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View from America

By M.R. Josse

GAITHERSBURG, MD: The clear if none-too-wide victory of the Democratic Party of Joe Biden over the Republican Party of incumbent president Donald Trump – called by major news networks on Saturday four days after Election Day, 3 November – has renewed hope in the continued robustness of democracy in America.

It has, simultaneously, offered a fresh and timely promise of a calmer, more orderly and predictable world buffeted for the four chaotic years of the Trump presidency’s incubus of turmoil, unpredictability, misinformation and division.

AMERICA PASSES TEST

Though Trump still stubbornly refuses to concede victory to his rival and instead continues to press ahead with lawsuits contesting some results – in the absence of any concrete evidence of substantive or widespread irregularities in the voting process – there is simply no possibility that the victory of the Democratic Party can be overturned.

And though it is true that some die-hard supporters of Trump are still venting their ire in manifold ways across America, the fear – once quite palpable – of physical violence and clashes on the streets has more or less virtually dissolved. In any case, there is no more talk, or whispers, of an impending civil war.

Notable, too, is that although the vast majority of Republican politicos are cravenly still keeping mum, as far as congratulating Biden and Harris goes, former Republican President George W. Bush, and Republican senator and former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney of Utah, have graciously done so.

As of the present media estimates, the Democratic Party has secured 290 Electoral College votes against 214 of the Republican party, with 270 seats representing the majority or the magic number.

While counting in a few states continues, where Biden leads, there is no mathematical possibility that Trump will emerge the winner – even if he wins all remaining states.

That is why, no doubt, although many governments and world leaders are still keeping silent, most world leaders have come forth with congratulatory messages for president-elect Biden and his running mate, vice-president-elect Kamala Harris.

They include Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom; Prime Minister Benjamin Nethanyahu of Israel; Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany; President Emanuel Macron of France; and Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia.

And while it is striking that Russian President Vladimir Putin, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopes Obrador, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have – among others – remained eloquently silent, there have been belated congratulatory messages from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – who long ago had hitched his stars to what he imagined was the Trump bandwagon – and the controversial Saudi ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Interestingly, Nethanyahu, while being quick to congratulate Biden, pointedly did not use the words ‘president-elect’ and ‘vice-president-elect’ while addressing Biden and Harris.

It may be mentioned, too, that despite claims of rigging and so forth by Trump and Company, the Republican Party have improved its position in the House of Representatives and may also maintain its majority in the Senate – after run-off elections to the two Senate seats in Georgia are held in early January 2021.

HIGHEST POPULAR VOTES EVER

Also to be noted is that Trump himself, with over 70 million votes to his credit, has already far exceeded his 2016 tally of popular votes secured. Of course, Biden has, at present, a record of securing more than 74 million popular votes – the most that any presidential candidate in history has ever garnered!

Altogether, there were 150 million plus popular votes cast; with more than 100 million votes coming in the shape of mail-in ballots & early voting.

As expected by many, including this observer, the huge surge in overall voter turnout helped facilitate Biden’s path to victory.

As I predicted in an earlier column, it was not only massively resorted to by Democratic voters in the age of Covid-19 but was clearly the foundation on which rested the Trump campaign’s false pre-election propaganda against it, not to mention their relentless efforts to subvert or suppress it.

It speaks volumes of Biden’s preparedness for his new job as the 46th President of the United States, come 20 January 2021, that he has hit the ground running, already constituting a Covid taskforce.

Though he has even publicly appealed to Republican voters to now unite behind him in meeting the challenges of the future, he has his immediate work cut out for him.

Apart from grappling with the multi-dimensional aspects of the pandemic, still furiously raging in the country, he has to manage and restore the battered economy, reform and repair race relations, besides taking on the diverse challenges posed by climate change.

Given Trump’s present posture and petulance, it is a good thing that Biden has seemingly decided to go slow on the transition – for now, at least, giving time for Trump to simmer down and accept the inevitability of the verdict of Election 2020.

That his job ahead will be an arduous one is self-evident, particularly given that in all probability the Senate will remain under Republican control while the Democratic hold on the House will diminish somewhat.

On the positive side of the ledger is, of course, that Biden has nearly 50 years of political experience: eight years on the executive side of government and the rest in the legislative wing, including the Senate.

He has a well-deserved reputation of a political healer or unifier, attributes that will be eminently useful – for him and the country.

Biden’s grit and determination have been underscored amply during the long and successful campaign that he just led – not to mention two earlier presidential bids that failed: in 1988 and 2008.

During his journey to the White House he has faced and overcome personal tragedies and political traumas and should, even on that basis, mentally well-equipped to face the onerous tasks and hurdles of the American presidency.

WHAT TO EXPECT

The humungous global interest in the outcome of the just-concluded American presidential election is a fact of the current international political/diplomatic scene.

That is why, for example, scores of political pundits and crystal-ball gazers the world over have lately been on over-drive predicting what kind of foreign/security policy the Biden administration will bring forth.

Speaking for myself, I believe that it is far too early to predict what Biden’s policies affecting the world will be, except in the most broad or general of terms.

Given his vast political/diplomatic experience and savvy, including many years as chair, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, there can be little doubt that the path he chooses to hew will be based on his perception of America’s national interest and how he envisages the United States’ role and international standing.

I would imagine that Biden will pick a first-rate team of colleagues and special assistants of proven merit and experience who worldviews broadly coincide with his.

Since the completion of this key task will in itself be time-consuming it would be reckless to indulge in fanciful predictions at this time.

Besides, it will not be reasonable to expect great or dramatic departures from the foreign policy trends and predilection of the Obama years – at least until after the entire group is ready to go and begin to work harmoniously as a team. This might well be sometime in mid-2021.

Before that, Biden will conceivably begin to repair relations with American allies, particularly though not exclusively in Europe. His policies with respect to America’s perceived adversaries – say, Russia, China, Iran and possibly North Korea – will not be markedly different from what it has been in years prior to the disruption of the Trump interregnum.

While conceived to protect and promote the American interest – political, economic and strategic – in specific countries and regions of the world, they would, I believe, be implemented in a pragmatic, predictable and consistent manner unlike what it has been in the past four years.

While Biden’s foreign/security policies will certainly not be a replica of the disorderly Trumpian model, there will not be overly disruptive 180 degree U-turns, either. Where changes are instituted they should be graded and gradual.

The exceptions would be Biden’s efforts to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal scrubbed by Trump of 2015; rejoining WHO whose role in coordinating an effective global response to Covid-19 is absolutely vital; and rejoining the Paris Climate Accord of 2015, which Trump walked away from.

As far as we in Nepal are concerned, let us realize that America’s overall foreign policy under the Biden administration would be mainly influenced by America’s policies vis-à-vis India and China – not to mention Nepal’s own policies and priorities vis-à-vis the United States.

Off the cuff, what can be stated is that Nepal should continue a policy of friendship and cooperation not only with India or China or the United States but with all three.

That may not be as easy as it sounds: but that is what Nepal’s geostrategic location and America’s global status call for.

While there should be much more to write about on this score in the future, at this juncture two things need to be said: Biden’s policies towards India will not – repeat not – be conditioned by the misconception in India that Kamala Harris being vice-president will automatically render American policies pro-Indian.

She is an American, a woman of Jamaican and Indian extraction who has been a fierce campaigner of human rights, among other attributes, and who has been critical of the Modi’s government’s record on human rights, including in Kashmir.

Secondly, it is significant that one high-level Trump administration official abruptly fired after Biden’s electoral spectacular is none other than Defense Secretary Mark Esper who, among other things, was one of the architects of the Indo-U.S. defense deals done in the Indian capital recently.

Esper and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had travelled to India specifically for the purpose.

The writer can be reached at: manajosse@gmail.com