Review of World Politics (RWP)

  By Shashi P.B.B. Malla “Inclusive” Government for Afghanistan Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of the Taliban’s political office, has told Al Jazeera the group is in the process of forming an “inclusive” government following its lightning takeover of the country last month (September 4). Last Friday, sources within the Taliban told Reuters news agency Baradar would lead the new government in Afghanistan, with Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob – the son of the Taliban founder Mullah Omar – and Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai taking senior roles. Baradar served as deputy defence minister when the Taliban last ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. Following the fall of the Taliban government, Baradar served as a senior military commander responsible for attacks on coalition forces, according to a UN sanctions notice. He was arrested and imprisoned in Pakistan in 2010. After his release in 2018, he headed the Taliban’s political office in Doha, becoming one of the most prominent figures in the group’s talks with the United States and the signing of their agreement in the Qatari capital last year. Last Wednesday, Stanikzai told the BBC that women would be able to continue working, but “may not have a place” in the future government or other high-ranking positions. Taliban [main] spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Italian newspaper La Republica that women would be able to work as nurses, in the police or as assistants in ministries, but ruled out that there would be female ministers. Resistance to Taliban Continues The head of the National Resistance Front, Ahmad Massoud has said his fighters will not give up the battle for the holdout valley of Panjshir, north of Kabul (DW, September 4). Massoud is the son of Ahmad Shah Masoud, a major opposition figure against the Taliban’s previous regime and leader of the Northern Alliance. He was assassinated by Al Qaeda in a suicide bombing just two days before the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Massoud the son was trained at the UK’s Royal Military Academy in Sandhurst and honed his theoretical knowledge of war and peace at King’s College, London. Panjshir is the last Afghan province holding out against the Taliban armed group that swept to power last month. Both sides claimed to have the upper hand but neither could produce conclusive evidence to prove it (Al Jazeera, September 5). The Taliban was unable to control the valley when it ruled Afghanistan in a draconian fashion from 1996 to 2001. However, this time around, both domestic factors and the regional situation are in their favour. According to the BBC’s legendary correspondent Lyse Doucet, it is possible that in the battle of opposing narratives, the Taliban control the Panjshir’s principal public arteries and areas, and a landscape known intimately only by its own inhabitants may now be sheltering the most defiant of resistance fighters. In Germany only Three-Party Coalition Government Possible after General Elections The latest opinion polls indicate that no single party or a combination of two parties would manage to secure a majority to form the government following the general elections on September 26 this year (DW/Deutsche Welle, September 3). According to last week’s national opinion polls, the political parties’ positions are as follows [values in parentheses are percentage point changes from August]:                                     SPD 25 % percent [ + 7 ]                                                                            CDU/CSU 20 [ -7 ]                                                                            Greens 16 [ -3 ]                                       FDP 13 [ + 1 ]                                                                             AfD 12 [ + 2 ]                                                                           The Left 6 [ +/- 0 ]                                                                              Others 8 [+/- 0 ] (DW/September 4) Deciphering the Colour Code The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) are symbolized by the colour black. The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is red, as is the socialist Left Party. The pro-free market Free Democratic Party (FDP) or Liberal Party is designated by the colour yellow. And the Green Party is self-explanatory. The German media refer to the three-way colour combinations (since a two-party coalition is currently ruled out in the polls) and the national flags of other countries and use them as shorthand for political combinations of the various political parties. The “Germany” Coalition – Black, Red, Yellow (Gold) – the Colours of the German National Flag This three-party coalition would consist on the centre-right CDU/CSU [black], the centre-left SPD [red] and the liberal FDP [yellow]. However, if the SPD remains ahead of the Conservatives on election day, the colour order would be slightly changed, putting the SPD in the lead with red-black-yellow – a very different game altogether! The “Kenya” Coalition – Black, Red Green – the Colours of the Kenyan National Flag The combination of the centre-right CDU/CSU and centre-left Social Democrats – what has been termed the “Grand Coalition” -- a coalition of the two big tent parties that has been in power for the last eight years, but will probably no longer have a majority in the Bundestag [the lower house of parliament]. Taking in the Greens – currently polling in third place -- as a third limb would secure a comfortable majority. However, with the CDU/CSU and SPD running neck-and-neck, it’s not clear which will emerge the strongest and name the presumptive chancellor [prime minister]. In addition, the Conservatives may not be willing to play the second fiddle. The “Jamaica” Coalition – Black, Yellow & Green (the colours of the Jamaican national flag) The centre-right CDU/CSU have often teamed up with the much smaller Liberals (FDP) at the state and national level over the years. Including the Greens to form a three-way coalition would be an attractive option to many in the CDU/CSU. Moreover, a similar attempt failed after the last general elections in 2017. The “Traffic Light” Coalition – Red, Yellow, Green The free-market-oriented liberal FDP has in the past generally ruled out federal coalitions sandwiched between the Social Democrats and the Green Party. But this year the FDP is not ruling out any options. Germany’s traditional “kingmaker” party is above all very keen to return to power– no matter in which colour combination. The so-called Ultra Progressive Alliance – Red, Red & Green The SPD joining the Greens and the Left Party is a specter the conservatives like to raise whenever they perform badly in the polls. Such a combination might just about clinch 50 % percent in the Bundestag. But the SPD and the Left Party [which originally broke away from the mother party, SPD] have a difficult history. Moreover, the Left’s extreme foreign policy positions [like scrapping NATO] would hinder negotiations to start with. It would also damage the SPD’s image of pushing towards the centre. Such a coalition would only have an outside chance. German Elections: Embattled CDU/CSU Chancellor-Candidate Presents Policy Team With just under three weeks to the general elections, the CDU/CSU’s candidate to replace long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel has presented his brand-new policy team in a last-ditch effort to help him turn around an alarming drop in voter support (DW/ September 3). The decline has been blamed largely on Armin Laschet, the top candidate slated to succeed Angela Merkel, who is standing down after four continuous terms in office. The CDU’s chairman and governor of the most populous state of North-Rhine - Westphalia, Laschet has come across as vague and indecisive, with a lack-lustre campaign marred by slip-ups – including laughing at a joke during a somber moment in summer in a flood-ravaged western part of the country while the federal president was delivering a speech. This so-called “policy team” consists mostly of unknowns from the province and has derisively been labelled the “Zukunftsteam” [future team]. It is probably too little, too late in the now “hot phase” of the election campaign, even though Merkel herself has warmly endorsed her fellow conservative Laschet. Moreover, postal voting has already started. With an expected 50 % percent of voters expected to opt for mail-in voting, it’s wide open if Laschet will be able to move the needle. Anton Hofreiter, leader of the Green Party parliamentary group, like others, was not impressed with the lineup, speaking of “helpless actionism”. He also said that Friedrich Merz, one of the members [a former Merkel adversary and Laschet’s rival for the CDU chairmanship in January] just “stands for regression and an economic policy of the past century.” Biden’s Lousy Week According to CNN’s Chris Cillizza, last week was truly awful for U.S. President Joe Biden (“The Point”/September 3). Biden is doing his best to forget it all and get on with the job, but the despicable and hypocritical Republicans – both inside and outside of Congress –are using every trick in the trade of ‘dirty politics’ – to not let that happen anytime soon. The main body blows Biden took last week: First, the U.S. ended its military presence in Afghanistan on Tuesday – ignominiously. While Biden spoke several times to the nation in an attempt to smooth people’s ruffled feathers, the Islamic State- Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) suicide bomber who took 13 American military lives and those of at least 170 others, coupled with the overall chaos of the pullout, reflected very badly on him and his administration. Second, the economy, plagued by the Covid-19 Delta variant – remained sluggish last month. Optimistic economists had expected that in August more than 700,000 new jobs would be added to the workforce, but actually, only 235,000 were created. Third, Biden’s ambitious stimulus package stalled. Senator Joe Manchin, a critical moderate Democrat from West Virginia, said Thursday that his party needed to take a “strategic pause” in its efforts to pass the US Dollar $ 3.5 trillion stimulus package that Biden has described as necessary to overcome the economic meltdown caused by the pandemic. Without Manchin on board, the Democrats in the Senate lack the 50 votes they need to pass the stimulus bill. The Republic cans, as usual, are thinking only of their own party and careers and not of the nation, and will not help out. Fourth, a new national poll from NPR/PBS/Marist showed Biden’s overall job approval dropping to just 43 % percent, with 51 % percent disapproving. Even more worrisome for Biden was that the percentage of people “strongly” disapproving of how he was performing as chief executive and commander-in-chief [41 % percent] was more than double the number [19 % percent] “strongly” approving of his job performance. However, much water will flow in the Potomac until the midterm elections in autumn 2022, when Biden will have time to rebound and the Democrats to hold their narrow majorities in the House and the Senate. In the meantime, as CNN’s star commentator and Princeton professor Julian Zelizer wrote, Biden has to follow the trajectory of building political coalitions that can allow him to move forward (September 4). The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com