View from America

By M.R. Josse GAITHERSBURG, MD: Though there are myriad indications suggesting that President Joe Biden is doing fairly well nine months plus into his administration, there are, contrariwise, numerous clues indicating that his ship of state is very much in choppy foreign/security policy seas. To begin with, in the bellwether race for governor of Virginia, the newly released Washington Post-Schar School Poll shows that the contest is a dead heat as it heads towards its conclusion, Tuesday, 2 November 2021. Overall, the poll shows Democrat Terry McAuliffe at 49 percent among likely voters and Republican Glen Youngkin at 48 percent. While most polls have drawn a similar picture, a Fox News poll released last week gave Youngkin a lead of eight points. SECOND FOREIGN TOUR While the result of that key contest will be known soon enough, Biden, on the eve of his second foreign tour managed to secure support for his pared down, $ 1.7 trillion package to overhaul the country’s health-care, education, climate and tax laws. However, the long-awaited proposal did not go far enough to advance his broader agenda, including a second, separate $ 1.2 trillion package to improve the country’s roads, bridges, pipes, ports and Internet connections. What the future holds on that score remains to be seen. According to a new NBC poll, as reported by the Washington Post, just 42 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing, while a close political ally (McAuliffe) is struggling in what was expected to be an easy victory in the gubernatorial race in Virginia. “As the American president sought to showcase his leadership on the global stage, the president’s standing at home has grown more precarious with Trump sending increasing stronger signals that he will seek the White House again.”

Glimpses of the G-20 Summit held in Rome. Photo: Internet

As reported by Washington Post, in Rome the American president opened new fronts in global engagement, 30 October, “endorsing international accords on taxation and vaccinations, while joining key European allies to ramp up pressure on Iran to revive the 2015 deal to curb its nuclear program.” “Taken together, the moves marked fresh efforts to turn away from (former president) Trump’s policies that included withdrawal from key international accords, a snub of the Iran nuclear deal and a range of protectionist trade measures.”  Incidentally, on the first full day of the G-20 summit in Rome, Biden met with leaders of the E3 countries – France, Germany and Britain – in an attempt to coordinate with Russia and China, the other parties of the original Iran nuclear agreement. A subsequent Post report from Rome had it that Biden “sought to reverse key policies and approaches of former president Donald Trump…and attempted to ensure those reversals would stay in place even if there is a change in American leadership.” Thus far, he has been unable to pass his full legislative agenda, though he hopes that it will happen after his return from his most recent foreign foray. Meanwhile, it will be heartening to Biden, among others, that there are now signs the Covid-19 pandemic may be winding down in America. Indeed, as Joel Achenbach and Yasmeen Abutaleb of the Post report, new cases have dropped below 75,000 a day, less than half the number in August. The United States will soon reopen land borders to vaccinated visitors and lift several travel restrictions. As this is being drafted the COP26 – or the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland – has opened with some 120 political leaders in attendance, but with the Russian and Chinese presidents being conspicuous by their physical absence. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned, “either we stop it (global warming), or its stops us”, while urging to “choose ambition, choose solidarity, choose to safeguard our future and save humanity”. While a ‘now or never’ mood seems indeed to have permeated the global climate conference judging by the statements of speakers,  it remains to be seen how all the speechifying and doomsday warnings will actually translate into meaningful policies on the ground. The goal, as is known, is to keep warming limited to 1.5C, or at the worst 2C, but we are on track for 2.7C which the U.N. says would result in ‘climate catastrophe’. STRATEGY OF DENIAL Though the international eye, so to speak, has largely been centred on Rome and Glasgow this week, several other key geopolitical priorities/threats have attracted attention, too, including the by now familiar one concerning a potential clash between the United States and China over Taiwan. In that context, a thoughtful book review in the Washington Post by Clyde Prestowitz, author, ‘The World Turned Upside Down: America, China and the Struggle for Global Leadership’, is noteworthy. The reviewed opus is Elbridge A. Colby’s ‘The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict’ which, as with the reviewer’s own book and that of Rush Doshi’s ‘The Long Game’, have “argued that - contrary to the assumptions and practices of most U.S. and the free world China policy for the past 40 years - communist China is pursuing a long-term strategy to displace, if not replace, the U.S.-led global democratic order.” Colby is a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense. Prestowitz informs that “those of us who hold this view foresee increasingly open competition and conflict, potentially including nuclear war, between Communist China and the free world.” He discloses that others, “such as former U.S. Army colonel Andrew Bacevich, chief interpreter for President Richard Nixon, former U.S. Ambassador Chas Freeman, and Australian scholar Hugh White note that in recent Pentagon war games focused on Taiwan, the U.S. team consistently lost to the Chinese team.” “Since such an event would have the potential to expand into a major U.S.-China nuclear exchange, these voices have called for the United States to simply declare that it will not defend Taiwan from an invasion from Beijing. They argue that since Washington long ago agreed that ‘there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of it,’ any mainland invasion would simply be a civil war in which American has no right to intervene. “Because of this, they say, a Beijing occupation of Taiwan would have no broader impact on the U.S. ties with treaty allies including Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand and would in no way weaken their security.” Because of space constraints I will confine myself to just one more excerpt from Prestowitz’s engrossing review. “Because of China’s relative military superiority in the region, Colby thinks Beijing’s strategy will likely be to attempt a large invasion of the island but without striking others in the region whom it won’t want to antagonize. To counter this, Washington must obtain the assistance of its formal treaty allies Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia. But even they, together with U.S. forces, would be insufficient. In addition, India, which has been fighting its own battles with China, must also play a role. That still is not enough. Further support from some among the likes of Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand will be necessary. This support does not have to come in the form of direct military involvement. It could consist, for example, of opening airfields and harbors to the U.S.-led coalition while denying the same to China. That combination of power, says Colby, would be greater and reach farther than China’s.” I would at this point suggest that the Foreign Ministry, the China Study Centre and interested think-tanks, among others, obtain the three tomes just referenced for serious perusal and contemplation. Regarding our politicos, I seriously doubt that they would have the bandwidth to truly appreciate them! CHINA ON THE MIND The extent to which China continues to play on the official American mind is borne out in umpteen other ways as well. For instance, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called China’s recent test of a hypersonic weapons system “very concerning” – and “very close” to a “Sputnik moment,” in a recent television interview. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby added: “There is a suite of issues with respect to China…that deeply concern us…They are informing the budget. They’re informing the programs and priorities of the department, they are going to inform in many ways our training and exercise regimen.” The Washington Post reported that some experts fear the prospect of entering a new arms race with Beijing, citing the dangers of a contest between two nuclear powers. “President Biden is said to be weighing adopting a “no first-use” nuclear posture, as a means of reducing tension…The administration has yet to announce a specific policy regarding its approach towards an increasingly militarized China.” Post Columnist, Fareed Zakaria, dissed comments about a “Sputnik moment” for America vis-à-vis China, arguing in a recent column that power politics is only one of the great forces that motivate states in the international system. “But there are others, such as economic interdependence. The world today – including China – is thoroughly enmeshed in a complex global economic system in which war would hurt the aggressor almost as much as the victim. “There have been almost no land grabs since 1945 (the most notable exception being Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014). This amounts to an almost unprecedented declaration of respect for borders. In addition, nuclear deterrence has raised the stakes making countries much more cautious about launching great power war.” The Beijing factor in U.S. policy formulation has been strikingly underlined in a Post story detailing differences between senior Biden administration officials on China. In a major front-page story earlier this week, the Post informed: “In early summer, with less than five months to go before a critical United Nations climate conference in Scotland, John F. Kerry told President Biden that he wouldn’t achieve his goal of tackling climate change, unless U.S.-China relations improved…Now, with less than a week before leaders of nearly 200 countries arrive in Glasgow for the U.N. summit…expectations of a major breakthrough are dim: Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend in person, and Washington and Beijing face domestic political constraints on their international climate ambitions. “The desire to make progress on climate change has led to tension among Biden’s top aides over how to manage Washington’s competing priorities with Beijing.” The Post also revealed that U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan has ruled out accommodating China to make gains on climate. It quoted Sullivan at a security conference in spring, saying: “We are not in the business of trading cooperation with China on climate change as a favor that Beijing is doing for the United States.” Incidentally, last week the Post had a story headlined: U.S. has few options if China were to seize islands administered by Taiwan. It also recalled U.S. defense secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent remarks: “As we have done over multiple administrations, we’ll continue to help Taiwan with the sorts of capabilities that it needs to defend itself, and we will stay focused on that.” NATO, EUROPEAN ALLIES Adding to Biden’s foreign/security policy woes are reports of renewed buildup of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border, and tough rhetoric from Russian authorities, including from President Vladimir Putin. Also to be noted is Russia’s suspension of its mission to NATO in Brussels, after the alliance expelled eight members of the Russian mission on accusations of espionage. Then, there has been a splurge of reports that European allies are still not sure that ‘America is back’, as a Post story last week sought to project. It quoted, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister who served as NATO secretary-general, saying: “After four years with Trump, the world is very, very curious whether this is a lasting new direction of American politics or we could risk a return to Trumpism in 2024.” The Biden ship is verily sailing through turbulent foreign/security policy seas!