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News Analysis

By P.R. Pradhan

Of late, the two supreme leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Prime Minister and party chairman KP Sharma Oli and co-chairman Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda are preparing for a final battle. The Secretariat meeting of the party is scheduled for 28 November, however, there is a high chance of postponement of the meeting considering the visit of Chinese Defence Minister and State Councilor Wei Fenghe, wgo is arriving Kathmandu on 29 November. Even if the NCP secretariat meeting will take place on 28 November, the former battle will not be announced on that day to give a positive message to Beijing.

Nevertheless, immediately after the visit of the Chinese Minister, Oli is going to present counter political document replying all the allegations put forward by co-chairman Prachanda. In the previous Secretariat meeting, Prachanda had presented a political document which was full of allegations against Oli.

The present scenario is that if Oli becomes unable to influence one Secretariat member out of the nine members, he will fall into minority not only in the party Secretariat but also in the party Standing Committee and also in the Central Committee. But if Oli will be able to bring one member from the opposition alliance to his camp, the present dispute in the party will be over until the upcoming national convention of the party scheduled for April.

Currently, Oli holds the strength of four Secretariat members, whereas, there are five members in the Prachanda camp. Out of four members also, at the final battle, Home Minister Rambahadur Thapa, who is in Oli’s camp, may take Prachanda’s side. Therefore, for his rescue from the present crisis, Oli is compelled to develop an alliance either with Madhav Nepal or with Bamdev Gautam. Otherwise, Prachanda will dominate the Secretariat. The other option left for Oli is to convince Prachanda to take back the document presented by him in the previous party Secretariat meeting. On this case, Oli will also cancel his plan to present another document alleging Prachanda. If Oli will present his document in the party, that will be an announcement for the final battle.

Prachanda’s plan:

Prachanda and Madhav Nepal have planned to exhibit majority in three organs – Secretariat, Standing Committee and Central Committee and demand resignation of Oli from party chairmanship and PM.

After ousting of Oli, Madhav Nepal plans to become the next PM and Prachanda will remain as the executive chairman of the party until the unification national convention.

This group plans to oust Oli at any cost and in the second phase, ousting Bidya Devi Bhandari through an impeachment from the post of the President by permanently destroying the Oli camp in the party.

Oli’s strategies:

Oli has mobilized his confidants to convince the leaders in the Prachanda camp for finalizing all the issues from the national convention by keeping pending all the disputed issues for the time being.

Party general secretary and Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel has floated the idea of dissolving the Secretariat body, which has become the battle venue.

As per the unification agreement, it is clearly stated that the two chairmen will lead the party. It defines that the role of the Secretariat is meaningless.

Also, Poudel has suggested to dissolve all three party structures and constitute a national convention organizing committee and focus on an early national convention of the party.

Some youth leaders are floating the idea of taking retirement by those leaders who have already got the opportunity to become the PM and that party commander and allow the next generation leaders to lead the party.

The above-mentioned agendas represent Oli’s inner wish as he is in a mood for not repeating on any of the posts – party chair and PM. However, Prachanda, Nepal and Gautam should be ready to take retirement.

Nevertheless, as the next generation leaders have become active to convince both the leaders, the present dispute can be postponed until the national convention.

Oli still believes that he holds the majority in the NCP’s parliamentarian party. Even if he falls in minority in the three party organs, he can say that he is not going to quit the posts as he is an elected PM.

In the meantime, Oli has held talks with a group of NC leaders led by NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba on 22 November.

During the meeting, Oli had requested to develop an alliance between NCP and NC and vote for him in the parliamentary election securing a majority for Oli. Oli had also suggested to Deuba that the alliance would help to endorse the controversial Millennium Challenge Corporation proposal, an American grant project.

Finally, if Oli sees no option left for him, he may bring an ordinance and split the party.

The Prachanda camp has felt that if Oli attempts to split the party, no senior leaders and other party workers will go with Oli. Oli will be alone at that time. Therefore, the Prachanda camp is not worried from a split of the party, however, they want to blame Oli for the split.

The other option left for Oli is to dissolve the parliament, on which, debates are on that the PM, following the present constitution, cannot dissolve the parliament.

Oli is consulting with legal experts to activate the option for dissolving the parliament.

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