Political Commentary

  By P.R. Pradhan The political ups and downs seen in the Karnali Province later followed by in the Lumbini Province reflect the intention of the Madhav Nepal faction in the UML. This faction, in Karnali, against the party whip, had crossed the floor from which the Maoist Center led government in Karnali was saved, whereas, the chief minister of the Lumbini Province faced a challenge from his own party UML. Province chief minister Shankar Pokhrel had resigned from the post to escape the no-confidence motion on 2 May. The same day, the province chief had assigned Pokhrel as the chief minister on the basis of a majority of the UML in the provincial assembly. UML had 41 seats in the provincial assembly, which is enough to form the government, however, Bimala Oli had challenged Pokhrel saying that she had quit the party and joined the Maoist Center, which had created trouble for Pokhrel information of the government. Nevertheless, on the basis of Oli’s presence and signature in the parliamentarian party meeting minute the same day province chief Dharmanath Yadav appointed Pokhrel as the chief minister. Yadav’s act for assigning Pokhrel has been questioned.  With the threat of floor cross, chief minister Pokhreel had escaped the no-confidence motion on 2 May.  The latest development in the Lumbini Province indicates that both the Oli and Madhav Nepal factions are committed to finish each other.  After analyzing the present intention of the Nepal faction, Prime Minister Oli decided to face a no-confidence motion earlier to the presentation of the government policy and programme and the budget for the new fiscal year.  By the third week of May, Oli has to present the government policy and programme and by end of May, Oli should present the budget for the next fiscal year. To avoid the uncertainty for rectification of the government’s two important agendas, Oli has decided to face the House on 10 May. The House is called for 10 May seeking a vote of confidence by PM KP Sharma Oli the same day. Oli has analysed that it is difficult for rectifying the government policy and programme and the budget given the scenario of betrayal from his own party.  Around 10 MPs in the Nepal faction may cross the floor, whereas, JSP with 32 MPs’ strength is also divided into two factions. UML holds 120 MPs but some of them may cross the floor. JSP is divided and each faction may have around 17 MPs. The vote needed to save the government is 137. But if some MPs in UML will cross the floor, the government cannot be saved. The total strength of the House of Representatives is 275 seats. Therefore, to secure majority, Oli needs 137 votes.  Presently, UML holds 120 seats, NC 60 seats, Maoist Center 49 seats, Janata Samajbadi Party 32 seats, Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party 1 seat, Janamorcha Nepal 1 seat, Rastriya Prajatantra Party 1 seat and independent 1 seat.  When uncertainty was surface in securing a majority, Oli has decided to face the House earlier to the presentation of the government programme and budget. In case if the government programme is failed, Oli will have to tender resignation. Therefore, Oli wanted to seek a vote of confidence earlier.  If Oli will be able to manage 137 votes on 10 May voting in the Parliament, he will be allowed to run the government for the remaining two years. In case, if the government falls into the minority, on that case, Oli has to tender resignation with the offer of formation of an alternative government. Oli however will continue in the government as a caretaker until the formation of a new government.  Given the dispute in JSP, the formation of an alternative government seems impossible.  If UML MPs will cross the floor while Oli seeking a vote of confidence, they will be suspended from the party. It means, they will lose the MP’s post.  Therefore, Oli has decided to go for a vote of confidence even at the time, technically, the Maoist Center has not withdrawn its support to the government. If all options for the formation of an alternative government will be failed, Oli will get the chance for dissolving the parliament and go for a fresh election by October or November (within six months). Also, Oli will get the opportunity to conduct the election under his command. He will continue in the government until the formation of a new government by the new House. Oli has thus taken the present strategy.