Regional/International

By N.P. Upadhyaya  Kathmandu: As the date of the US forces leaving Afghanistan is nearing, the international powers have begun making “substantial efforts” as much as they could to bring the warring factions in Afghanistan to arrive at a “negotiated settlement” so that the region takes a sigh of relief. Sincere efforts are in progress. If peace prevails in Afghanistan, then it would not only be South Asia to benefit but will have a profound impact on the expanded and the extended territories in and around Afghanistan, the Gulf and the neighbouring Central Asian States. Observers say that peace in Afghanistan will for the sure benefit even countries like China and far-flung Russia. Talking to the New York Times Daily in June, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had said that “Pakistan had used the maximum leverage it could on the Taliban”. PM Khan maintains that the day US President Joe Biden announced that his forces will leave Afghanistan for good this August end, the Taliban concluded that they have won the game without fighting the US and the NATO forces. “The Talibs bagged a victory without facing difficulties”, so believe the international observers who have been closely watching the war in Afghanistan that has unfolded in the recent weeks and months. The observers instead maintain that the US should have worked first on “peace negotiations” between the Afghanistan government led by President Ashraf Ghani and the Afghan-Taliban(s). The Afghan-Talibs now have the upper hand, claim international relations expert and so believes PM Khan. Khan even wrote an article in the Washington Post suggesting to the US that a hasty withdrawal of the US forces would neither be in the interest of the US nor of the region which includes Pakistan. And it is this supposed upper hand that has emboldened the Talibs in the recent days and weeks to capture Afghanistan. The Talibs again control Afghanistan. The speed with which the Talibs were advancing towards Kabul, the seat of the Ghani led Afghan government, what the International observers and media predicted that Kabul could fall within three months or even less. Even if the Talibs continue to advance towards Kabul, concurrently the insurgents have been attending the Troika Plus meet and other similar international “peace” initiatives in Doha, the Qatari capital in a position of “strength” and have begun pressing the international mediators to “unseat President Ghani” first to continue the talks. While the Talibs were demanding the “resignation of President Ghani”, then similar voices had begun emanating from Afghanistan’s domestic power corridors which implies that Afghanistan will have peace only when sitting President Ghani resigned. Ghani was adamant simply because he was being supposedly supported by the US and India. While the Talibs were mounting pressure on Ghani to vacate the Presidency then he was less interested in quitting from the chair, approached India for express help to challenge the Talibs. In what is being taken as an unprecedented move, the Ghani government had sought “robust air support” from India as the fight between the Afghan government forces and the Talibs insurgents grew more intense in the last couple of days, writes Nayanima Basu for The Print, August 10. The Afghani establishment wanted the Indian Air Force (IAF) to come into the country and support the Afghan Air Force. The talks for the assistance of the Indian Air Force appears to have first cropped during a recent phone call between Afghani Foreign Minister Haneef Atmar and his Indian counterpart S. Jaishankar. However, even if the Afghani request was positively responded to by New Delhi, the question was how the Indian Air Force would enter the Afghani territory? Would Pakistan allow the Indian Air Force to fly over its sky? Perhaps not. And China will definitely not. Troika Plus in Doha: South Asian media sources opine that the four diplomatic veterans from Russia, China, the US and Pakistan led the Troika Plus talks in Doha for hours and happily the four envoys were unanimous that reduction in violence by Taliban is a must for lasting peace in Afghanistan. Representing the extended Troika Plus in Doha, Qatar was Zamir Kabulov from Russian Federation, Zalmay Khalilzad from the US, Yue Xiaoyong from China and Mohammad Sadiq Khan. The Troika Plus meeting took into account the latest security situation across Afghanistan and agreed to extend all possible support to the Kabul administration in the prevailing situation, reports the Nation newspaper. The Troika Plus meet in Doha, Qatar, August 11, has also called for an “accelerated peace process for Afghanistan” as a “matter of great urgency” and for an immediate halt to attacks on provincial capitals and cities in Afghanistan, reports Reuters from Dubai. To a query of the reporters, one of the prominent members of the Troika Plus from China, Yue Xiaoyong said that it was just the beginning of the talks and both sides have agreed that there can only be a political solution to the ongoing war. The Pakistan envoy Mohammad Sadiq Khan during the Troika Plus meet in Doha reportedly shared Pakistan’s structured policy and stance on the latest situation in Afghanistan and reiterated that the formation of a broad-based interim government in Kabul through negotiations is the only option to contain the deteriorating Afghani situation. As the Talibs were advancing and claiming several towns and territories across Afghanistan, Emily Schmall wrote for the New York Times, August 13, pressure is mounting on neighbouring Pakistan from the US which wants Islamabad to “do more”. The US and other international powers believe that Pakistan yet has considerable political leverage on the advancing Talibs. The US is pressing Pakistan to press the Talibs to bring in for a “negotiated settlement”. Pakistan says it has now limited clout. On a tougher note Schmall writes that while Pakistan is voicing support for a peaceful solution globally, however, the government of Imran Khan has been quieter at home. “It has not spoken out against pro-Taliban rallies within Pakistan. It also hasn’t condemned reported Taliban atrocities as the group marches toward Kabul”, adds Emily. Emily adds, from America’s perspective, the main ask is for Pakistan to exercise its leverage in pushing the Taliban to reduce violence and toward an intra-Afghan peace deal”. Pakistan says repeatedly that “peace in Afghanistan” is a must for peace and stability not only in Pakistan but also to the entire South Asian region so it will do all it can to establish peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan being the next-door neighbour, a disturbed Afghanistan is not in the interest of Pakistani stability and tranquility. The US and the Afghani leadership possess a different views. Some international relations experts opine that a politically disturbed Afghanistan upon the US withdrawal this August bodes equally ill for the neighbouring Central Asian nations along with Pakistan. China too can’t escape the impact of an unstable Afghanistan. Experts say that both Russia and China are likely to feel the heat that may emanate from Afghanistan’s northern border. In the wake of the likelihood of the attack from the Afghani side, the Russians, Tajiks, and the Uzbeks’ military forces reportedly have had a preemptory drill to check any attack from the Afghani side to the Central Asian states. The Russians and the Chinese too have been engaged through Troika Plus in bringing the Talibs and the Afghani government to the table to have a “negotiated settlement”. On a different level, both Russia and China have their spoken and at times unspoken ties with the Taliban insurgents. And at a very very official level, China in the recent past hosted the meet of a considerable size of a high-level Talibani delegation in the city of Tianjin wherein the Chinese State Counselor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met the delegation. Media reports said that a red carpet was rolled out in China in honour of the high-ranking Taliban delegates which was led by none less than the co-founder and deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. This explains that the Chinese authorities have already inched closer to the Talibs and vice versa. This is smart diplomacy indeed. Sources say that China has a military base on the Tajik side of the Afghan-Tajik border. Remarkably, Central Asian states are believed to be highly under Russian influence. India too has some exclusive ties with some Central Asian states. If it is so then the Russians, Chinese and the Indians may collide with each other time permitting. The chances remain. High placed sources confirm that the Afghan-Taliban(s) too have intimate ties with the Russians. As of Pakistan, it has had some leverage on the Talibs and thus pushed them to attend the talks in Doha with the US authorities. Pakistan’s official stance is that it would prefer a peaceful outcome in Afghanistan, some sort of a power-sharing arrangement reached after an intra-Afghan peace deal, writes Madiha Afzal for the Brookings, August 6. And this stance more or less was disseminated by Mohammad Sadiq Khan, the official in Doha. Clarifying his stance, Pakistani PM Imran Khan recently had stated that Pakistan doesn’t speak for the Taliban, nor is it responsible for it. Pakistan argues that a “rushed” U.S. withdrawal before peace talks has set the stage for the current situation. Yet, the US would want Pakistan to do more. While the US demands more from Pakistan to bring peace in Afghanistan then Pakistan too demands its ties with the US be not limited to the prevalence of peace in Afghanistan. “It expects the ties to be based on “geo-economics” that takes care of trade, investment and connectivity”, say official government sources in Islamabad. Very freshly PM Khan has said that the US just wants to use the country to clear the mess in Afghanistan. Khan says straight that the US prefers India over Pakistan. Notably, not only the Troika Plus had a meet in Doha, side by side, Doha also hosted a meeting of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours. Others who participated were Russia, the United Nations and the US. The aims and the objectives of the discussions that were held in Doha were “to seek a possible common ground” between the two Afghan adversaries “at a time when (the Taliban) have started occupying provincial capitals,” various media agencies have reported. The US is advised to encourage the Troika Plus to intensify its efforts for a “negotiated settlement” in Afghanistan. Fresh reports claim: “President Ashraf Ghani has left Afghanistan for Tajikistan as Taliban inters into Kabul. According to the country’s top peace negotiator Abdullah Abdullah. “The former Afghan president has left the nation,” Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, said in a video on his Facebook page”. The US is sending additional troops to Afghanistan to evacuate its citizens and diplomatic staff. That’s all.