By Our Reporter
All is not well with Nepal’s economy now. It is an alarming situation with growing negative macroeconomic indicators.
The current account, balance of payments and foreign currency reserve have been affected as the flow of remittance has shrunk significantly and import of luxurious items has increased.
Economists said that the declining flow of remittances will adversely affect the country's remittance-based economy.
They argue that remittance has become a pillar of the economy, supporting the national economy to import goods, reduce poverty and manage liquidity in the banking sector. They have suggested that the government should focus on making remittance flow sustainable until and unless the country's economy becomes stronger on its own.
Economist Dr. Chandra Mani Adhikari, as reported by The Rising Nepal, has said that multiple effects could be seen in the country's economy following the declining growth rate of remittances.
The negative impact on reference economic indicators -- the current account, the balance of payment, and foreign currency reserve -- has also been seen with the reduction in the flow of remittances. Even liquidity problem has, of late, been seen in the banking sector.
“There is a challenge in the economy, but there is no need to panic. The government and the concerned authorities, especially Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB), should adopt effective measures in time to overcome the challenges seen in the national economy,” Adhikari was quoted.
The latest macroeconomic report of NRB showed that the remittance inflows had dived by 18.1 per cent to Rs.75.96 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year in contrast to an increase of 23 per cent in the same period the previous year.
In the US dollar terms, remittance inflows decreased by 17.5 percent to 638.2 million dollars in the review period against a growth of 14.5 percent in the same period of the previous year.
Similarly, the current account remained at a deficit of Rs. 47.90 billion in the review period.
The Balance of Payments (BOP) registered a deficit of Rs.38.75 billion in the review period against a surplus of Rs.51.46 billion in the same period a year ago.
Gross foreign exchange reserve has also decreased by 3.2 per cent to Rs. 1353.82 billion in mid-August 2021 from Rs.1399.03 billion in mid-July 2020.
However, the NRB said that the foreign exchange reserve of the banking sector was sufficient to cover the prospective merchandise imports for 9.3 months, and merchandise and services imports for 8.3 months.
The economists have urged the NRB to control the import of luxurious and non-essential commodities to maintain foreign currency reserves.
Obviously, foreign currency reserve and balance of payment will be affected badly if the flow of remittance shrank further.
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