepped up patriotic education at schools and raised Japan’s international profile. Abe could have been proud of his work to strengthen Japan’s security alliance with the US and shepherding the first visit by a serving US president, Barack Obama to the atom-bombed city of Hiroshima [it was during WW II that US President Harry S. Truman authorized the use of the atom bomb against Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 to end the war against Japan]. He also helped Tokyo gain the right to host the 2020 Olympics by pledging that a disaster at the Fukushima nuclear plant would be under control. Even out of office, Abe was still highly influential in the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).  Sri Lanka’s Economic and Political Crisis Sri Lanka’s embattled Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has told political party leaders he would resign when all parties agreed on forming a new government. The president was due to resign on Wednesday. Last Saturday tens of thousands of people broke through barricades and entered President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s official residence and nearby office to vent their fury against a leader they hold responsible for the nation’s worst economic crisis. The new prime minister, Wickremesinghe, had taken over in May to help steer the country out of the crisis. However, the enormity of the problem was too much for him. He was also suspect of being in cahoots with the ruling dynasty of the Rajapaksas. Leaders of political parties in Parliament met after the storming of the president’s residence and decided to request both President Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe to resign. A consensus was reached that the parliament speaker should take over as interim president and work to form an interim government. Protesters and religious leaders called on Rajapaksa to step down, saying he had lost the people’s mandate. Many protesters chanted: “Gota go home”. Gotabaya’s “claim that he was voted in by Sinhala Buddhists is not valid now,” said Omalpe Sobitha, a Buddhist leader. Economic Woes Last month, Wickremesinghe said the country’s economy had collapsed. He said the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had been complex because Sri Lanka was now a bankrupt state. Sri Lanka’s economy is in a state of collapse, muddling through with aid from India and other countries as its leaders negotiate a bailout with the IMF. The economic meltdown has led to severe shortages of essential items, leaving people struggling to buy food, fuel and other necessities. The turmoil has led to months of protests, which have nearly dismantled the Rajapaksa political dynasty. Global Britain Presses On Where does the U.K. go on from here, after the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson? Aside from the scramble among Conservative MPs for the top job. The Economist of London suggests that the “wave of populism” Johnson has embodied may recede among the Tories [Conservatives]. Meanwhile, the UK faces inflation, strained public services, and lingering Brexit questions over its border with Ireland [an EU member], as it moves ahead. Johnson’s Image Was that of the UK ‘Both during Johnson’s rather quixotic tenure as UK foreign secretary as well as his prime time in 10 Downing Street, so much of the UK’s image in the world has been wrapped up in the personality of this one man’ (Chatham House, July 7, 2022). Johnson’s personality trait was clearly delusional [as was that of Donald J. Trump]. He convinced himself that he had received a huge personal mandate at the December 2019 election. This was constitutionally false, as in a parliamentary system as the UK, the electorate votes for individual MPs, not the party leader. He also firmly believed that the Conservative Party and the country itself would collapse as soon as he had gone; in the mode of French King Louis XV: ‘Apres moi, le deluge’. Johnson Quits the Stage, but his Foreign Policy Plays On Johnson’s strong military and political support for Ukraine – seen as courageous and sensible, and domestically popular will continue. The hard line on China and the so-called ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’ will be seen as longer-term strategies. Trade deals will continue to be pursued, doggedly and at a frustratingly slow pace. Johnson’s government was thanked by the Swedes and Finns for giving security guarantees ahead of their NATO membership bid and was seen as courageous by Poland, the Baltic states and others. G-20 Foreign Minister’s Meeting in Bali Foreign Ministers from G-20 nations gathered last week on the Indonesian island of Bali for a two-day meeting amid tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine (DW/Deutsche Welle, June 8). The meeting was another chance for the world’s largest economies to take stock of the economic impacts of the war, and includes many major countries who have decided to stay neutral in the conflict, like India, Brazil, and host Indonesia. It was also a chance for the host nation to showcase its diplomatic prowess ahead of a potentially fraught leaders’ meeting in October this year. As things now stand, Indonesia has routinely invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend, despite pressure from Western nations to keep him away. As one of the many non-aligned nations caught between the West and Russia over the war in Ukraine, Indonesia has been walking a diplomatic tightrope. It has a stake in both camps: As a customer for Russian military equipment and as an importer of Ukrainian wheat (Foreign Policy: Morning Brief, July 7). In June, President Joko Widodo visited both Kyiv and Moscow in a bid to free up food and fertilizer supplies frozen by the war. Earlier at the G-7 summit in Bavaria, Widodo [as a special invitee] pressed the group to limit the impact of sanctions on global food supplies. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in attendance despite objections from Western states. Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi urged for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a direct appeal for Russia to unblock Ukraine’s grain exports. He also said there had been widespread calls at the meeting urging Russia to end its war in Ukraine. Lavrov was not present as Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba [on special invitation by Indonesia] addressed the foreign ministers. Western ministers, including German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Blinken avoided meeting the Kremlin’s top diplomat. They also boycotted a dinner due to Lavrov’s presence.    The West Risks Failure in Ukraine The Washington Post’s (WaPo) and CNN’s Fareed Zakaria writes in his latest WaPo column that the West’s strategy in Ukraine “is in danger of failing,” and calls for urgency and adjustments. “Western leaders should recognize that economic sanctions [on Russia] simply will not work in a time frame that makes any sense,” Zakaria writes. “They should increase as much of the supply of energy worldwide as they can but also dial back those sanctions that clearly are causing more pain to the West than Russia.” “Meanwhile, they should amp up military support to Ukraine, erring on the side of taking more risks. Freeing up the blockade around [the Black Sea port] Odessa would be a huge economic win for Ukraine, and a shattering symbolic defeat for Russia. Winter is coming. Homes in Europe might not have enough heat. Troops in Ukraine will find it harder to dislodge Russians once the snow blankets the land. Time is not on our side.” Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory However, Barry R. Posen, Professor of Political Science at MIT has thrown cold water on various theories that postulate an Ukrainian victory/Russian defeat (Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2022). Prof. Posen underlines the weak basis for various possibilities:
  • Ukraine must continue fighting on to victory and restore the pre-war status quo ante;
  • Russia would relinquish the territorial gains it made since February 24;
  • Ukraine would not recognize the annexation of Crimea nor the secessionist stateless of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas;
  • It would continue down the path towards membership of the European Union (EU) and NATO.
For Russia such an outcome [according to Prof. Posen] would represent clear and complete defeat, and therefore, without qualification unacceptable. From its own perspective:
  • It has already borne vast costs for its “special military operation” [probably never imagined or intended];
  • The likelihood that Western economic sanctions would not be lifted any time soon;
  • Moscow would have gained nothing at all from the war;
  • Indeed, it would lead to permanent weakness [what the U.S. was now intending].
The point is that realistically, even with Western help, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield. In fact, it is still strong enough to defend most of its gains. Nor can the West convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war, or even persuade/induce/win over someone in his inner circle to forcibly replace him. All indicators and developments point to the most likely outcome of the West’s/Ukraine’s strategy – not a Ukrainian triumph, but a terrible stalemate – a long, bloody and ultimately indecisive war. There is a further dimension at play. In the West, meanwhile, populations inconvenienced by the collateral damage of sanctions [and the influx of refugees] are slowly but certainly losing patience with the war which has gone on for far too long. Prof. Posen posits that Russia and Ukraine have now reached a point where both cannot achieve more than what they have already accomplished:
  • Limited and pyrrhic territorial gains for Russia;
  • A strong, independent and sovereign government with control over most of its pre-war territory for Ukraine.
The costs of the war have already been immense and will grow exponentially if the war continues. It could escalate to include even more destructive attacks by either side. Russian and NATO units operate in proximity at sea and the air, and accidents are possible. Other states, such as Belarus [allied with Russia] and Moldova [now officially a EU member-candidate], could get drawn into the war, with neighbouring NATO countries unintentionally getting involved. The time is ripe and it is expedient for the two countries to negotiate. It is not only in their own interests, but that of the wider world. The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com