Spread the love

Review of World Politics

Nagorno-Karabach Bone of Contention

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

Two weeks back, decades-old tensions flared up in heavy military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet-era republics in the southern Caucasus in West Asia. There were fears that an all-out war would again ignite if external powers did not remain aloof.

The bone of contention was the contested Nagorno-Karabach region – a de facto exclave of Armenia fully within Azerbaijan territory. The heavily forested patch of land is at the heart of a decades-long armed standoff between neighbours Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another exclave – Nakhichevan – that of Azerjaiban between Armenia and Iran is not disputed.

Azerbaijan claims Nagorno-Karabach as its own territory under international law, but this is disputed and not generally recognized. It was originally Azerbaijan territory, but this was a long way back, and the ethnic Armenians who make up the vast majority of the population had rejected Azerbaijan rule. They have been running their own affairs, with support from Armenia, since Azerbaijani forces were pushed out in a war in the 1990s (Al Jazeera, 27 September 2020).

Last Sunday, heavy clashes in Nagorno-Karabach prompted fears that the dispute could spiral once again into all-out war.

The status of the region has been disputed since 1918, when Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent from the Czarist Russian empire.

Armenia: Historical Antecedents

Armenian culture dates from the 6th century BCE. Armenians are descended from the ancient Phrygians. Armenia has a very checkered history being subjugated by Rome, the Byzantine Empire, Persia and the Mongol Empire. This culminated in two centuries of rule in the Ottoman Empire. In 1828, north-east Armenia was ceded by the Ottoman Turks to Russia. Agitation for independence developed in both Russian and Turkish Armenia. This lead to a series of large-scale massacres that culminated in the mass deportation of Armenians by the republican Turkish government of Kemal Ataturk in which an estimated one-and-a-half million died.(Oxford Dictionary of World History, 2006, pp. 33-34)

An independent republic of Armenia was proclaimed in 1920, but in 1922 was amalgamated with Georgia and Azerbaijan as the Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Republic in the Soviet Union. However, a three-way split was made in 1936 and the separate Soviet Socialist Republics of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan were born as members of the Soviet Union.

The autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabach, inhabited by Christian Armenians [and claimed by Armenia] formed an enclave within Azerbaijan, and that of Nakhichevan [not disputed and with Muslim majority] formed an exclave of Azerbaijan between Armenia and Iran.

In 1989, ethnic violence erupted over the status of the Nagorno-Karabah region [majority Christians] which was then within Azerbaijan [Shi’ite Muslims].

Armenia became independent in 1991, having declared itself no longer part of the Soviet Union.

A full-scale war that broke out in 1992, killed an estimated 30,000 people. Sporadic violence in Nagorno-Karabach has continued despite a ceasefire agreement in 1994. Armenia temporarily withdrew from peace talks in 1995. In 1996 Nagorno-Karabach unilaterally declared independence under the doctrine of self-determination [vide: 1970 Declaration of Principles of International Law].

Azerbaijan’s Historical Background

In 1991, Azerbaijan also declared its independence as a Shi’ite Muslim state and the Nakhichevan region also declared its own independence in 1992.

Azerbaijan is situated in West Asia in the Caucasus on the west coast of the Caspian Sea. It is bordered by Armenia to the west, Georgia and Russia to the north, and Iran to the south.

The country comprises the area conquered by Russia in the 18th century. The remainder of the traditional Azerbaijani area is now incorporated in Iran. By 1914 it was the largest oil-producing area in the world, centred in Baku, the capital.

After the Bolshevik Revolution in Russia of 1917, it declared its independence, but in 1920 was conquered by the Red Army. The Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic was created in 1922.

Recent Developments

Accusations have been flying forth between the two capitals Yerevan and Baku, and it is very difficult to verify the daily escalating actions and reactions. Both sides accuse each other of launching attacks. Actually, it is a triangular affair, with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on one side and Azerbaijan launching attacks on both. 

The fighting that broke out more than a week ago between Azeri and ethnic Armenian forces of Nagorno Karabach has now intensified and spread far beyond the self-declared independent region. Because Russia has been remarkably quiescent in its own backyard [it has a strategic partnership with Armenia], that the international constellation in the region is unstable and/or in its favour, Azerbaijan probably calculated that the time was ripe to change the status quo of more than 30 years to its advantage.  

The leader of Nagorno-Karabach has conceded that his forces had targeted a military airbase in Ganja in Azerbaijan – a town with a population of 335,000 about 100 km north of the Karabakh capital Stepanakert and 80 km from the Armenian city of Vardenis – but later stopped firing to avoid civilian casualties.

Karabakh’s autonomous forces said they had targeted and destroyed an airbase in Ganja, and the region’s leader ArayikHarutyunyan warned that it would now consider “military facilities in Azerbaijan’s big cities” as legitimate targets. (AFP/Agence France Press, October 5, 2020). Ganja is the strategic centre for Azerbaijan’s oil and gas pipelines to the West. 

Azerbaijan claims to have made decisive gains in Karabakh in recent days, with its defence ministry saying that 14 settlements have been taken as well as a strategical plateau.

In an address to the country on Saturday, Armenian Prime Minister NikolPashinyan said Armenians were facing a “decisive moment” and called for the nation to come together.

The self-proclaimed sovereign Nagorno-Karabakh is not recognized as independent by any country – including Armenia – and the territory [which is, of course, politically and militarily supported by Armenia, because of its majority Armenian ethnic majority] claimed on Saturday that international recognition was “the only way towards peace and security in the region. (AFP)

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claims that Armenia’s withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh is the sole condition to end the fighting.

On the other hand, Armenian Prime Minister NikolPashinian insists that “ a cease-fire can be established only if Turkey is removed from the South Caucasus.” (Associated Press, October 5, 2020.

Yerevan has accused Turkey of dispatching mercenaries from Syria and Libya to the fighting – an allegation confirmed and denounced by both Russia and France – both, together with the United States co-chairs of the Minsk Group.

If peace and tranquillity are to return to the region, the status quo ante must be restored. All parties must recognize that the attempt to change the status quo after such a long time [as in the case of Kashmir], and that too by force, is against all international norms. The behaviour of the leading participants reminds one of an operatic tragicomedy [like that of Donald Trump and his closest advisers in the coronavirus pandemic] were it not for the deadly serious background.

International Repercussions

The OSCE Minsk Group was created in 1992 by the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), now the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), to encourage a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh [although technically/geographically all these territories lie in Asia!].

The Minsk Group headed by the co-chairmanship of France, Russia and the U.S. also includes the participating states of Belarus, Germany, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Turkey, as well as, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The OSCE Minsk Group has been accused of complete inefficacy. This is perhaps because it is such a diverse group with most members having little or no national interest in the region. Furthermore, the parent organization OSCE has not been very active of late.

This despite being the world’s largest security-oriented intergovernmental organization! Its mandate includes issues such as arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and fair elections. It employs around 3,460 people, mostly in its field operations but also in its secretariat in Vienna. It has its origins in the 1975 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) held in Helsinki, Finland.

The organization has ignored or been helpless in solving Europe’s many emerging problems and crises, as those in Belarus or the maritime conflict between Greece and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is on hold like SAARC.

Turkey’s Outsize Role

When the long-simmering conflict in the south Caucasus burst into open warfare, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first international leader to jump into the fray – not to calm tensions between the warring parties, but to declare all-out support for the Azerbaijanis, their Turkic allies (NYT/New York Times, October 3-4, 2020).

Turkey openly supports Azerbaijan with weapons and military training and is also actively engaged in the fighting. This is only one of several fronts where Erdogan has deployed troops, ships and aircraft with increasing readiness.

It is already engaged in the civil wars in Syria and Libya. It has mounted repeated military operations against Kurdish forces in Iraq and is pressing maritime territorial claims in disputes with Greece and Cyprus [both members of the EU]. This has alarmed Turkey’s NATO allies.

Erdogan’s aggressive foreign/national security policy has two-pronged aims. On the one hand, it is to divert attention from his domestic travails, at a time when the country is suffering economically and his ruling party’s popularity is diminishing significantly. Secondly, he wants to project Turkey’s resurgent image and role by taking advantage of the changing global dynamics, particularly the dwindling American role in the Middle East, deep divisions within the EU and NATO, and above all the devastating civil war in Syria, just across Turkey’s southern border.

With his powerful military [second only to that of the US in NATO], Erdogan wants to claim the title of the strongman of the Middle East/West Asia, propel Turkey as a regional great power, and perhaps regain some of the glory of the erstwhile Ottoman Empire.

The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com

People’s Review Print Edition