Will NCP split?

By Our Political Analyst 

Three years after the creation of the Nepal Communist Party through a dramatic unification between the two rival communist parties — CPN-UML and Maoist Centre, just a few weeks before the 2017 elections, the party is now on the verge of a split.

The intra-party dispute that manifested first in May with the desire of Bam Dev Gautam to reach the parliament though was resolved by meeting his demand in September, has now escalated to the level of party split with Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who is one of the chairmen of the unified party, openly telling another chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal to breach the party in consensus this week.

It was reported that Prime Minister Oli proposed to break the party when Chief Minister of Karnali Mahendra Bahadur Shahi in the backing of Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal prepared to dismiss the ministers loyal to PM Oli. Of course, the latest dispute in the ruling NCP has reached its new height after the assembly members of Karnali State loyal to PM Oli registered a no-trust motion against Chief Minister Shahi. But when Dahal-Nepal camp jointly foiled the game, it irked PM Oli and his courtiers.

However, even before the Karnali incident in mid-October, PM Oli had shocked Dahal and Nepal camp by appointing ambassadors and reshuffling the cabinet without consulting with Dahal, which was a breach of the agreement reached on September 11. Dahal and Nepal were irked more when PM Oli picked Dr Yuba Raj Khatiwada as Nepali ambassador to the USA.

Of course, the old habit of Oli not to listen to the party decision, and the ambition of Dahal to again lead the government have resulted in the current feud. Deputy Prime Minister Ishwar Pokhrel on Tuesday openly blamed Dahal for the latest dispute while party spokesperson blamed PM Oli for the same.

Going by the growing enmity between Oli and Dahal, one could suspect split is imminent in the communist party. However, as any split in the party could end the political career of the leaders of either group, efforts are likely to be made to mend the dispute, and such process has already begun by President Bidya Bhandari. On Tuesday, she called Bam Dev Gautam at her office and urged him to work to maintain unity in the party. External force, mostly from the northern neighbour, is also likely to try to maintain unity in the communist party.

In case the party splits and the former UML leaders remain with Oli, the fate of Dahal will be uncertain because the Maoists alone cannot win elections. Had there not been unity before the 2017 polls, the Maoist would have become a tiny party with many leaders, including Dahal losing the elections.

Some have argued that Oli had unified the party with an ill intention of ending the political career of Maoists, and he wants to apply his tactics right now.

However, when leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalanath Khanal and Bhim Rawal are not happy with Oli, it is unlikely that they will back Oli, and if Nepal, Khanal and Dahal stand together as in the recent Karnali incident, Oli will be in minority and he will be facing blame for the split. If that happens, the government in the centre, as well as six of the seven states, will be in trouble. As such, both camps will try to lure Nepali Congress to form the governments.

If broke as intended by Oli, Dahal will become a leader of the tiny party. However, these are Khanal and Nepal who will be in the most difficult position if the party broke as reported now because they could not feel comfortable to remain under the former Maoists.

Moreover, any split in the ruling party could invite political instability and could become a beginning point for the elimination of the communists because divided communists cannot win elections.